Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.3%

+783

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

10.2%

+878

RBI 1+

33.7%

+197

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.8%

95% CI · 4.6–5.1%

+1980

Fair odds

1st AB

1.2%

Through AB2

2.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Wind-1%
Contact+11%
Statcast+7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0116 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+7% (×1.07)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 7 games

Now

+785

High

+1155

Low

+570

Med

+850

Avg

+850

+785

Low +570High +1155

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.2

Proj PA

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.142

wOBA

.289

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

25.0

FB%

37.5

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

0.0

GB%

33.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

30.8

FB%

46.2

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

0.0

GB%

38.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

18.2

FB%

27.3

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

0.0

GB%

27.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

15.4

FB%

46.2

Pull%

38.5

Soft%

0.0

GB%

30.8

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

36.4

FB%

27.3

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

0.0

GB%

36.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park suppresses HRs (92)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (33% of career HRs)
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250→ vs season .2504 PA · 15d

OPS

.500

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

3-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs BAL	4	1	0	3	.250
05-20	vs CHW	0	0	0	0	—
05-19	vs CHW	2	0	1	1	—
05-18	vs CHW	3	0	0	2	—
05-16	vs SD	0	0	1	0	—
05-15	vs SD	1	0	1	1	—
05-13	@ HOU	2	0	0	0	—
05-11	@ HOU	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball11PA	—	.249	0.0	25.0	0	21.7
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.191	0.0	50.0	0	17.6	—	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.319	0.0	16.7	0	25.0	—	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Joe.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 2 of 6 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#5#1#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.9

Avg EV on HRs

103.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.249
Whiff%
21.7
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
0
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .487). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP19PA	.059	.294	.610	5.0%	0
vs LHP24PA	.200	.350	.642	14.3%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home28PA	.137	.273	.594	8.3%	1
Away15PA	.133	.400	.667	9.1%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day23PA	.100	.350	.698	—	0
Night20PA	.176	.294	.544	18.8%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty14PA	.083	.333	.690
Runners On17PA	—	.071	.306
RISP11PA	—	.111	.384

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs13PA	.333	.583	.891	1
1 Out15PA	—	.250	.650	0
2 Outs15PA	.077	.154	.354	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.