Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.4%

+866

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.7%

+931

RBI 1+

33.2%

+201

Hits 1+

58.1%

-139

Hits 2+

16.4%

+511

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.9%

95% CI · 18.4–19.3%

+430

Fair odds

1st AB

4.7%

Through AB2

9.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Lineup+3%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast+7%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0420 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+7% (×1.07)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 2 HR

Now

+825

High

+6000

Low

+250

Med

+448

Avg

+1043

🐾🐾+825

Low +250🐾 HR money zoneHigh +6000

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+8002026-06-30vs ARIbook line

AwayBat 4thoff RHPCutter

🐾+3852026-06-24vs ATHbook line

HomeBat 4thoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.7

Proj PA

275

HR / PA

.050

ISO

.223

wOBA

.350

wRC+

124

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.0

Hard%

39.7

FB%

43.6

Pull%

36.2

Soft%

14.4

GB%

38.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

34.5

FB%

44.0

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

16.7

GB%

41.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.3

Hard%

42.2

FB%

43.4

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

13.3

GB%

37.6

Home

HR/FB

17.2

Hard%

37.1

FB%

46.8

Pull%

36.3

Soft%

14.5

GB%

37.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

42.1

FB%

40.6

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

14.3

GB%

40.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (73% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .798 OPS over last 15 days
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (5.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.212↓ vs season .21960 PA · 15d

OPS

.798

ISO

.269

RBI

K-BB

16-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	3	2	0	1	1	1	1.333
06-16	@ ATL	4	1	1	1	1	1	1.000
06-14	vs CHC	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-13	vs CHC	4	2	0	0	0	1	.750
06-12	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	vs WSH	4	1	1	1	1	1	1.000
💣 408ft · 101.3 EV · Cutter
06-09	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-08	vs WSH	4	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup34PA	.118	.340	13.8	51.7	52	16.4
🐾SISinker43PA	.200	.322	6.2	53.1	72	13.5
🐾FCCutter28PA	.333	.335	5.0	47.4	80	31.9
🐾CUCurveball16PA	—	.300	—	50.0	—	18.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.289	25.0	25.0	50	33.3	72	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.354	12.0	56.0	52	15.1	117	28

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.080	.300	0.0	38.1	71	11.4	72	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.355	18.2	81.8	73	14.8	117	15

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.348	.325	5.6	44.4	83	28.3	117	27

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.347	0.0	50.0	100	16.7	117	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Devers.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected40 of 55 HRs · 73%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 40 of 55 career HRs (73%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.191

Barrel %

9.2

Hard Hit %

49.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.295

xBA

.219

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Avg EV on HRs

105.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

404

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.7°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.340
Whiff%
16.4
HH%
51.7
BRL%
13.8
Pull%
52
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.322
Whiff%
13.5
HH%
53.1
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
72
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.335
Whiff%
31.9
HH%
47.4
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
80

Career vs Martín Pérez

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .468). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter1

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP213PA	.215	.477	.792	11.1%	7
vs LHP103PA	.139	.333	.605	7.9%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home139PA	.209	.434	.707	9.5%	6
🐾Away177PA	.176	.428	.750	10.7%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day123PA	.248	.513	.838	11.9%	5
🐾Night193PA	.154	.377	.662	8.8%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty98PA	.154	.352	.607	3
Runners On148PA	.142	.398	.716	2
RISP85PA	.155	.380	.709	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs100PA	.337	.630	.980	7
1 Out111PA	.088	.284	.527	1
2 Outs105PA	.160	.394	.708	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.