Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.9%

+907

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

9.5%

+957

RBI 1+

33.0%

+203

Hits 1+

68.1%

-213

Hits 2+

26.2%

+282

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.4%

95% CI · 11.1–11.8%

+775

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

4.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP-24%
Contact+4%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-9%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0326 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+905

High

+905

Low

+390

Med

+565

Avg

+630

+905

Low +390High +905

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.3

Proj PA

359

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.152

wOBA

.320

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

35.3

FB%

36.5

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

22.2

GB%

43.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

33.9

Pull%

56.7

Soft%

33.3

GB%

49.2

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

41.0

FB%

37.5

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

18.0

GB%

41.9

Home

HR/FB

7.5

Hard%

33.6

FB%

37.4

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

26.2

GB%

42.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

36.8

FB%

35.7

Pull%

50.9

Soft%

18.4

GB%

45.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (91% of career HRs)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.245↓ vs season .27759 PA · 15d

OPS

.763

ISO

.208

RBI

K-BB

5-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ WSH	5	1	1	1	0	0	.800
06-11	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	@ BAL	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-09	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-08	@ BAL	4	2	1	4	0	0	1.250
💣 358ft · 92.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	@ DET	5	2	0	1	0	1	.600
06-06	@ DET	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-05	@ DET	4	2	0	0	1	1	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR73PA	.250	.370	6.3	33.3	51	6.7
🐾CUCurveballvR16PA	.125	.237	7.7	38.5	62	24.3
🐾SISinkervR27PA	—	.322	0.0	56.5	74	7.5
🐾STSweeper15PA	.307	.362	9.1	50.0	82	27.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.303	0.0	9.1	64	12.5	94	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.250	.370	6.3	33.3	51	6.7	101	73

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.125	.237	7.7	38.5	62	24.3	101	16

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.050	.303	0.0	40.0	85	7.1	94	20
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.322	0.0	56.5	74	7.5	101	27

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.363	.362	0.0	50.0	88	38.5	94	12
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Naylor.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 30 of 33 career HRs (91%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.109

Barrel %

5.0

Hard Hit %

38.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.327

xBA

.277

Brl / PA %

3.90

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Avg EV on HRs

105.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

25.4°

Brl / PA %

3.90

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.370
Whiff%
6.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
6.3
Pull%
51
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.237
Whiff%
24.3
HH%
38.5
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
62
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.322
Whiff%
7.5
HH%
56.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
74

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	34.6	14.3	41.3	48	.375	18.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.5	—	31.9	—	.268	28.4
SISinker	15.2	4.9	52.6	76	.345	26.9
STSweeper	11.6	4.3	35.0	52	.320	15.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	33.3	53	.357	16.4	78
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	54.2	33	.410	20.7	43

SISinker15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	70	.501	25.0	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.5	51.6	77	.285	25.0	41

STSweeper12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	—	—	—	.271	25.0	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	52	.337	10.0	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .409). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP211PA	.137	.384	.703	5.8%	7
vs LHP78PA	.069	.347	.668	1.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home140PA	.097	.339	.656	3.5%	3
🐾Away149PA	.138	.406	.728	5.9%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day103PA	.097	.344	.658	4.8%	2
Night186PA	.131	.391	.714	4.7%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty103PA	.063	.326	.640	1
Runners On126PA	.156	.339	.625	5
RISP76PA	.219	.438	.767	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs85PA	.113	.413	.754	2
1 Out94PA	.144	.349	.636	3
2 Outs110PA	.101	.364	.694	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-061PA	.085	.322	.568	1
1-033PA	.182	.576	.970	1
0-126PA	.346	.692	1.038	3
2-015PA	—	.214	.481	0
0-226PA	.038	.269	.500	0
3-08PA	—	—	.875	0
1-240PA	.025	.175	.325	0
2-233PA	—	.152	.303	0
3-223PA	.300	.600	1.296	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.