Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

4.2%

+2287

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

6.3%

+1486

RBI 1+

30.1%

+232

Hits 1+

69.6%

-229

Hits 2+

28.0%

+257

FG · Blended (2-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.1%

95% CI · 2.9–3.3%

+3154

Fair odds

1st AB

0.6%

Through AB2

1.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Contact-18%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0099 · blended_2sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-18% (×0.82)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+1130

High

+2860

Low

+925

Med

+1252

Avg

+1726

🐾+1130

Low +925🐾 HR money zoneHigh +2860

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+24952026-06-30vs ARIbook line

AwayBat 1stoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.0

Proj PA

275

ISO

.056

wOBA

.302

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.0

Hard%

26.5

FB%

37.6

Pull%

33.1

Soft%

10.6

GB%

39.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

3.1

Hard%

17.9

FB%

32.3

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

11.3

GB%

46.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

3.0

Hard%

30.0

FB%

39.7

Pull%

32.8

Soft%

10.3

GB%

36.5

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.6

FB%

35.7

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

12.2

GB%

45.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

27.2

FB%

39.2

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

9.2

GB%

34.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (54% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .864 OPS over last 15 days
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.339↑ vs season .28763 PA · 15d

OPS

.864

ISO

.186

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	4	2	1	4	1	0	1.250
💣 380ft · 98.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	@ ATL	5	3	0	0	0	0	.800
06-14	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	vs CHC	5	1	0	1	0	0	.600
06-12	vs CHC	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-10	vs WSH	5	2	0	0	0	0	.600
06-09	vs WSH	5	2	0	0	0	0	.800
06-08	vs WSH	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup32PA	.173	.245	3.0	23.3	64	5.5
🐾SISinker71PA	.048	.271	0.0	20.3	46	4.2
🐾FCCutter18PA	.071	.489	0.0	30.8	23	3.7
🐾CUCurveball21PA	.250	.330	0.0	15.0	50	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	1.000	.103	0.0	50.0	50	0.0	117	4
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.069	.266	3.4	20.7	66	6.1	128	31

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.084	.266	0.0	25.0	53	0.0	117	41
vs RHP	—	.287	0.0	14.8	37	5.7	128	29

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.084	.489	0.0	36.4	27	4.0	128	14

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.076	.366	0.0	7.7	46	0.0	128	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Arraez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Projected0 of 13 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 7 of 13 career HRs (54%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.127

Barrel %

0.4

Hard Hit %

22.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.301

xBA

.287

Brl / PA %

0.30

Max EV (mph)

101.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

98.2

Avg EV on HRs

96.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

345

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

42.5°

Brl / PA %

0.30

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.245
Whiff%
5.5
HH%
23.3
BRL%
3.0
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 32 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.271
Whiff%
4.2
HH%
20.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
46
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 71 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.489
Whiff%
3.7
HH%
30.8
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
23
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Martín Pérez

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .337). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 39 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP217PA	.112	.449	.824	0.5%	2
vs LHP99PA	.158	.461	.787	—	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home138PA	.120	.448	.809	—	0
🐾Away178PA	.131	.456	.816	0.6%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day120PA	.125	.433	.778	0.9%	1
🐾Night196PA	.127	.464	.833	—	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty136PA	.125	.477	.867	1
Runners On111PA	.110	.429	.778	1
RISP62PA	.021	.354	.715	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs97PA	.128	.419	.745	1
1 Out115PA	.089	.485	.902	0
2 Outs104PA	.163	.449	.776	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.