Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

3.3%

+2954

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 75

2+ RBI

5.8%

+1624

RBI 1+

29.6%

+237

Hits 1+

70.0%

-234

Hits 2+

28.5%

+251

FG · Blended (2-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

1.4%

95% CI · 1.2–1.5%

+7217

Fair odds

1st AB

0.3%

Through AB2

0.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-25%
vs SP-25%
Contact-22%
SP Contact-16%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0094 · blended_2sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park-25% (×0.75)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-22% (×0.78)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+2960

High

+2520

Low

+545

Med

+1220

Avg

+1325

+2960

Low +545High +2520

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.0

Proj PA

356

ISO

.057

wOBA

.307

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

2.1

Hard%

26.4

FB%

37.1

Pull%

32.2

Soft%

10.0

GB%

39.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

19.3

FB%

30.4

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

8.4

GB%

48.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

1.4

Hard%

29.8

FB%

40.1

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

10.7

GB%

35.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

24.5

FB%

33.0

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

11.8

GB%

46.2

Away

HR/FB

3.3

Hard%

27.8

FB%

40.0

Pull%

32.5

Soft%

8.6

GB%

34.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Oracle Park suppresses HRs (75)
Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (54% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .797 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (75)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.328↑ vs season .29068 PA · 15d

OPS

.797

ISO

.131

RBI

K-BB

4-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	4	1	0	0	.250
06-10	vs WSH	5	2	0	0	.600
06-09	vs WSH	5	2	0	0	.800
06-08	vs WSH	5	2	0	1	.400
06-07	@ CHC	4	1	0	0	.250
06-06	@ CHC	5	1	0	1	.200
06-05	@ CHC	5	2	1	0	.600
06-04	@ MIL	4	2	1	0	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR13PA	.076	.366	0.0	7.7	46	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR86PA	.088	.354	0.0	26.2	46	6.3
🐾SISinkervR26PA	—	.284	0.0	16.0	40	6.1
🐾CHChangeupvR29PA	.074	.268	3.7	22.2	67	7.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.076	.366	0.0	7.7	46	0.0	121	13

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.111	.194	0.0	8.7	52	15.9	125	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.088	.354	0.0	26.2	46	6.3	121	86

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.084	.266	0.0	25.0	53	0.0	125	41
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.284	0.0	16.0	40	6.1	121	26

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	1.000	.103	0.0	50.0	50	0.0	125	4
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.074	.268	3.7	22.2	67	7.0	121	29

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Arraez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 7 of 13 career HRs (54%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.114

Barrel %

0.4

Hard Hit %

22.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.303

xBA

.290

Brl / PA %

0.30

Max EV (mph)

101.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

98.2

Avg EV on HRs

96.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

345

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

42.5°

Brl / PA %

0.30

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.366
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
7.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
46
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.354
Whiff%
6.3
HH%
26.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
46
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.284
Whiff%
6.1
HH%
16.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.400AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

.900

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .337). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP201PA	.089	.420	.790	0.5%	1
vs LHP95PA	.163	.477	.814	—	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home128PA	.112	.457	.836	—	0
Away168PA	.113	.424	.769	0.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day115PA	.130	.450	.807	0.9%	1
🐾Night181PA	.102	.431	.792	—	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty131PA	.130	.488	.885	1
Runners On102PA	.060	.361	.698	0
RISP58PA	.023	.341	.692	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs90PA	.124	.420	.746	1
1 Out108PA	.074	.457	.864	0
2 Outs98PA	.142	.435	.772	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-031PA	.084	.417	.675	0
1-017PA	.133	.533	1.004	0
0-144PA	.143	.548	.957	2
2-07PA	—	.429	.857	0
0-235PA	.029	.229	.429	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-247PA	.087	.261	.431	0
2-231PA	.166	.533	.888	0
3-223PA	—	.211	.558	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.