Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.7%

+1047

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.8%

+1037

RBI 1+

32.4%

+209

Hits 1+

58.1%

-139

Hits 2+

16.4%

+511

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.3%

95% CI · 11.9–12.6%

+716

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-2%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0349 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+815

High

+6990

Low

+460

Med

+630

Avg

+1192

🐾+815

Low +460🐾 HR money zoneHigh +6990

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7502026-06-14vs CHCbook line

HomeBat 1stoff RHPSinker

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.2

Proj PA

193

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.186

wOBA

.329

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

30.6

FB%

39.7

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

23.1

GB%

46.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.9

Hard%

33.3

FB%

48.3

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

18.3

GB%

35.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

29.6

FB%

36.7

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

24.9

GB%

50.3

Home

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

33.3

FB%

35.4

Pull%

38.4

Soft%

19.2

GB%

50.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

28.5

FB%

43.1

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

26.2

GB%

43.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (77% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.172 OPS over last 15 days
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (4.5%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.356↑ vs season .21957 PA · 15d

OPS

1.172

ISO

.377

RBI

K-BB

8-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-16	@ ATL	4	0	0	2	0	0	—
06-14	vs CHC	3	1	1	2	2	0	1.333
💣 405ft · 106.8 EV · Sinker
06-13	vs CHC	4	1	0	0	0	3	.250
06-12	vs CHC	2	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	vs WSH	5	4	2	3	0	0	2.200
💣 409ft · 101.4 EV · Cutter💣 421ft · 107.0 EV · Curveball
06-09	vs WSH	3	1	0	0	2	0	.333
06-08	vs WSH	3	2	0	1	0	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup27PA	.174	.368	11.8	47.1	71	23.9
🐾SISinker84PA	.148	.285	4.4	32.3	56	16.5
🐾FCCutter21PA	.158	.272	9.5	42.1	48	13.0
🐾CUCurveball18PA	.500	.361	16.7	50.0	83	22.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.272	.462	20.0	60.0	60	5.0	143	12
vs RHP	.083	.289	0.0	28.6	86	34.6	97	15

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.235	.305	14.3	35.7	43	17.9	143	20
vs RHP	.148	.279	1.9	33.3	59	12.1	97	67

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.166	.296	11.1	50.0	50	11.1	97	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.428	.357	16.7	33.3	100	11.1	143	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.857	.569	16.7	50.0	67	18.8	97	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

100

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Chapman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected1 of 26 HRs · 4%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 20 of 26 career HRs (77%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.148

Barrel %

6.7

Hard Hit %

36.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.294

xBA

.219

Brl / PA %

4.50

Max EV (mph)

113.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Avg EV on HRs

105.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

357

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

34.5°

Brl / PA %

4.50

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.368
Whiff%
23.9
HH%
47.1
BRL%
11.8
Pull%
71
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
16.5
HH%
32.3
BRL%
4.4
Pull%
56
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.272
Whiff%
13.0
HH%
42.1
BRL%
9.5
Pull%
48
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.

Career vs Martín Pérez

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .397). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 12 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP229PA	.137	.382	.696	6.1%	5
vs LHP80PA	.182	.455	.855	11.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home136PA	.178	.464	.876	10.3%	3
🐾Away173PA	.126	.354	.631	5.1%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day122PA	.260	.577	.979	11.8%	5
🐾Night187PA	.078	.289	.583	4.1%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty89PA	.063	.266	.558	1
Runners On153PA	.203	.526	.918	4
RISP84PA	.310	.718	1.182	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs115PA	.137	.392	.731	2
1 Out104PA	.188	.444	.771	5
2 Outs90PA	.115	.359	.703	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.