Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.3%

+786

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Cantillo (LHP) (1.48 HR/9) · park 70

2+ RBI

10.2%

+880

RBI 1+

33.6%

+197

Hits 1+

64.5%

-182

Hits 2+

22.3%

+348

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.2%

95% CI · 6.9–7.5%

+1287

Fair odds

1st AB

1.9%

Through AB2

3.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-30%
Temp+5%
Contact-12%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast-2%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Cantillo (LHP)

·85F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0255 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park-30% (×0.70)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-2% (×0.98)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 6 games

Now

+785

High

+830

Low

+680

Med

+725

Avg

+748

+785

Low +680High +830

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.7

Proj PA

383

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.128

wOBA

.328

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

21.0

FB%

33.6

Pull%

16.8

Soft%

16.8

GB%

46.2

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

30.4

FB%

43.5

Pull%

26.1

Soft%

26.1

GB%

47.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

18.8

FB%

31.3

Pull%

14.6

Soft%

14.6

GB%

45.8

Home

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

18.2

FB%

34.5

Pull%

14.5

Soft%

16.4

GB%

50.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

25.4

FB%

34.3

Pull%

17.9

Soft%

16.4

GB%

41.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Progressive Field suppresses HRs (70)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (46% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .983 OPS over last 15 days
86°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (70)
High barrels/PA (4.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .25540 PA · 15d

OPS

.983

ISO

.250

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ CLE	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-11	vs MIN	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 368ft · 100.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	vs MIN	4	3	0	1	1	1	1.000
06-09	vs MIN	4	1	0	2	0	2	.250
06-07	vs SEA	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	vs SEA	4	0	0	0	0	4	—
06-05	vs SEA	4	3	0	2	0	0	1.000
06-03	@ TB	5	3	0	0	0	0	.800

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL16PA	.077	.407	27.3	63.6	55	13.3
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider17PA	—	.417	7.1	16.7	29	25.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.077	.407	27.3	63.6	55	13.3	84	16
vs RHP	.189	.349	8.3	45.8	17	27.6	140	46

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.444	7.7	23.1	31	25.0	140	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

124

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Torres.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 13 of 28 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.112

Barrel %

6.7

Hard Hit %

29.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.342

xBA

.255

Brl / PA %

4.40

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.1

Avg EV on HRs

99.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

376

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

4.40

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joey Cantillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
42
xwOBA
.407
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
63.6
BRL%
27.3
Pull%
55
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
29
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Joey Cantillo (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

1.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Joey Cantillo (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	41.8	12.6	45.8	48	.386	12.6
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.5	4.0	24.5	74	.274	23.8
CUCurveball	19.2	3.0	34.4	70	.249	22.4
SLSlider	9.0	10.5	36.8	58	.340	4.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball42% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	45.8	50	.393	8.8	34
vs RHB	14.3	44.4	48	.384	15.7	92

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.0	20.0	60	.274	25.0	17
vs RHB	2.2	24.4	76	.274	23.4	76

CUCurveball19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	37.5	88	.363	11.1	10
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	32.0	64	.224	26.8	47

SLSlider9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	23.1	54	.241	5.6	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	67	.538	0.0	7

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .448). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CLE)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Progressive Field (325/410/325 ft) · elev 660ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP141PA	.098	.418	.822	5.0%	3
🐾vs LHP43PA	.167	.267	.616	16.7%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home81PA	.125	.417	.787	7.3%	2
🐾Away103PA	.100	.363	.771	7.2%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day78PA	.157	.471	.830	5.0%	3
Night106PA	.073	.317	.732	9.4%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty71PA	.053	.228	.566	1
Runners On78PA	.107	.492	.954	1
RISP45PA	.054	.324	.680	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs50PA	.163	.372	.692	2
1 Out78PA	.148	.443	.866	2
2 Outs56PA	.020	.333	.744	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-015PA	.143	.500	.900	0
1-012PA	.084	.417	.750	0
0-19PA	.333	1.000	1.667	1
2-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-213PA	—	.167	.321	0
3-06PA	.750	1.000	1.500	1
1-222PA	—	.227	.455	0
2-234PA	.059	.353	.647	0
3-238PA	—	.278	.936	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.