Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.5%

+1225

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #7Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.2%

+1127

RBI 1+

31.8%

+215

Hits 1+

67.0%

-203

Hits 2+

25.0%

+301

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.7%

95% CI · 5.4–6.0%

+1654

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Contact+3%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0187 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+1020

High

+1300

Low

+725

Med

+860

Avg

+899

🐾+1020

Low +725🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1300

WARMspot score 96

Just below his HR money zone (+850 to +850). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+8502026-06-23vs SDbook line

AwayBat 5thoff LHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.9

Proj PA

257

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.117

wOBA

.296

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

31.3

FB%

39.1

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

14.8

GB%

41.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

36.3

FB%

40.7

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

15.9

GB%

42.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

9.0

Hard%

28.1

FB%

38.1

Pull%

30.9

Soft%

14.0

GB%

40.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

34.4

FB%

43.8

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

13.7

GB%

37.7

Away

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

28.7

FB%

35.2

Pull%

31.9

Soft%

15.6

GB%

44.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CU)
Hot streak: .947 OPS over last 15 days
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (4.7%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.304↑ vs season .27051 PA · 15d

OPS

.947

ISO

.283

RBI

K-BB

6-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SF	4	1	1	2	1	0	1.000
💣 395ft · 105.1 EV · Slider
06-16	vs SF	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-14	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-13	@ NYM	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-12	@ NYM	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-10	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ CHW	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333
06-07	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	1	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR40PA	.027	.305	3.7	33.3	30	13.7
🐾CUCurveballvR4PA	1.750	.841	50.0	75.0	75	14.3
🐾CHChangeupvR7PA	.143	.207	14.3	14.3	43	5.3
🐾FCCuttervR9PA	.125	.310	0.0	14.3	43	18.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.334	.421	18.2	45.5	27	3.4	80	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.027	.305	3.7	33.3	30	13.7	115	40

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.411	0.0	20.0	100	18.2	80	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	1.750	.841	50.0	75.0	75	14.3	115	4

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.254	0.0	25.0	60	11.4	80	24
vs RHPTONIGHT	.143	.207	14.3	14.3	43	5.3	115	7

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.166	.418	8.3	41.7	42	5.3	80	14
vs RHPTONIGHT	.125	.310	0.0	14.3	43	18.2	115	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

100

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Dubón.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Projected0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.149

Barrel %

6.1

Hard Hit %

28.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.322

xBA

.270

Brl / PA %

4.70

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

389

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.3°

Brl / PA %

4.70

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.305
Whiff%
13.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
3.7
Pull%
30
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.841
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
75.0
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
75
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.207
Whiff%
5.3
HH%
14.3
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
43

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .341). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FSSplitter1

SLSlider1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP168PA	.168	.445	.774	6.0%	5
vs LHP109PA	.120	.350	.644	5.4%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home125PA	.198	.474	.802	6.9%	5
Away152PA	.108	.353	.658	4.9%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day80PA	.080	.293	.556	3.9%	0
🐾Night197PA	.178	.456	.793	6.7%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty106PA	.071	.255	.500	1
Runners On111PA	.212	.545	.945	4
RISP69PA	.270	.619	1.016	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs96PA	.118	.387	.679	2
1 Out89PA	.177	.430	.760	3
2 Outs92PA	.157	.410	.736	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.