Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

23.1%

+333

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 117

2+ RBI

16.7%

+498

RBI 1+

39.6%

+153

Hits 1+

63.0%

-170

Hits 2+

20.8%

+381

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

24.1%

95% CI · 23.6–24.5%

+316

Fair odds

1st AB

7.4%

Through AB2

13.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast+14%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0331 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+14% (×1.14)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+335

High

+885

Low

+420

Med

+470

Avg

+569

+335

Low +420High +885

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.2

Proj PA

206

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.182

wOBA

.323

wRC+

105

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

37.9

FB%

39.9

Pull%

57.9

Soft%

14.4

GB%

38.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

15.0

FB%

31.6

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

40.0

GB%

31.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.1

Hard%

40.6

FB%

40.8

Pull%

58.9

Soft%

11.4

GB%

39.1

Home

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

34.0

FB%

39.4

Pull%

61.0

Soft%

14.0

GB%

40.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

42.1

FB%

40.4

Pull%

54.7

Soft%

14.7

GB%

36.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (56% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .989 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (7.0%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.267↑ vs season .24636 PA · 15d

OPS

.989

ISO

.333

RBI

K-BB

6-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-16	@ NYY	2	1	1	1	1	0	2.000
💣 —
06-14	vs LAD	4	2	0	1	0	0	.750
06-13	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	vs LAD	4	1	1	1	1	2	1.000
💣 387ft · 99.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	vs ATL	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs ATL	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-07	@ PHI	2	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball63PA	.291	.348	17.0	57.1	70	26.2
🐾CHChangeup33PA	.152	.337	8.0	28.0	76	26.6
🐾SISinker34PA	.172	.357	11.5	50.0	65	19.4
🐾STSweeper12PA	—	.406	0.0	50.0	67	25.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.205	0.0	25.0	75	30.0	26	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.309	.361	18.6	58.1	70	23.3	110	62

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.167	.324	9.1	31.8	73	26.2	110	30

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.111	.523	25.0	50.0	88	16.0	26	9
vs RHP	.227	.313	5.6	50.0	56	17.4	110	27

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.388	0.0	42.9	57	22.6	110	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Benintendi.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 14 of 25 career HRs (56%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.184

Barrel %

10.8

Hard Hit %

48.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.322

xBA

.246

Brl / PA %

7.00

Max EV (mph)

106.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.4

Avg EV on HRs

104.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

30.5°

Brl / PA %

7.00

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.348
Whiff%
26.2
HH%
57.1
BRL%
17.0
Pull%
70
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.337
Whiff%
26.6
HH%
28.0
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
76
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
19.4
HH%
50.0
BRL%
11.5
Pull%
65

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .474). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 13 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP194PA	.213	.460	.769	11.9%	8
vs LHP35PA	.031	.219	.454	12.5%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home106PA	.200	.421	.707	13.6%	3
🐾Away123PA	.171	.423	.732	10.3%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day100PA	.202	.404	.677	11.3%	4
🐾Night129PA	.171	.436	.754	12.4%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty83PA	.197	.421	.710	3
Runners On102PA	.193	.443	.760	4
RISP64PA	.207	.509	.874	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs70PA	.190	.460	.764	2
1 Out67PA	.150	.367	.651	2
2 Outs92PA	.205	.434	.738	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.