Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.4%

+962

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) (2.21 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

9.2%

+990

RBI 1+

32.7%

+206

Hits 1+

66.5%

-198

Hits 2+

24.4%

+309

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.6%

95% CI · 5.4–5.9%

+1674

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

3.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact-20%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Freeland (LHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0201 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-20% (×0.80)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+965

High

+1955

Low

+525

Med

+950

Avg

+1048

+965

Low +525High +1955

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.9

Proj PA

300

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.126

wOBA

.316

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.4

Hard%

27.0

FB%

33.5

Pull%

39.7

Soft%

17.8

GB%

44.5

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

31.3

FB%

32.3

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

25.0

GB%

48.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

26.1

FB%

33.8

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

16.2

GB%

43.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

24.4

FB%

37.2

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

14.1

GB%

44.9

Away

HR/FB

6.9

Hard%

29.2

FB%

30.5

Pull%

40.6

Soft%

20.8

GB%

44.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Kyle Freeland is leaky — 2.21 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (83% of career HRs)
87°F — ball flies in warm air
Pitcher HR-prone (2.21 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.094↓ vs season .26735 PA · 15d

OPS

.265

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

5-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-10	vs MIL	2	0	1	0	—
06-08	vs MIL	1	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ HOU	3	0	1	1	—
06-05	@ HOU	3	0	0	2	—
06-04	@ CHC	3	0	0	0	—
06-03	@ CHC	4	1	0	0	.250
06-02	@ CHC	4	1	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL13PA	—	.414	0.0	33.3	100	17.2
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter18PA	.176	.223	0.0	30.8	50	22.9
🐾CHChangeupvL4PA	—	.328	0.0	—	75	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.414	0.0	33.3	100	17.2	58	13
vs RHP	.049	.338	0.0	28.3	51	9.6	73	67

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.158	.224	0.0	26.7	53	25.0	73	20

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.328	0.0	0.0	75	0.0	58	4
vs RHP	.138	.266	3.7	29.6	59	20.3	73	30

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches McNeil.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 5 of 6 career HRs (83%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.073

Barrel %

1.1

Hard Hit %

30.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.304

xBA

.267

Brl / PA %

0.90

Max EV (mph)

105.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.4

Avg EV on HRs

101.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

395

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

33.0°

Brl / PA %

0.90

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Freeland · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.414
Whiff%
17.2
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
23
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.223
Whiff%
22.9
HH%
30.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.

Career vs Kyle Freeland (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Kyle Freeland (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.2	11.5	42.9	60	.450	8.8
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.6	—	52.6	—	.382	19.7
FCCutter	17.9	12.9	33.3	71	.363	16.7
CHChangeup	15.9	6.7	51.2	60	.371	15.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	44.4	56	.359	4.3	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.0	39.5	61	.465	11.3	58

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	16.7	67	.429	16.7	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.0	40.0	72	.348	15.0	29

CHChangeup16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	6.7	51.1	60	.372	14.0	54

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .409). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP186PA	.082	.325	.626	1.3%	2
🐾vs LHP42PA	.030	.206	.523	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home99PA	.072	.298	.621	—	0
Away129PA	.076	.311	.600	2.0%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day90PA	.039	.234	.515	—	0
🐾Night138PA	.095	.349	.668	1.7%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty78PA	.103	.324	.645	1
Runners On104PA	.055	.319	.649	0
RISP63PA	.056	.245	.531	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs76PA	.057	.257	.507	1
1 Out75PA	.044	.235	.478	0
2 Outs77PA	.123	.431	.847	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-037PA	—	.314	.639	0
1-015PA	.071	.357	.690	0
0-122PA	.045	.227	.409	0
2-09PA	—	—	—	0
0-223PA	—	.182	.356	0
3-05PA	—	—	.800	0
1-232PA	.097	.258	.446	1
2-232PA	.062	.281	.500	0
3-226PA	.058	.176	.600	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Sat.