Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.6%

+843

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.8%

+917

RBI 1+

33.3%

+200

Hits 1+

67.5%

-207

Hits 2+

25.5%

+292

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.2%

95% CI · 10.9–11.6%

+789

Fair odds

1st AB

2.9%

Through AB2

5.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-9%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0343 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+775

High

+2000

Low

+455

Med

+558

Avg

+745

+775

Low +455High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.7

Proj PA

256

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.160

wOBA

.320

wRC+

110

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.2

Hard%

36.1

FB%

36.6

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

21.0

GB%

42.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

24.4

FB%

33.8

Pull%

47.4

Soft%

29.5

GB%

44.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.2

Hard%

40.1

FB%

37.6

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

18.1

GB%

41.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

33.6

FB%

36.4

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

24.3

GB%

42.9

Away

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

38.2

FB%

36.8

Pull%

43.6

Soft%

18.2

GB%

41.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (91% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (4.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.244↓ vs season .27349 PA · 15d

OPS

.750

ISO

.200

RBI

K-BB

5-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	@ WSH	3	1	0	0	0	0	.667
06-13	@ WSH	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ WSH	5	1	1	1	0	0	.800
💣 383ft · 106.6 EV · Slider
06-11	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	@ BAL	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250
06-09	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-08	@ BAL	4	2	1	4	0	0	1.250
💣 358ft · 92.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	@ DET	5	2	0	1	0	1	.600

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball87PA	.205	.350	5.2	31.5	53	8.2
🐾CUCurveball19PA	.105	.244	7.1	42.9	64	28.6
🐾FCCutter34PA	.134	.378	7.7	32.0	73	15.1
🐾CHChangeup34PA	—	.338	3.7	23.1	70	24.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.303	0.0	9.1	64	12.5	97	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.239	.361	6.1	33.3	52	6.5	98	76

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.125	.237	7.7	38.5	62	24.3	98	16

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.143	.395	8.3	33.3	71	8.3	98	31

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.253	0.0	0.0	50	28.6	97	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.352	4.3	26.1	74	23.5	98	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Naylor.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed0 of 33 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 30 of 33 career HRs (91%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.119

Barrel %

5.2

Hard Hit %

37.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.323

xBA

.273

Brl / PA %

4.10

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Avg EV on HRs

105.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

25.4°

Brl / PA %

4.10

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
8.2
HH%
31.5
BRL%
5.2
Pull%
53
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.244
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
42.9
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 19 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.378
Whiff%
15.1
HH%
32.0
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
73

Career vs Shane Baz

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .409). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP215PA	.134	.376	.689	6.1%	7
vs LHP81PA	.080	.360	.681	1.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home140PA	.097	.339	.656	3.5%	3
Away156PA	.138	.400	.714	6.2%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day110PA	.100	.340	.643	4.4%	2
Night186PA	.131	.391	.714	5.2%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty106PA	.061	.316	.621	1
Runners On129PA	.160	.348	.635	5
RISP77PA	.216	.431	.756	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs86PA	.111	.407	.744	2
1 Out97PA	.151	.360	.649	3
2 Outs113PA	.098	.353	.674	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.