Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+655

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.3%

+786

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.4%

95% CI · 9.1–9.7%

+965

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact-12%
SP Contact+2%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (season) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0264 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 3 games

Now

+770

High

+1245

Low

+445

Med

+1080

Avg

+923

+770

Low +445High +1245

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

25.0

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

50.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

33.3

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

33.3

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

66.7

FB%

50.0

Pull%

0.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

50.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

0.0

FB%

0.0

Pull%

100.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .25016 PA · 15d

OPS

.958

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

5-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ MIL	2	0	0	1	2	—
06-13	vs DET	2	2	0	0	0	1.000
06-10	vs NYY	2	0	0	2	1	—
06-08	vs NYY	1	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	@ TEX	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ TEX	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-04	@ NYY	2	1	1	1	1	.500
05-31	vs BOS	3	0	0	0	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball10PA	—	.392	20.0	100.0	60	53.8
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.441	0.0	100.0	0	53.3	—	11
vs RHP	.500	.214	33.3	100.0	100	22.2	—	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Fairchild.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Confirmed0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.5

Avg EV on HRs

101.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

405

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.392
Whiff%
53.8
HH%
100.0
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
60
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .431). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP5PA	—	.250	.650	16.7%	0
vs LHP16PA	—	.200	.700	12.5%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home14PA	—	.200	.629	20.0%	0
🐾Away7PA	—	.250	.821	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day15PA	—	.273	.740	18.2%	0
Night6PA	—	—	.500	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty8PA	—	.250	.875
Runners On10PA	—	.250	.650
RISP6PA	—	.200	.533

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs7PA	—	.200	.629
1 Out7PA	—	—	.429
2 Outs7PA	—	.400	.971

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.