Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.8%

+1174

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #9Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.3%

+1102

RBI 1+

31.9%

+213

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.6%

95% CI · 5.3–5.8%

+1694

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Contact-15%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0245 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+790

High

+8030

Low

+565

Med

+750

Avg

+1198

+790

Low +565High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.7

Proj PA

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.173

wOBA

.314

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

37.5

FB%

46.2

Pull%

40.8

Soft%

14.2

GB%

32.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

17.4

Hard%

41.2

FB%

45.1

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

11.8

GB%

33.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

3.2

Hard%

34.8

FB%

47.0

Pull%

46.4

Soft%

15.9

GB%

31.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

32.4

FB%

38.9

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

16.2

GB%

30.6

Away

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

39.8

FB%

49.4

Pull%

43.4

Soft%

13.3

GB%

33.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250→ vs season .25017 PA · 15d

OPS

.794

ISO

.250

RBI

K-BB

7-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs TOR	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-14	vs TEX	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs TEX	0	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	@ TB	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-08	@ TB	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ NYY	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-05	@ NYY	3	1	1	1	0	0	1.333
💣 408ft · 104.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-04	vs BAL	2	1	0	0	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball37PA	.242	.290	9.1	42.9	50	22.4
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider27PA	.040	.234	0.0	21.1	57	7.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.400	.313	10.0	30.0	50	16.7	113	17
vs RHP	.105	.271	8.3	50.0	50	18.8	57	21

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.225	0.0	28.6	71	12.5	113	12
vs RHP	.050	.240	0.0	12.5	50	7.4	57	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Monasterio.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.6

Avg EV on HRs

103.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.290
Whiff%
22.4
HH%
42.9
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
50
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.234
Whiff%
7.0
HH%
21.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
57
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .472). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CHChangeup1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 17 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP64PA	.081	.323	.589	3.7%	0
vs LHP51PA	.239	.478	.792	8.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home48PA	.098	.293	.606	—	0
Away67PA	.179	.448	.717	8.6%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day60PA	.182	.455	.788	5.5%	1
Night55PA	.113	.321	.557	5.6%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty42PA	.250	.550	.883	1
Runners On52PA	.082	.286	.536	1
RISP36PA	.090	.242	.464	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs34PA	.156	.375	.640	1
1 Out44PA	.214	.524	.865	1
2 Outs37PA	.059	.235	.478	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.