Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.8%

+625

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Cantillo (LHP) (1.48 HR/9) · park 124

2+ RBI

11.6%

+763

RBI 1+

34.9%

+187

Hits 1+

54.2%

-118

Hits 2+

13.3%

+652

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.0%

95% CI · 5.7–6.3%

+1570

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

2.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+24%
Temp+5%
Contact-21%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Cantillo (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 124)
·85F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0196 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-0% (×1.00) · blended_proj

Park+24% (×1.24)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-21% (×0.79)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+625

High

+1295

Low

+495

Med

+895

Avg

+895

+625

Low +495High +1295

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.6

Proj PA

203

HR / PA

.018

ISO

.121

wOBA

.295

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

20.6

FB%

41.9

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

17.8

GB%

45.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

10.0

FB%

22.2

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

55.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

21.6

FB%

43.8

Pull%

44.3

Soft%

18.6

GB%

44.8

Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

23.7

FB%

44.1

Pull%

47.5

Soft%

10.2

GB%

45.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.6

FB%

36.7

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

27.5

GB%

49.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Progressive Field is a hitter's haven (+24 for LHB)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #6 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .778 OPS over last 15 days
86°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (124)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.233↑ vs season .19939 PA · 15d

OPS

.778

ISO

.167

RBI

K-BB

6-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ CLE	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-11	vs MIN	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
💣 374ft · 93.2 EV · Fastball
06-10	vs MIN	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs MIN	2	2	0	0	2	0	2.000
06-07	vs SEA	3	1	0	0	1	1	.333
06-05	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-02	@ TB	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-01	@ TB	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball53PA	.093	.242	2.4	24.3	49	13.3
🐾CHChangeup16PA	—	.223	0.0	25.0	58	20.6
🐾CUCurveball14PA	—	.220	0.0	11.1	44	16.0
🐾SLSlider18PA	.063	.254	0.0	7.7	80	25.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.091	.259	2.6	23.1	49	6.7	69	53

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.238	0.0	25.0	58	18.8	69	15

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.252	0.0	11.1	44	13.0	69	13

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.056	.220	0.0	8.3	83	27.0	69	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

124

vs RHB

vs SHB

Progressive Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches McKinstry.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6#1#3#8

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.083

Barrel %

2.8

Hard Hit %

22.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.260

xBA

.199

Brl / PA %

2.00

Max EV (mph)

106.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.2

Avg EV on HRs

102.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

399

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

2.00

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joey Cantillo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
42
xwOBA
.242
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
24.3
BRL%
2.4
Pull%
49
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 53 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
29
xwOBA
.223
Whiff%
20.6
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
58
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
19
xwOBA
.220
Whiff%
16.0
HH%
11.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
44

Joey Cantillo (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	41.8	12.6	45.8	48	.386	12.6
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.5	4.0	24.5	74	.274	23.8
CUCurveball	19.2	3.0	34.4	70	.249	22.4
SLSlider	9.0	10.5	36.8	58	.340	4.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball42% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	45.8	50	.393	8.8	34
vs RHB	14.3	44.4	48	.384	15.7	92

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.0	20.0	60	.274	25.0	17
vs RHB	2.2	24.4	76	.274	23.4	76

CUCurveball19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	37.5	88	.363	11.1	10
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	32.0	64	.224	26.8	47

SLSlider9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	23.1	54	.241	5.6	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	67	.538	0.0	7

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .343). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CLE)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Progressive Field (325/410/325 ft) · elev 660ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP136PA	.092	.294	.575	2.8%	2
🐾vs LHP19PA	—	—	.222	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home84PA	.125	.361	.682	3.1%	2
🐾Away71PA	.033	.148	.365	1.8%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day54PA	.128	.362	.695	2.0%	2
Night101PA	.058	.209	.451	2.8%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty62PA	.056	.204	.462	0
Runners On57PA	.068	.273	.600	1
RISP33PA	—	.227	.633	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs52PA	.170	.404	.664	2
1 Out51PA	.068	.273	.567	0
2 Outs52PA	—	.095	.364	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.077	.423	.745	0
1-06PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-119PA	—	.263	.526	0
2-02PA	1.500	2.000	2.500	1
0-216PA	.188	.250	.312	1
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-221PA	—	—	—	0
2-226PA	.077	.269	.462	0
3-222PA	—	.077	.531	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.