Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.8%

+684

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #8Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.0%

+808

RBI 1+

34.4%

+191

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.9%

95% CI · 11.5–12.2%

+743

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

6.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact+5%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·88F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0290 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+625

High

+1080

Low

+390

Med

+678

Avg

+730

+625

Low +390High +1080

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.8

Proj PA

HR / PA

.033

ISO

.159

wOBA

.299

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

28.0

Hard%

31.3

FB%

34.2

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

12.0

GB%

38.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

31.3

Hard%

33.3

FB%

36.4

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

7.8

GB%

34.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

28.1

FB%

31.0

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

18.8

GB%

44.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

27.8

FB%

30.0

Pull%

47.2

Soft%

8.3

GB%

50.0

Away

HR/FB

37.5

Hard%

34.0

FB%

37.2

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

14.9

GB%

30.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .25013 PA · 15d

OPS

.648

ISO

.250

RBI

K-BB

6-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	0	0	0	0	—
06-16	vs MIA	1	0	0	0	—
06-15	vs MIA	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	@ MIL	3	1	0	2	.333
06-13	@ MIL	5	1	0	3	.200
06-10	vs ATL	4	1	1	2	.250
06-09	vs ATL	1	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ PHI	2	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball29PA	.270	.299	18.8	46.7	44	35.4
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker15PA	—	.252	0.0	12.5	60	25.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.389	.339	16.7	50.0	42	30.0	100	19
vs RHP	—	.234	25.0	25.0	50	43.3	34	16

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.144	0.0	25.0	75	24.0	100	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.380	0.0	16.7	50	17.6	34	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hill.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Projected0 of 2 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 1 of 2 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.9

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

414

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.299
Whiff%
35.4
HH%
46.7
BRL%
18.8
Pull%
44
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.252
Whiff%
25.6
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .474). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP33PA	—	.172	.445	4.5%	0
vs LHP66PA	.217	.450	.731	9.3%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home48PA	.072	.286	.569	6.2%	1
Away51PA	.213	.426	.701	9.1%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day52PA	.146	.375	.650	10.7%	2
Night47PA	.146	.341	.624	5.4%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty32PA	.214	.464	.808	2
Runners On47PA	.093	.326	.593	1
RISP23PA	—	.238	.511	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs33PA	.207	.483	.827	2
1 Out36PA	.129	.290	.547	1
2 Outs30PA	.103	.310	.543	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.