Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

6.3%

+1493

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #8Projected lineup

2+ RBI

7.4%

+1242

RBI 1+

31.1%

+221

Hits 1+

67.0%

-203

Hits 2+

25.0%

+301

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.6%

95% CI · 4.4–4.9%

+2054

Fair odds

1st AB

0.9%

Through AB2

1.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
vs SP-35%
Contact-19%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast-15%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0201 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+850

High

+1805

Low

+700

Med

+935

Avg

+1039

+850

Low +700High +1805

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.1

Proj PA

215

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.138

wOBA

.319

wRC+

100

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.5

Hard%

26.2

FB%

37.1

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

16.3

GB%

41.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.1

FB%

38.3

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

22.9

GB%

42.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

4.4

Hard%

25.9

FB%

36.8

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

14.6

GB%

41.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

2.3

Hard%

23.4

FB%

41.1

Pull%

35.5

Soft%

15.0

GB%

41.1

Away

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

28.6

FB%

33.6

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

17.5

GB%

42.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (83% of career HRs)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.133↓ vs season .27034 PA · 15d

OPS

.468

ISO

.100

RBI

K-BB

5-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	1	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-16	vs PIT	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-15	vs PIT	4	3	1	4	0	0	1.500
💣 359ft · 99.9 EV · Changeup
06-14	vs COL	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	vs MIL	2	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-08	vs MIL	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ HOU	3	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker43PA	.051	.313	0.0	38.9	58	4.0
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball77PA	.046	.348	0.0	32.7	57	16.4
🐾FSSplit-Finger16PA	—	.177	0.0	30.8	62	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.077	.216	0.0	15.4	54	3.3	58	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.039	.360	0.0	52.2	61	2.2	78	29

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.414	0.0	33.3	100	17.2	58	13
vs RHP	.047	.336	0.0	28.6	52	9.4	78	71

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.177	0.0	30.8	62	14.3	78	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches McNeil.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Projected1 of 6 HRs · 17%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 5 of 6 career HRs (83%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.084

Barrel %

1.1

Hard Hit %

30.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.308

xBA

.270

Brl / PA %

0.80

Max EV (mph)

105.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.4

Avg EV on HRs

101.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

395

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

33.0°

Brl / PA %

0.80

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.313
Whiff%
4.0
HH%
38.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
58
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.348
Whiff%
16.4
HH%
32.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
57

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .409). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 24 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP198PA	.095	.341	.649	1.2%	3
vs LHP42PA	.030	.206	.523	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home111PA	.096	.330	.663	—	1
Away129PA	.076	.311	.600	2.0%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day94PA	.037	.225	.505	—	0
🐾Night146PA	.113	.376	.705	1.7%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty81PA	.100	.314	.635	1
Runners On109PA	.084	.365	.708	1
RISP67PA	.105	.333	.646	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs80PA	.055	.247	.497	1
1 Out78PA	.086	.300	.573	1
2 Outs82PA	.114	.414	.816	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.