Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.2%

+560

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.3%

+711

RBI 1+

35.6%

+181

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.7%

95% CI · 12.3–13.1%

+686

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

6.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact+12%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0300 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 6 games

Now

+575

High

+860

Low

+690

Med

+760

Avg

+763

+575

Low +690High +860

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.0

Proj PA

148

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.136

wOBA

.268

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.9

Hard%

28.9

FB%

40.5

Pull%

45.6

Soft%

16.7

GB%

32.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

57.1

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

14.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.3

Hard%

29.2

FB%

39.4

Pull%

45.3

Soft%

17.9

GB%

33.7

Home

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

27.0

FB%

32.8

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

17.5

GB%

29.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

31.4

FB%

50.0

Pull%

54.9

Soft%

15.7

GB%

36.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.231↓ vs season .25028 PA · 15d

OPS

.519

ISO

.038

RBI

K-BB

8-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	5	0	0	0	2	—
06-14	vs STL	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs STL	1	0	0	1	0	—
06-12	vs STL	4	2	1	0	0	.500
06-11	@ DET	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ DET	4	0	0	0	3	—
06-07	vs KC	1	1	0	0	0	1.000
06-06	vs KC	1	0	1	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball40PA	.059	.360	3.3	50.0	40	22.0
🐾SLSlider27PA	.042	.241	7.1	46.2	79	47.3
🐾CHChangeup21PA	.047	.235	0.0	20.0	81	43.9
🐾FCCutter10PA	.667	.515	25.0	44.4	58	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.241	0.0	25.0	25	14.3	—	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.060	.378	3.8	53.8	42	14.6	85	39

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.103	0.0	0.0	100	90.0	—	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.045	.272	7.7	53.8	77	36.5	85	25

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.045	.235	0.0	18.8	81	40.5	85	22

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.461	.515	27.3	63.6	55	23.1	85	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Gray.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.4

Avg EV on HRs

103.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

26.7°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.360
Whiff%
22.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
3.3
Pull%
40
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.241
Whiff%
47.3
HH%
46.2
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
79
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.235
Whiff%
43.9
HH%
20.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
81
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .757). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP120PA	.119	.376	.676	6.5%	3
vs LHP20PA	.166	.333	.544	11.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home75PA	.106	.394	.727	5.6%	2
🐾Away65PA	.147	.344	.578	8.5%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day62PA	.163	.436	.759	6.0%	2
Night78PA	.097	.319	.579	7.8%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty38PA	.111	.278	.489	1
Runners On74PA	.190	.460	.789	3
RISP47PA	.290	.579	.941	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs51PA	—	.255	.535	0
1 Out54PA	.270	.583	.935	3
2 Outs35PA	.094	.219	.419	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.