Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.7%

+690

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

11.0%

+812

RBI 1+

34.3%

+191

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.9%

95% CI · 13.5–14.3%

+618

Fair odds

1st AB

4.0%

Through AB2

7.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Contact+17%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast+14%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0252 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+14% (×1.14)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+690

High

+1255

Low

+400

Med

+670

Avg

+750

+690

Low +400High +1255

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.1

Proj PA

102

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.159

wOBA

.321

wRC+

105

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

18.8

Hard%

36.8

FB%

42.1

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

13.2

GB%

41.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

35.2

FB%

47.9

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

15.5

GB%

35.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

35.7

Hard%

39.5

FB%

32.6

Pull%

23.3

Soft%

9.3

GB%

51.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

20.8

Hard%

39.6

FB%

45.3

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

15.1

GB%

37.7

Away

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

34.4

FB%

39.3

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

11.5

GB%

44.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Yankee Stadium mild HR boost (+7)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (60% of career HRs)
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .25016 PA · 15d

OPS

.517

ISO

.067

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	4	1	0	1	.500
06-14	@ TOR	2	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ TOR	1	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ CLE	3	1	0	1	.333
06-08	@ CLE	1	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs BOS	4	1	0	0	.250
06-05	vs BOS	0	0	1	0	—
06-02	vs CLE	4	0	0	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball33PA	.071	.228	9.1	28.6	33	20.7
🐾CUCurveball11PA	.273	.222	12.5	33.3	88	45.5
🐾SLSlider13PA	.230	.381	14.3	62.5	50	34.3
🐾SISinker16PA	.214	.464	4.3	46.7	52	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.091	.257	11.1	33.3	41	7.0	95	26
vs RHP	—	.122	0.0	0.0	0	42.1	124	8

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.400	.264	16.7	33.3	83	41.2	95	10
vs RHP	no sample

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.428	.480	20.0	60.0	25	35.0	124	7

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.432	0.0	60.0	50	5.6	95	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.488	7.7	46.2	54	0.0	124	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

117

🐾vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rosario.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 3 of 5 career HRs (60%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.1

Avg EV on HRs

108.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/3

Avg LA on HRs

26.7°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.228
Whiff%
20.7
HH%
28.6
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
33
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 33 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.222
Whiff%
45.5
HH%
33.3
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
88
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.381
Whiff%
34.3
HH%
62.5
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .530). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FCCutter1

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP48PA	.222	.511	.824	10.0%	3
vs LHP69PA	.226	.452	.727	8.5%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home60PA	.182	.400	.683	9.1%	3
Away57PA	.270	.558	.856	9.1%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day37PA	.122	.364	.661	4.5%	1
🐾Night80PA	.270	.527	.815	12.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty39PA	.135	.324	.555	1
Runners On53PA	.362	.702	1.060	5
RISP37PA	.281	.531	.801	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs34PA	.062	.281	.546	0
1 Out40PA	.343	.629	.929	4
2 Outs43PA	.250	.500	.802	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.