Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

11.9%

+738

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Gusto (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

10.6%

+846

RBI 1+

34.0%

+194

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.9%

95% CI · 11.5–12.3%

+742

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Contact+4%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast+3%

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0290 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games · 1 HR

Now

+850

High

+910

Low

+580

Med

+732

Avg

+736

🐾+850

Low +580🐾 HR money zoneHigh +910

WARMspot score 93

Just below his HR money zone (+675 to +675). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+6752026-06-05vs PHIbook line

AwayBat 6thoff LHPChangeup

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.3

Proj PA

110

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.151

wOBA

.299

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

30.9

FB%

34.8

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

9.1

GB%

41.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

36.8

FB%

37.5

Pull%

39.5

Soft%

7.9

GB%

34.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.6

FB%

28.6

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

57.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

27.6

FB%

33.3

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

6.9

GB%

45.8

Away

HR/FB

37.5

Hard%

34.6

FB%

36.4

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

11.5

GB%

36.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.125↓ vs season .25017 PA · 15d

OPS

.489

ISO

.188

RBI

K-BB

8-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ MIL	5	1	0	0	0	3	.200
06-10	vs ATL	4	1	0	1	0	2	.250
06-09	vs ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ PHI	2	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ PHI	2	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	@ PHI	3	1	1	1	0	0	1.333
💣 383ft · 101.7 EV · Changeup
06-03	@ MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-02	@ MIN	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR16PA	—	.235	25.0	25.0	50	43.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.412	.358	16.7	50.0	42	22.2	106	18
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.235	25.0	25.0	50	43.3	34	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hill.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 1 of 2 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.9

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

414

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Gusto · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seamervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.235
Whiff%
43.3
HH%
25.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.

Ryan Gusto (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seamer	31.1	20.0	60.0	0	.410	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seamer31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	50.0	0	.453	14.3	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .474). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 22 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP33PA	—	.172	.445	4.5%	0
vs LHP62PA	.232	.464	.747	9.8%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home47PA	.073	.293	.582	6.5%	1
Away48PA	.227	.432	.703	9.4%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day49PA	.156	.378	.649	11.1%	2
Night46PA	.150	.350	.639	5.6%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty30PA	.231	.462	.795	2
Runners On46PA	.095	.333	.606	1
RISP23PA	—	.238	.511	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs31PA	.223	.519	.886	2
1 Out35PA	.134	.267	.502	1
2 Outs29PA	.107	.321	.562	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Mon.