Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.3%

+711

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

10.8%

+828

RBI 1+

34.2%

+193

Hits 1+

65.7%

-191

Hits 2+

23.6%

+325

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.3%

95% CI · 7.0–7.6%

+1276

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
Contact-17%
Statcast-5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0182 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 1 HR

Now

+710

High

+1310

Low

+510

Med

+795

Avg

+855

🐾+710

Low +510🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1310

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.5

Proj PA

323

HR / PA

.017

ISO

.110

wOBA

.293

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

30.4

FB%

43.3

Pull%

32.0

Soft%

13.9

GB%

38.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

3.0

Hard%

30.8

FB%

42.3

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

16.7

GB%

42.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

30.2

FB%

44.0

Pull%

30.2

Soft%

12.1

GB%

35.3

Home

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

34.1

FB%

46.6

Pull%

30.7

Soft%

12.5

GB%

37.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.7

Hard%

27.4

FB%

40.6

Pull%

33.0

Soft%

15.1

GB%

38.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
Hot streak: .949 OPS over last 15 days
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (4.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.297↑ vs season .26243 PA · 15d

OPS

.949

ISO

.271

RBI

K-BB

7-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ NYM	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-10	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ CHW	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333
06-07	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-06	vs PIT	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-05	vs PIT	4	2	1	3	0	1	1.500
💣 405ft · 101.2 EV · Curveball
06-04	vs TOR	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
💣 380ft · 103.2 EV · Slider
06-03	vs TOR	4	1	1	3	0	0	1.000
💣 405ft · 103.2 EV · Sinker

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
CUCurveball16PA	.500	.429	22.2	40.0	89	26.7
FCCutter21PA	.167	.366	5.6	29.4	44	17.1
SISinker44PA	.128	.354	8.3	35.5	28	15.1
SLSlider33PA	.233	.325	9.1	33.3	73	29.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.411	0.0	20.0	100	18.2	77	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	1.750	.841	50.0	75.0	75	14.3	120	4

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.181	.409	9.1	36.4	46	5.9	77	13
vs RHP	.125	.310	0.0	14.3	43	19.0	120	9

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.363	.443	20.0	50.0	20	3.6	77	11
vs RHP	.029	.318	3.8	30.8	31	12.7	120	38

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.100	.273	0.0	28.6	43	33.3	77	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.273	.347	13.3	40.0	87	27.8	120	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Dubón.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.149

Barrel %

6.2

Hard Hit %

28.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.314

xBA

.262

Brl / PA %

4.70

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

389

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.3°

Brl / PA %

4.70

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .341). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FSSplitter1

SLSlider1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP161PA	.176	.453	.784	6.3%	5
vs LHP99PA	.099	.330	.623	4.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home116PA	.185	.463	.791	6.1%	4
🐾Away144PA	.115	.359	.667	5.4%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day72PA	.090	.299	.563	4.3%	0
Night188PA	.169	.448	.785	6.4%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty99PA	.077	.264	.517	1
Runners On105PA	.193	.516	.910	3
RISP64PA	.241	.586	.983	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.123	.393	.679	2
1 Out83PA	.150	.397	.726	2
2 Outs86PA	.169	.429	.766	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-031PA	.097	.387	.677	0
1-018PA	.334	.667	1.000	2
0-130PA	—	.167	.333	0
2-011PA	.363	.545	.727	1
0-231PA	.064	.290	.516	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-242PA	.146	.439	.749	1
2-230PA	.166	.333	.500	1
3-228PA	.096	.286	.679	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.