Home Run
14.1%
+607
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110
2+ RBI
11.8%
+749
RBI 1+
35.1%
+185
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter3.5%
95% CI · 3.3–3.8%
+2717
Fair odds
1st AB
0.8%
Through AB2
1.7%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+10%
- Temp+5%
- Contact-17%
- Statcast-10%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
- ·90F game
- ·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
- ·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0112 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park+10% (×1.10)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-10% (×0.90)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 5 games
Now
+605
High
+995
Low
+635
Med
+720
Avg
+758
+605
Low +635High +995
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
0.5
Proj PA
22
HR / PA
.024
ISO
.120
wOBA
.281
wRC+
75
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
20.5
FB%
42.1
Pull%
41.0
Soft%
20.5
GB%
31.6
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
27.3
FB%
42.9
Pull%
40.9
Soft%
22.7
GB%
33.3
vs RHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
11.8
FB%
41.2
Pull%
41.2
Soft%
17.6
GB%
29.4
Home
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
16.7
FB%
38.9
Pull%
38.9
Soft%
27.8
GB%
44.4
🐾Away
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
23.8
FB%
45.0
Pull%
42.9
Soft%
14.3
GB%
20.0
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
- 91°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (110)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.071↓ vs season .25014 PA · 15d
OPS
.142
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
4-0
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | @ NYM | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 06-10 | @ CHW | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-09 | @ CHW | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 |
| 06-07 | vs PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-06 | vs PIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-04 | vs TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 05-05 | @ PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 05-03 | vs CLE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF15PA | — | .430 | 23.1 | 40.0 | 39 | 13.3 |
| SI13PA | — | .357 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 46 | 5.9 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .415 | 22.2 | 33.3 | 33 | 13.6 | -28 | 12 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | — | .491 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 50 | 16.7 | -58 | 8 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .366 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 50 | 0.0 | -28 | 6 |
| vs RHP | — | .349 | 0.0 | 28.6 | 43 | 23.1 | -58 | 8 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
99
🐾vs RHB
111
vs SHB
105
Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wynns.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).
1
·
2
·
3
·
1
4
🐾
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#4
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .473). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP30PA | — | .036 | .136 | 4.5% | 0 |
| vs LHP27PA | — | .120 | .274 | 8.3% | 0 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home26PA | — | .043 | .197 | — | 0 |
| 🐾Away31PA | — | .100 | .200 | 10.7% | 0 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Day35PA | — | .063 | .181 | 9.1% | 0 |
| Night22PA | — | .095 | .231 | — | 0 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty16PA | — | .125 | .250 | 0 |
| Runners On27PA | — | .042 | .157 | 0 |
| RISP17PA | — | — | .059 | 0 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs21PA | — | .056 | .206 | 0 |
| 1 Out17PA | — | .125 | .301 | 0 |
| 2 Outs19PA | — | .053 | .106 | 0 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-07PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 1-04PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0-18PA | — | .125 | .250 | 0 |
| 2-01PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0-212PA | — | .167 | .333 | 0 |
| 3-03PA | — | — | 1.000 | 0 |
| 1-28PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2-211PA | — | .091 | .182 | 0 |
| 3-22PA | — | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.