Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.6%

+844

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #4Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.8%

+918

RBI 1+

33.3%

+200

Hits 1+

58.9%

-143

Hits 2+

17.0%

+488

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.7%

95% CI · 19.2–20.1%

+409

Fair odds

1st AB

5.1%

Through AB2

9.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Contact+25%
SP Contact-2%
Statcast+9%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0393 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+9% (×1.09)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+835

High

+1500

Low

+290

Med

+682

Avg

+726

🐾+835

Low +290🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1500

BELOW ZONEspot score 69

Longer price than he's homered at (+470 to +470). Model sees less pop tonight.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4702026-07-09vs COLbook line

HomeBat 5thoff RHPSweeper

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.8

Proj PA

275

HR / PA

.043

ISO

.198

wOBA

.322

wRC+

105

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.6

Hard%

37.8

FB%

47.4

Pull%

49.4

Soft%

15.9

GB%

34.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

41.3

FB%

46.0

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

11.1

GB%

39.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

36.7

FB%

47.9

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

17.6

GB%

33.0

Home

HR/FB

6.2

Hard%

32.0

FB%

52.0

Pull%

46.4

Soft%

22.4

GB%

30.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

20.4

Hard%

43.7

FB%

42.9

Pull%

52.4

Soft%

9.5

GB%

38.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (35% of career HRs)
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (6.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.149↓ vs season .22351 PA · 15d

OPS

.642

ISO

.277

RBI

K-BB

14-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 400ft · 102.1 EV · Slider
06-16	@ ATL	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
06-14	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	vs CHC	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-12	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-08	vs WSH	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	@ CHC	4	0	0	0	0	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup21PA	—	.235	9.1	27.3	82	41.0
🐾SISinker68PA	.080	.339	5.3	40.0	67	18.9
🐾FCCutter29PA	.223	.314	12.5	45.8	54	21.2
🐾CUCurveball18PA	.236	.254	0.0	55.6	80	42.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.152	0.0	16.7	100	25.0	53	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.310	20.0	40.0	60	45.0	110	11

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.423	20.0	50.0	50	31.8	53	15
vs RHP	.075	.316	2.1	36.2	70	13.6	110	55

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.272	.360	14.3	47.6	52	22.7	110	25

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.197	0.0	25.0	75	35.7	110	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

100

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Adames.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Projected12 of 52 HRs · 23%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 18 of 52 career HRs (35%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#5#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.205

Barrel %

9.8

Hard Hit %

43.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.295

xBA

.223

Brl / PA %

6.50

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Avg EV on HRs

102.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

375

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

32.2°

Brl / PA %

6.50

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.235
Whiff%
41.0
HH%
27.3
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
82
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.339
Whiff%
18.9
HH%
40.0
BRL%
5.3
Pull%
67
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.314
Whiff%
21.2
HH%
45.8
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
54

Career vs Martín Pérez

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.263AVG · meaningful (22 PA)

OPS

.680

RBI

K-BB

6-3

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .392). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

KCKnuckle-Curve1

STSweeper1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 17 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP229PA	.222	.472	.760	8.8%	11
vs LHP78PA	.152	.319	.550	12.0%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home137PA	.139	.331	.565	7.1%	2
🐾Away170PA	.260	.519	.825	11.8%	11

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day115PA	.185	.398	.659	8.5%	4
🐾Night192PA	.217	.456	.737	10.2%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty103PA	.303	.576	.877	7
Runners On108PA	.120	.320	.570	3
RISP75PA	.162	.368	.635	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs128PA	.175	.383	.641	4
1 Out90PA	.186	.442	.720	3
2 Outs89PA	.268	.500	.792	6

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.