🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
9.1%
95% CI · 8.8–9.4%
+1000
Fair odds
1st AB
1.8%
Through AB2
3.6%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-12%
SP Statcast-7%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)
·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0303 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj
Park0% (×1.00)
Wind+15% (×1.15)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-12% (×0.88)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)
SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 18 games
Now
+695
High
+1445
Low
+420
Med
+552
Avg
+666
+695
Low +420High +1445
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-07-16 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
9.3
Proj PA
272
HR / PA
.034
ISO
.171
wOBA
.320
wRC+
101
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG
Season
HR/FB
9.9
Hard%
28.9
FB%
43.8
Pull%
48.8
Soft%
14.9
GB%
35.7
vs LHP
HR/FB
9.2
Hard%
26.6
FB%
42.2
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
18.2
GB%
37.7
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
10.5
Hard%
31.0
FB%
45.2
Pull%
47.6
Soft%
11.9
GB%
33.9
🐾Home
HR/FB
13.4
Hard%
30.1
FB%
43.8
Pull%
52.3
Soft%
9.8
GB%
36.6
Away
HR/FB
6.8
Hard%
27.8
FB%
43.8
Pull%
45.6
Soft%
19.5
GB%
34.9
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
1.0 🐾
DART THROW
🛡Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (53% of career HRs)
🌬20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
🌧78% rain — delay/cancel risk
·Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.267↑ vs season .25951 PA · 15d
OPS
.714
ISO
.133
HR
1
RBI
6
K-BB
7-3
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-17
vs SF
5
2
0
0
0
1
.400
06-16
vs SF
4
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-14
@ NYM
4
0
0
0
0
1
—
06-13
@ NYM
4
1
0
0
0
0
.250
06-12
@ NYM
3
2
0
1
1
0
.667
06-10
@ CHW
5
1
0
0
0
0
.200
06-09
@ CHW
5
3
0
0
0
1
.800
06-07
vs PIT
4
1
0
0
0
2
.500
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR30PA
.154
.306
8.3
20.8
50
19.3
🐾CUCurveballvR21PA
—
.313
0.0
8.3
75
18.6
🐾CHChangeupvR35PA
.088
.223
3.2
25.8
74
16.9
🐾FCCuttervR13PA
.333
.492
0.0
50.0
50
22.2
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.105
.307
0.0
38.9
50
10.9
120
19
vs RHPTONIGHT
.154
.306
8.3
20.8
50
19.3
103
30
CUCurveball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.111
.296
0.0
11.1
83
10.3
120
20
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.313
0.0
8.3
75
18.6
103
21
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.250
.268
3.6
17.9
50
16.3
120
28
vs RHPTONIGHT
.088
.223
3.2
25.8
74
16.9
103
35
FCCutter
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.166
.201
0.0
50.0
75
21.1
120
6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT
.333
.492
0.0
50.0
50
22.2
103
13
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
100
vs RHB
95
🐾vs SHB
97
Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Albies.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Projected0 of 19 HRs · 0%
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 10 of 19 career HRs (53%).
Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.306
Whiff%
19.3
HH%
20.8
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
50
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.313
Whiff%
18.6
HH%
8.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.223
Whiff%
16.9
HH%
25.8
BRL%
3.2
Pull%
74
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 35 PA this season.
Career vs Landen Roupp (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
—AVG · small sample (5 PA)
OPS
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
SISinker
36.5
7.7
36.9
58
.355
19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY
27.6
2.3
16.3
80
.217
29.6
CHChangeup
19.2
0.0
26.2
71
.291
14.3
FCCutter
13.1
4.5
33.3
50
.295
21.9
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
SISinker37% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
4.8
35.7
60
.373
25.0
70
vs RHB
10.2
36.7
57
.332
11.6
57
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
5.6
33.3
100
.238
33.3
44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
7.7
65
.202
27.7
54
CHChangeup19% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
0.0
33.3
78
.304
14.3
52
vs RHB
0.0
0.0
38
.242
12.9
13
FCCutter13% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
10.0
40.0
70
.341
29.4
16
vs RHB
0.0
33.3
33
.245
17.6
15
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .355). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft
8 HRs this season
vs RHP 5vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4
CHChangeup3
FCCutter1
Bats S · Switch hitter
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
8
games since last HR
35
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP182PA
.135
.391
.726
4.4%
6
vs LHP132PA
.176
.480
.806
4.1%
4
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Home143PA
.165
.433
.762
4.2%
5
Away171PA
.143
.429
.762
4.3%
5
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Day91PA
.114
.392
.711
3.6%
2
🐾Night223PA
.169
.446
.782
4.5%
8
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty113PA
.112
.343
.608
2
Runners On143PA
.137
.452
.809
4
RISP71PA
.193
.544
.924
3
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs97PA
.239
.560
.952
5
1 Out110PA
.139
.419
.764
3
2 Outs107PA
.097
.337
.599
2
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.
