Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.5%

+1235

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Tarik Skubal (LHP) (0.42 HR/9) · park 70

2+ RBI

8.1%

+1132

RBI 1+

31.8%

+215

Hits 1+

50.5%

-102

Hits 2+

10.7%

+834

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.1%

95% CI · 9.8–10.4%

+891

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-30%
Temp+5%
vs SP-35%
Contact+9%
SP Contact-14%
Statcast+19%
SP Statcast-6%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Tarik Skubal (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·85F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0390 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.65) · blended_proj

Park-30% (×0.70)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-14% (×0.86)

SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+1235

High

+1075

Low

+460

Med

+745

Avg

+737

🐾+1235

Low +460🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1075

WARMspot score 73

Just below his HR money zone (+765 to +765). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.4

Proj PA

238

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.199

wOBA

.331

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

35.4

FB%

50.5

Pull%

57.6

Soft%

19.2

GB%

28.3

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

43.2

FB%

62.2

Pull%

54.1

Soft%

13.5

GB%

21.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

30.6

FB%

43.5

Pull%

59.7

Soft%

22.6

GB%

32.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

35.6

FB%

51.1

Pull%

60.0

Soft%

11.1

GB%

17.8

Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

32.8

FB%

48.3

Pull%

56.9

Soft%

24.1

GB%

37.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Progressive Field suppresses HRs (70)
Tarik Skubal stingy: only 0.42 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (27% of career HRs)
86°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (70)
Elite barrel% (12.1)
High barrels/PA (6.3%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.42 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.194↑ vs season .18138 PA · 15d

OPS

.697

ISO

.161

RBI

K-BB

9-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs DET	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-10	vs NYY	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs NYY	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-08	vs NYY	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	@ TEX	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-04	@ NYY	2	0	0	0	2	0	—
06-03	@ NYY	3	2	1	3	1	0	1.667
💣 382ft · 105.1 EV · Slider
05-31	vs BOS	4	1	0	0	1	2	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL22PA	.500	.321	23.1	53.8	62	24.5
🐾CHChangeupvL20PA	.200	.307	9.1	63.6	82	35.7
🐾SISinkervL12PA	.100	.362	10.0	40.0	60	21.7
🐾SLSlidervL8PA	—	.382	0.0	—	100	40.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.500	.321	23.1	53.8	62	24.5	80	22
vs RHP	.034	.301	0.0	40.0	65	22.7	122	40

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.200	.307	9.1	63.6	82	35.7	80	20
vs RHP	no sample

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.100	.362	10.0	40.0	60	21.7	80	12
vs RHP	.193	.386	19.0	61.9	57	19.6	122	34

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.382	0.0	0.0	100	40.0	80	8
vs RHP	.263	.291	18.2	27.3	82	26.7	122	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

124

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hoskins.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 3 of 11 career HRs (27%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.189

Barrel %

12.1

Hard Hit %

44.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.308

xBA

.181

Brl / PA %

6.30

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.7

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

382

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.7°

Brl / PA %

6.30

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Tarik Skubal · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.321
Whiff%
24.5
HH%
53.8
BRL%
23.1
Pull%
62
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.307
Whiff%
35.7
HH%
63.6
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
82
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.362
Whiff%
21.7
HH%
40.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
60

Career vs Tarik Skubal (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Tarik Skubal (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	39.0	10.4	36.4	46	.331	20.6
CHChangeup	25.7	3.2	25.0	71	.194	26.8
SISinker	18.7	0.0	56.0	43	.382	18.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.7	0.0	76.9	81	.217	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	33.3	66.7	33	.318	43.8	10
vs RHB	8.9	33.3	47	.333	15.9	57

CHChangeup26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	50.0	83	.154	22.2	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.0	28.0	68	.201	24.6	43

SISinker19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	62.5	38	.408	12.5	18
vs RHB	0.0	41.7	50	.361	17.4	19

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	100	.439	—	4
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	75.0	75	.175	28.0	19

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .362). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CLE)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Progressive Field (325/410/325 ft) · elev 660ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CH🐾Changeup2

SISinker1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP121PA	.184	.398	.762	12.5%	3
🐾vs LHP72PA	.200	.345	.637	12.8%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home90PA	.159	.333	.677	10.4%	2
Away103PA	.215	.417	.747	14.3%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day59PA	.131	.283	.605	11.1%	0
Night134PA	.215	.421	.764	13.3%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty58PA	.166	.354	.682	1
Runners On84PA	.175	.397	.766	2
RISP48PA	.242	.515	.932	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs67PA	.189	.302	.586	3
1 Out74PA	.190	.397	.735	2
2 Outs52PA	.190	.452	.856	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-019PA	.166	.333	.544	1
1-013PA	.616	1.154	1.692	2
0-17PA	.143	.286	.429	0
2-02PA	—	—	—	0
0-212PA	.084	.167	.250	0
3-011PA	—	—	.909	0
1-230PA	.069	.276	.509	0
2-231PA	.100	.200	.297	1
3-241PA	.318	.500	1.037	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.