Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.2%

+883

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

9.6%

+942

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

59.2%

-145

Hits 2+

17.3%

+477

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.3%

95% CI · 10.0–10.7%

+866

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-25%
Contact-10%
SP Contact-13%
Statcast+8%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0377 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 3 HR

Now

+885

High

+935

Low

+370

Med

+500

Avg

+575

🐾🐾🐾+885

Low +370🐾 HR money zoneHigh +935

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.8

Proj PA

380

HR / PA

.039

ISO

.189

wOBA

.326

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.1

Hard%

39.7

FB%

48.1

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

15.3

GB%

33.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

39.6

FB%

43.8

Pull%

47.9

Soft%

10.4

GB%

39.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

39.7

FB%

49.6

Pull%

46.1

Soft%

17.0

GB%

31.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

34.1

FB%

53.7

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

24.4

GB%

25.6

Away

HR/FB

19.1

Hard%

43.9

FB%

43.9

Pull%

52.3

Soft%

8.4

GB%

39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (35% of career HRs)
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.3%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.180↓ vs season .22557 PA · 15d

OPS

.703

ISO

.260

RBI

K-BB

16-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-08	vs WSH	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	@ CHC	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-06	@ CHC	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	@ CHC	2	2	2	4	2	0	4.000
💣 388ft · 102.5 EV · Sweeper💣 427ft · 107.0 EV · 4-Seamer
06-04	@ MIL	6	2	0	1	0	1	.500
06-03	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR8PA	—	.151	0.0	—	67	38.5
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR61PA	.379	.308	9.5	52.4	52	20.5
🐾SISinkervR51PA	.082	.331	2.3	37.2	72	14.0
🐾CHChangeupvR10PA	—	.335	25.0	50.0	75	47.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.151	0.0	0.0	67	38.5	112	8

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.261	.358	17.6	41.2	59	24.5	58	25
vs RHPTONIGHT	.379	.308	9.5	52.4	52	20.5	112	61

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.423	20.0	50.0	50	28.6	58	15
vs RHPTONIGHT	.082	.331	2.3	37.2	72	14.0	112	51

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.152	0.0	16.7	100	26.3	58	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.335	25.0	50.0	75	47.4	112	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Adames.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 18 of 52 career HRs (35%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#5#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.197

Barrel %

9.5

Hard Hit %

43.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.297

xBA

.225

Brl / PA %

6.30

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Avg EV on HRs

102.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

375

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

32.2°

Brl / PA %

6.30

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.151
Whiff%
38.5
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.308
Whiff%
20.5
HH%
52.4
BRL%
9.5
Pull%
52
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.331
Whiff%
14.0
HH%
37.2
BRL%
2.3
Pull%
72

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .392). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

KCKnuckle-Curve1

STSweeper1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP214PA	.209	.463	.757	8.8%	9
vs LHP77PA	.155	.324	.558	12.2%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home129PA	.147	.344	.584	7.9%	2
Away162PA	.233	.493	.802	11.2%	9

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day111PA	.192	.413	.683	9.0%	4
🐾Night180PA	.197	.435	.718	10.2%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty96PA	.293	.565	.867	6
Runners On101PA	.129	.344	.611	3
RISP69PA	.177	.403	.693	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs125PA	.154	.359	.615	3
1 Out84PA	.163	.413	.687	2
2 Outs82PA	.294	.547	.864	6

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.107	.393	.679	1
1-022PA	.095	.333	.606	0
0-127PA	.185	.370	.556	1
2-010PA	.600	1.300	2.000	1
0-228PA	.035	.214	.393	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-258PA	—	.017	.034	0
2-235PA	.314	.600	.886	3
3-245PA	.469	.719	1.185	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.