Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.8%

+1174

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.3%

+1102

RBI 1+

31.9%

+213

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

1.7%

95% CI · 1.6–1.9%

+5748

Fair odds

1st AB

0.4%

Through AB2

0.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Contact-19%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0084 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 9 games

Now

+975

High

+1600

Low

+600

Med

+1100

Avg

+1098

+975

Low +600High +1600

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.5

Proj PA

HR / PA

.009

ISO

.075

wOBA

.281

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.1

Hard%

23.5

FB%

33.3

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

29.4

GB%

44.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

20.7

FB%

39.3

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

31.0

GB%

32.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

24.7

FB%

31.0

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

28.8

GB%

49.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

20.0

FB%

41.5

Pull%

32.7

Soft%

36.4

GB%

43.4

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.7

FB%

23.9

Pull%

51.1

Soft%

21.3

GB%

45.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
Hot streak: .584 OPS over last 15 days
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.231↓ vs season .25043 PA · 15d

OPS

.584

ISO

.051

RBI

K-BB

5-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs TOR	2	1	2	0	.500
06-16	vs TOR	4	1	0	2	.250
06-14	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	.250
06-13	vs TEX	4	2	0	0	.500
06-12	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	.250
06-10	@ TB	2	0	2	0	—
06-09	@ TB	3	2	0	0	1.000
06-08	@ TB	3	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball36PA	.034	.295	0.0	16.7	40	10.0
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider19PA	.177	.454	5.6	33.3	61	31.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.150	0.0	7.7	62	15.2	34	20
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.055	.398	0.0	23.5	24	2.7	117	24

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.383	0.0	26.7	60	25.0	117	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Kiner-Falefa.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Confirmed0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 3 of 3 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.295
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.454
Whiff%
31.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
61
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .331). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP88PA	.051	.380	.771	2.5%	0
vs LHP41PA	.081	.243	.487	5.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home68PA	.083	.333	.661	4.8%	1
Away61PA	.035	.339	.700	1.9%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day61PA	.038	.340	.723	3.4%	0
Night68PA	.079	.333	.642	3.6%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty46PA	.131	.368	.738	1
Runners On61PA	.035	.298	.598	0
RISP35PA	.060	.333	.627	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs40PA	.027	.405	.815	0
1 Out47PA	.119	.405	.767	1
2 Outs42PA	.027	.189	.451	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.