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Willi CastroSHB
COL
🐾 Tonight8:05 PM MT · Las Vegas Ballpark
Home Run
11.4%
+780
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Joey Estes (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114
2+ RBI
10.3%
+876
RBI 1+
33.7%
+197
Hits 1+
59.2%
-145
Hits 2+
17.3%
+477
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
83wRC+
🐾As RHB(vs LHP)
100wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
11.1%
95% CI · 10.7–11.4%
+802
Fair odds
1st AB
3.2%
Through AB2
6.3%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park+14%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP+40%
  • Contact-8%
  • Statcast-10%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Estes (RHP)
  • ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
  • ·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
  • ·87F game
  • ·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0226 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+40% (×1.40) · blended_proj
Park+14% (×1.14)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-10% (×0.90)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 16 games · 1 HR
Now
+780
High
+1075
Low
+480
Med
+720
Avg
+753
🐾+780
Low +480🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1075
WARMspot score 100

Just below his HR money zone (+675 to +675). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
8.0
Proj PA
322
HR / PA
.025
ISO
.151
wOBA
.334
wRC+
98
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
5.4
Hard%
34.8
FB%
40.3
Pull%
44.7
Soft%
14.9
GB%
39.6
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
21.7
FB%
40.0
Pull%
47.8
Soft%
21.7
GB%
44.4
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
7.9
Hard%
41.1
FB%
40.4
Pull%
43.2
Soft%
11.6
GB%
37.2
Home
HR/FB
3.4
Hard%
43.2
FB%
35.8
Pull%
46.9
Soft%
19.8
GB%
38.3
🐾Away
HR/FB
7.4
Hard%
23.3
FB%
46.6
Pull%
41.7
Soft%
8.3
GB%
41.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
  • Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (45% of career HRs)
  • Hot streak: .822 OPS over last 15 days
  • 87°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park boost (114)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.306↑ vs season .22556 PA · 15d
OPS
.822
ISO
.123
HR
1
RBI
4
K-BB
7-5
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12@ ATH410000.250
06-11vs CHC520000.400
06-10vs CHC400000—
06-09vs CHC530000.800
06-07vs MIL420001.500
06-05vs MIL310010.667
06-03@ LAA300011—
06-02@ LAA511302.800
💣 433ft · 109.2 EV · 4-Seamer
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
FCvR13PA.250.52320.060.06016.0
SIvR18PA.200.3537.753.85410.0
FFvR60PA.196.3768.358.36424.0
SLvR16PA.214.27612.550.06343.5
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FCCutter
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT.250.52320.060.06016.08313
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.200.3210.050.05041.21006
vs RHPTONIGHT.200.3537.753.85410.08318
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.045.1590.07.74630.510023
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.196.3768.358.36424.08360
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP—.2190.028.68615.81009
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.214.27612.550.06343.58316
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
95
vs RHB
114
🐾vs SHB
104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Castro.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 5 of 11 career HRs (45%).
5
1
🐾
1
2
·
2
3
·
4
·
2
5
·
6
·
7
·
1
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.102
Barrel %
5.0
Hard Hit %
43.3
xwOBA
.289
xBA
.225
Brl / PA %
3.20
Max EV (mph)
112.1
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
111.2
Avg EV on HRs
106.4
Avg HR Distance (ft)
413
HRs in sample
3
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/3
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/3
Avg LA on HRs
31.0°
Brl / PA %
3.20

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
.16.30.32.37🐾.30.23.28.35.29
🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .369). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
CFLFRF325ft403ft325ftSISLFF
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
3 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 0
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SISinker1
SLSlider1
FF4-Seam Fastball1
Bats S · Switch hitter
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP156PA.117.358.6856.9%3
vs LHP67PA.063.391.7494.1%0
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home113PA.097.437.8263.4%1
🐾Away110PA.102.296.5789.8%2
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Day74PA.045.303.6271.9%0
🐾Night149PA.126.400.7428.3%3
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty76PA.072.343.6721
Runners On96PA.148.395.7492
RISP53PA.163.419.7961
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs71PA.060.373.7110
1 Out78PA.103.382.7541
2 Outs74PA.136.348.6452
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-028PA.040.440.9040
1-06PA.166.333.5000
0-121PA.238.6671.0951
2-08PA.250.7501.2500
0-229PA.069.172.2760
3-04PA——1.0000
1-241PA.024.244.4630
2-232PA.031.250.4690
3-232PA.261.435.8412

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.