Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.1%

+1141

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

8.4%

+1086

RBI 1+

32.0%

+212

Hits 1+

57.5%

-136

Hits 2+

15.9%

+529

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.6%

95% CI · 11.2–11.9%

+764

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

5.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-25%
Contact+20%
SP Contact-16%
Statcast+10%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0421 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 2 HR

Now

+1140

High

+930

Low

+305

Med

+605

Avg

+633

🐾🐾+1140

Low +305🐾 HR money zoneHigh +930

WARMspot score 90

Just below his HR money zone (+605 to +885). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.3

Proj PA

380

HR / PA

.043

ISO

.201

wOBA

.343

wRC+

120

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

39.6

FB%

41.8

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

14.8

GB%

41.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

29.3

FB%

36.2

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

17.2

GB%

48.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

12.7

Hard%

44.4

FB%

44.4

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

13.7

GB%

38.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.2

Hard%

42.0

FB%

45.7

Pull%

35.8

Soft%

14.8

GB%

40.7

Away

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

37.6

FB%

38.6

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

14.9

GB%

42.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
50.0% hard-hit — punisher
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (73% of career HRs)
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
High barrels/PA (6.1%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.186↓ vs season .21668 PA · 15d

OPS

.701

ISO

.221

RBI

K-BB

23-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	vs WSH	4	1	1	1	1	1	1.000
💣 408ft · 101.3 EV · Cutter
06-09	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-08	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	@ CHC	3	0	0	0	1	3	—
06-06	@ CHC	4	1	1	1	1	1	1.000
💣 387ft · 108.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05	@ CHC	5	2	0	1	0	2	.600
06-04	@ MIL	6	1	0	0	0	1	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveball14PA	—	.335	—	57.1	—	14.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR88PA	.226	.256	12.8	57.4	47	34.2
🐾SISinkervR15PA	.200	.358	16.7	75.0	75	14.3
🐾CHChangeupvR24PA	.041	.342	14.3	61.9	48	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.222	.308	30.0	70.0	30	50.0	68	31
vs RHPTONIGHT	.226	.256	12.8	57.4	47	34.2	109	88

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.080	.300	0.0	38.1	71	11.4	68	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.200	.358	16.7	75.0	75	14.3	109	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.289	25.0	25.0	50	33.3	68	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.041	.342	14.3	61.9	48	16.7	109	24

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Devers.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 40 of 55 career HRs (73%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.182

Barrel %

9.9

Hard Hit %

50.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.292

xBA

.216

Brl / PA %

6.10

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Avg EV on HRs

105.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

404

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.7°

Brl / PA %

6.10

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CUCurveball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.335
Whiff%
14.8
HH%
57.1
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.256
Whiff%
34.2
HH%
57.4
BRL%
12.8
Pull%
47
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 88 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.358
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
75.0
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
75

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

.833

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .468). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter1

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP200PA	.210	.459	.754	11.6%	7
vs LHP99PA	.112	.303	.576	8.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home131PA	.213	.426	.686	10.3%	6
Away168PA	.152	.395	.705	10.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day119PA	.254	.518	.837	12.3%	5
🐾Night180PA	.128	.335	.602	9.3%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty93PA	.117	.291	.528	2
Runners On140PA	.142	.394	.701	2
RISP81PA	.147	.368	.689	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs96PA	.337	.629	.973	7
1 Out108PA	.080	.270	.501	1
2 Outs95PA	.129	.341	.636	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-019PA	.474	.737	1.000	2
1-021PA	.421	.895	1.371	2
0-122PA	.137	.682	1.227	0
2-08PA	.375	.750	1.125	1
0-236PA	.055	.194	.333	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-257PA	.193	.368	.544	2
2-253PA	.150	.358	.566	1
3-238PA	.108	.179	.494	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.