Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.1%

+522

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

12.8%

+678

RBI 1+

36.0%

+177

Hits 1+

70.9%

-244

Hits 2+

29.6%

+238

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.1%

95% CI · 12.7–13.4%

+666

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

5.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-34%
Contact-14%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0352 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-14% (×0.86)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 1 HR

Now

+520

High

+960

Low

+390

Med

+658

Avg

+655

🐾+520

Low +390🐾 HR money zoneHigh +960

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.3

Proj PA

383

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.185

wOBA

.366

wRC+

132

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.4

Hard%

38.9

FB%

33.2

Pull%

22.6

Soft%

17.3

GB%

49.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

15.4

Hard%

41.1

FB%

46.4

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

14.3

GB%

42.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

38.2

FB%

28.3

Pull%

20.4

Soft%

18.4

GB%

51.3

Home

HR/FB

27.8

Hard%

37.6

FB%

35.6

Pull%

32.7

Soft%

10.9

GB%

49.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.1

Hard%

40.2

FB%

30.8

Pull%

13.1

Soft%

23.4

GB%

48.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (69% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.110 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (127)
High barrels/PA (6.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.396↑ vs season .29660 PA · 15d

OPS

1.110

ISO

.264

RBI

K-BB

7-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ LAA	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-10	vs BOS	5	3	0	2	0	0	.600
06-09	vs BOS	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-08	vs BOS	3	1	1	2	1	0	1.333
💣 390ft · 100.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	@ MIA	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-06	@ MIA	5	3	0	2	0	0	.800
06-05	@ MIA	5	3	0	0	0	0	.600
06-03	vs DET	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR47PA	.136	.428	8.3	44.4	22	4.1
🐾CUCurveballvR7PA	—	.375	0.0	42.9	43	6.2
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR48PA	.137	.325	9.7	51.6	13	15.3
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.052	.367	0.0	73.3	27	9.5	164	21
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.136	.428	8.3	44.4	22	4.1	159	47

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.375	0.0	42.9	43	6.2	159	7

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.334	.317	5.0	50.0	40	12.7	164	23
vs RHPTONIGHT	.137	.325	9.7	51.6	13	15.3	159	48

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Díaz.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 29 of 42 career HRs (69%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.205

Barrel %

8.7

Hard Hit %

46.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.374

xBA

.296

Brl / PA %

6.60

Max EV (mph)

113.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.3

Avg EV on HRs

103.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

383

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/8

Avg LA on HRs

29.1°

Brl / PA %

6.60

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.428
Whiff%
4.1
HH%
44.4
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
22
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.375
Whiff%
6.2
HH%
42.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
43
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.325
Whiff%
15.3
HH%
51.6
BRL%
9.7
Pull%
13

Career vs José Soriano (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .448). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup2

SLSlider2

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP197PA	.195	.523	.929	10.8%	8
vs LHP80PA	.218	.551	.951	4.9%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home126PA	.310	.655	1.076	11.7%	10
🐾Away151PA	.113	.429	.820	6.9%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day122PA	.145	.523	.957	7.6%	4
🐾Night155PA	.250	.538	.919	11.0%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty72PA	.093	.385	.746	1
Runners On122PA	.211	.596	1.055	5
RISP68PA	.093	.519	1.034	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs114PA	.280	.560	.928	8
1 Out82PA	.141	.606	1.118	1
2 Outs81PA	.153	.417	.763	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-045PA	.222	.689	1.156	3
1-021PA	.381	.667	.952	2
0-137PA	.156	.625	1.166	1
2-06PA	.500	.833	1.167	1
0-224PA	.087	.304	.554	0
3-08PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-242PA	.325	.700	1.081	3
2-230PA	.033	.100	.167	0
3-232PA	.100	.350	.881	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.