Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.0%

+669

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (0.64 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.2%

+797

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

49.2%

+103

Hits 2+

9.9%

+911

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.5%

95% CI · 19.1–20.0%

+413

Fair odds

1st AB

5.1%

Through AB2

10.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact+14%
SP Contact+2%
Statcast+15%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0391 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+15% (×1.15)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+775

High

+1215

Low

+370

Med

+690

Avg

+682

+775

Low +370High +1215

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.5

Proj PA

174

HR / PA

.049

ISO

.215

wOBA

.333

wRC+

114

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.7

Hard%

31.9

FB%

52.6

Pull%

56.3

Soft%

22.2

GB%

26.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

39.6

FB%

62.5

Pull%

56.3

Soft%

18.8

GB%

20.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.2

Hard%

27.6

FB%

47.1

Pull%

56.3

Soft%

24.1

GB%

29.9

Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

34.0

FB%

49.1

Pull%

58.5

Soft%

13.2

GB%

20.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

30.5

FB%

54.9

Pull%

54.9

Soft%

28.0

GB%

30.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.64 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (27% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (5.9%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.64 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.143↓ vs season .17540 PA · 15d

OPS

.536

ISO

.143

RBI

K-BB

14-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ MIL	4	0	0	3	—
06-16	@ MIL	4	1	0	2	.500
06-13	vs DET	4	0	0	2	—
06-12	vs DET	4	1	0	0	.500
06-10	vs NYY	4	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs NYY	4	1	0	2	.250
06-08	vs NYY	3	0	0	2	—
06-05	@ TEX	3	0	1	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball63PA	.157	.299	8.1	40.0	65	25.8
🐾SISinker43PA	.176	.353	15.6	48.1	56	26.1
🐾SLSlider27PA	.200	.318	16.7	27.3	83	34.1
🐾FCCutter17PA	.267	.232	0.0	18.2	69	31.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.474	.306	23.1	53.8	62	25.0	69	23
vs RHP	.059	.297	0.0	37.5	67	22.2	112	44

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.091	.335	9.1	36.4	55	20.8	69	13
vs RHP	.179	.361	19.0	61.9	57	23.5	112	36

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.382	0.0	0.0	100	37.5	69	8
vs RHP	.263	.291	18.2	27.3	82	26.7	112	22

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.166	.240	0.0	33.3	67	25.0	69	6
vs RHP	.333	.229	0.0	20.0	70	22.2	112	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hoskins.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed3 of 11 HRs · 27%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 3 of 11 career HRs (27%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.182

Barrel %

11.1

Hard Hit %

41.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.295

xBA

.175

Brl / PA %

5.90

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

382

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.7°

Brl / PA %

5.90

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
28
xwOBA
.299
Whiff%
25.8
HH%
40.0
BRL%
8.1
Pull%
65
SISinker
Use%
22
xwOBA
.353
Whiff%
26.1
HH%
48.1
BRL%
15.6
Pull%
56
SLSlider
Use%
20
xwOBA
.318
Whiff%
34.1
HH%
27.3
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
83

Shane Drohan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.8	12.0	50.0	44	.252	22.7
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.6	13.9	47.2	58	.344	25.0
SLSlider	19.6	3.0	25.8	70	.218	24.6
FCCutter	14.3	10.3	28.0	66	.352	8.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.4	38.5	54	.344	19.2	21
vs RHB	8.3	50.0	33	.183	23.5	28

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	42.9	79	.302	14.3	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.0	46	.370	33.3	25

SLSlider20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.5	27.3	64	.213	31.4	33
vs RHB	0.0	27.3	82	.230	12.5	16

FCCutter14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	16.7	83	.349	0.0	7
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .362). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CH🐾Changeup2

SISinker1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP129PA	.179	.387	.736	11.2%	3
vs LHP76PA	.186	.322	.598	12.5%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home94PA	.151	.315	.645	9.3%	2
🐾Away111PA	.206	.402	.717	13.6%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day63PA	.120	.260	.562	10.5%	0
Night142PA	.209	.409	.740	12.2%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty61PA	.157	.333	.644	1
Runners On89PA	.176	.397	.757	2
RISP51PA	.222	.472	.864	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs73PA	.169	.271	.531	3
1 Out76PA	.183	.383	.712	2
2 Outs56PA	.196	.457	.850	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.