Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.4%

+858

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

9.7%

+927

RBI 1+

33.2%

+201

Hits 1+

64.5%

-182

Hits 2+

22.3%

+348

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

As LHB(vs RHP)

105wRC+

🐾As RHB(vs LHP)

130wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.0%

95% CI · 11.7–12.4%

+732

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
Contact-3%
Statcast-13%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·90F game
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0300 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-13% (×0.87)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+860

High

+855

Low

+430

Med

+620

Avg

+634

🐾+860

Low +430🐾 HR money zoneHigh +855

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.2

Proj PA

371

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.159

wOBA

.319

wRC+

101

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.1

Hard%

26.7

FB%

42.7

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

17.2

GB%

36.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

24.1

FB%

38.9

Pull%

50.9

Soft%

22.2

GB%

39.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

29.0

FB%

46.0

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

12.9

GB%

33.9

Home

HR/FB

11.6

Hard%

26.9

FB%

39.8

Pull%

52.8

Soft%

10.2

GB%

40.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.9

Hard%

26.6

FB%

45.2

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

23.4

GB%

33.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (53% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .861 OPS over last 15 days
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.326↑ vs season .25551 PA · 15d

OPS

.861

ISO

.162

RBI

K-BB

6-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ NYM	3	2	0	1	1	0	.667
06-10	@ CHW	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-09	@ CHW	5	3	0	0	0	1	.800
06-07	vs PIT	4	1	0	0	0	2	.500
06-06	vs PIT	1	0	0	2	0	1	—
06-05	vs PIT	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-04	vs TOR	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	vs TOR	4	2	1	3	0	0	1.500
💣 393ft · 106.6 EV · Slider

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FCCutter18PA	.286	.393	0.0	45.5	58	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball67PA	.259	.372	9.6	45.8	62	19.0
SLSlider27PA	.153	.307	4.3	22.7	65	21.0
SISinker45PA	.143	.303	4.8	27.5	50	13.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.166	.201	0.0	50.0	75	17.6	130	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.333	.492	0.0	50.0	50	23.1	105	13

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.273	.417	10.0	50.0	45	14.0	130	25
vs RHP	.243	.350	9.4	43.8	72	18.6	105	48

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.261	8.3	25.0	58	16.7	130	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.067	.347	0.0	18.2	73	23.7	105	16

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.105	.307	0.0	38.9	50	9.3	130	19
vs RHP	.160	.296	8.3	16.7	50	17.0	105	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

111

🐾vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Albies.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 10 of 19 career HRs (53%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.164

Barrel %

4.3

Hard Hit %

27.6

xwOBA

.309

xBA

.255

Brl / PA %

3.40

Max EV (mph)

107.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.6

Avg EV on HRs

101.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

386

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/8

Avg LA on HRs

31.9°

Brl / PA %

3.40

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .355). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

CHChangeup3

FCCutter1

Bats S · Switch hitter

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP175PA	.141	.403	.746	4.5%	6
vs LHP122PA	.191	.504	.840	3.5%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home134PA	.178	.449	.785	4.3%	5
🐾Away163PA	.150	.445	.789	3.8%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day83PA	.127	.423	.760	2.6%	2
Night214PA	.176	.456	.797	4.7%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty107PA	.118	.353	.624	2
Runners On134PA	.148	.470	.836	4
RISP69PA	.200	.564	.955	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs92PA	.253	.582	.984	5
1 Out104PA	.149	.448	.813	3
2 Outs101PA	.102	.337	.594	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-049PA	.177	.444	.689	2
1-021PA	.048	.286	.524	0
0-131PA	.300	.633	.956	3
2-08PA	—	.143	.268	0
0-229PA	.107	.464	.844	0
3-07PA	—	—	.714	0
1-240PA	.052	.184	.334	0
2-233PA	.094	.375	.678	0
3-236PA	—	.095	.567	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.