Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.6%

+1067

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

8.7%

+1048

RBI 1+

32.3%

+210

Hits 1+

58.7%

-142

Hits 2+

16.9%

+493

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.3%

95% CI · 8.9–9.6%

+980

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-25%
Contact-11%
SP Contact-13%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0354 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+1065

High

+1275

Low

+425

Med

+685

Avg

+755

🐾+1065

Low +425🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1275

WARMspot score 77

Just below his HR money zone (+695 to +695). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.1

Proj PA

372

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.183

wOBA

.336

wRC+

116

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

29.7

FB%

38.5

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

25.1

GB%

47.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

31.3

FB%

50.0

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

22.9

GB%

35.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.8

Hard%

29.3

FB%

34.7

Pull%

42.2

Soft%

25.9

GB%

51.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

28.9

FB%

33.7

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

22.9

GB%

51.8

Away

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

30.4

FB%

42.0

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

26.8

GB%

43.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (77% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.243 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.5%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.388↑ vs season .22260 PA · 15d

OPS

1.243

ISO

.388

RBI

K-BB

6-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	2	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	vs WSH	5	4	2	3	0	0	2.200
💣 409ft · 101.4 EV · Cutter💣 421ft · 107.0 EV · Curveball
06-09	vs WSH	3	1	0	0	2	0	.333
06-08	vs WSH	3	2	0	1	0	0	.667
06-07	@ CHC	3	2	0	1	1	0	.667
06-06	@ CHC	1	0	0	1	1	1	—
06-05	@ CHC	3	2	2	8	0	1	2.667
💣 432ft · 109.6 EV · Sweeper💣 382ft · 96.9 EV · Curveball
06-04	@ MIL	5	3	0	2	0	0	.800

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR6PA	1.000	.682	16.7	50.0	67	13.3
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR52PA	.070	.298	6.5	41.9	48	20.7
🐾SISinkervR62PA	.105	.261	0.0	33.3	61	12.4
🐾CHChangeupvR12PA	.111	.344	0.0	16.7	83	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.428	.357	16.7	33.3	100	11.1	150	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	1.000	.682	16.7	50.0	67	13.3	101	6

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.059	.303	0.0	33.3	33	25.7	150	24
vs RHPTONIGHT	.070	.298	6.5	41.9	48	20.7	101	52

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.235	.305	14.3	35.7	43	17.9	150	20
vs RHPTONIGHT	.105	.261	0.0	33.3	61	12.4	101	62

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.272	.462	20.0	60.0	60	5.0	150	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.111	.344	0.0	16.7	83	33.3	101	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Chapman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 20 of 26 career HRs (77%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.147

Barrel %

6.7

Hard Hit %

36.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.296

xBA

.222

Brl / PA %

4.50

Max EV (mph)

113.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.7

Avg EV on HRs

105.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

357

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

34.5°

Brl / PA %

4.50

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.682
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
50.0
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.298
Whiff%
20.7
HH%
41.9
BRL%
6.5
Pull%
48
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.261
Whiff%
12.4
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 62 PA this season.

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

.400

RBI

K-BB

3-1

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .397). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP212PA	.131	.384	.705	5.8%	4
vs LHP78PA	.188	.469	.879	11.8%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home127PA	.162	.448	.857	9.9%	2
Away163PA	.134	.376	.670	5.2%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day117PA	.237	.554	.947	11.1%	4
🐾Night173PA	.085	.307	.619	4.3%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty84PA	.068	.284	.594	1
Runners On143PA	.192	.520	.919	3
RISP78PA	.283	.701	1.175	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs110PA	.143	.408	.753	2
1 Out95PA	.171	.427	.764	4
2 Outs85PA	.121	.378	.731	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-038PA	.172	.429	.744	1
1-012PA	.417	.917	1.417	1
0-133PA	.242	.727	1.212	1
2-05PA	1.000	1.500	2.100	1
0-222PA	.363	.818	1.273	1
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-241PA	.073	.244	.415	0
2-242PA	—	.122	.241	0
3-250PA	—	.088	.468	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.