Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.1%

+564

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

12.3%

+714

RBI 1+

35.5%

+181

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.4%

95% CI · 10.1–10.8%

+858

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
vs SP-2%
Contact-15%
SP Contact-3%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0363 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+565

High

+1130

Low

+560

Med

+680

Avg

+722

+565

Low +560High +1130

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.9

Proj PA

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.159

wOBA

.276

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

23.5

FB%

37.5

Pull%

23.5

Soft%

11.8

GB%

50.0

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

50.0

FB%

50.0

Pull%

25.0

Soft%

25.0

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

15.4

FB%

33.3

Pull%

23.1

Soft%

7.7

GB%

50.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

57.1

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

12.5

GB%

28.6

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.2

FB%

22.2

Pull%

11.1

Soft%

11.1

GB%

66.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.353↑ vs season .25018 PA · 15d

OPS

.742

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

4-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-11	@ DET	1	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ DET	3	2	0	0	.667
06-07	vs KC	3	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs KC	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs KC	3	1	0	0	.333
06-02	vs CHW	4	2	1	1	.500
05-31	@ PIT	3	1	0	2	.333
05-27	@ CHW	3	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball10PA	.100	.081	0.0	25.0	40	39.1
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.125	.116	0.0	40.0	40	31.8	—	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jackson.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.081
Whiff%
39.1
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40
SLSlider
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.1	10.7	47.9	48	.438	9.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.3	14.9	43.5	62	.293	28.0
CUCurveball	15.8	7.7	33.3	54	.208	19.2
CHChangeup	15.0	4.8	32.5	67	.386	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	9.5	47.6	49	.405	9.1	82

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	26.0	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	9.1	36.4	55	.200	21.4	28

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	31.0	67	.386	15.0	49

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .555). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP18PA	.056	.389	.722	—	0
🐾vs LHP10PA	—	.222	.522	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home10PA	—	.300	.600	—	0
Away18PA	.059	.353	.686	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day10PA	.100	.400	.700	—	0
Night18PA	—	.294	.627	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty10PA	.100	.300	.500
Runners On10PA	—	.400	.800
RISP8PA	—	.375	.750

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs12PA	—	.364	.781
1 Out10PA	—	.200	.400
2 Outs6PA	.167	.500	.833

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-06PA	—	.333	.667
0-12PA	1.000	2.000	3.000
0-28PA	—	.143	.393
1-26PA	—	.167	.333
2-24PA	—	.250	.500
3-24PA	—	—	.250

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.