Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.0%

+1158

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 85

2+ RBI

8.4%

+1095

RBI 1+

32.0%

+213

Hits 1+

50.5%

-102

Hits 2+

10.7%

+834

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.7%

95% CI · 7.4–8.0%

+1192

Fair odds

1st AB

1.4%

Through AB2

3.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
vs SP-34%
Contact-12%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast-17%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0335 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 1 HR

Now

+1160

High

+1700

Low

+560

Med

+688

Avg

+765

🐾+1160

Low +560🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1700

WARMspot score 75

Just below his HR money zone (+725 to +725). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.0

Proj PA

293

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.190

wOBA

.316

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.5

Hard%

25.6

FB%

61.7

Pull%

46.3

Soft%

19.4

GB%

22.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

10.6

FB%

57.1

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

25.5

GB%

31.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

31.9

FB%

63.6

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

16.8

GB%

18.7

Home

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

28.2

FB%

64.1

Pull%

43.7

Soft%

18.3

GB%

23.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

3.9

Hard%

23.6

FB%

60.0

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

20.2

GB%

21.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Angel Stadium suppresses HRs (85)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (33% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .820 OPS over last 15 days
Park drag (85)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.176↓ vs season .18145 PA · 15d

OPS

.820

ISO

.295

RBI

K-BB

10-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ LAA	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs BOS	3	1	1	2	0	1	1.333
💣 386ft · 103.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	vs BOS	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-08	vs BOS	2	1	0	0	2	1	.500
06-07	@ MIA	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-06	@ MIA	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ MIA	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 397ft · 102.5 EV · Splitter
06-03	vs DET	3	1	1	1	0	0	1.333
💣 399ft · 104.3 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR29PA	.083	.230	0.0	37.5	50	15.8
🐾CUCurveballvR13PA	.084	.190	0.0	50.0	50	45.5
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR74PA	.153	.280	5.8	40.4	52	19.7
🐾FSSplit-FingervR10PA	.300	.321	12.5	37.5	88	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.050	.364	0.0	19.0	67	10.8	77	28
vs RHPTONIGHT	.083	.230	0.0	37.5	50	15.8	62	29

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.084	.190	0.0	50.0	50	45.5	62	13

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.216	0.0	0.0	38	25.8	77	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.153	.280	5.8	40.4	52	19.7	62	74

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.300	.321	12.5	37.5	88	11.1	62	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Mullins.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 3 of 9 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#7#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.122

Barrel %

3.8

Hard Hit %

30.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.260

xBA

.181

Brl / PA %

2.60

Max EV (mph)

107.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.2

Avg EV on HRs

101.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

381

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.8°

Brl / PA %

2.60

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.230
Whiff%
15.8
HH%
37.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 29 PA this season.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.190
Whiff%
45.5
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 13 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.280
Whiff%
19.7
HH%
40.4
BRL%
5.8
Pull%
52
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 74 PA this season.

Career vs José Soriano (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .325). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CH🐾Changeup2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP166PA	.158	.329	.581	5.8%	6
vs LHP62PA	.020	.255	.594	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home103PA	.176	.400	.740	5.1%	4
🐾Away125PA	.080	.241	.462	3.3%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day116PA	.175	.340	.608	6.6%	4
🐾Night112PA	.070	.280	.562	1.3%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty77PA	.075	.239	.512	1
Runners On110PA	.118	.312	.581	3
RISP65PA	.135	.327	.622	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs64PA	.204	.463	.796	3
1 Out85PA	.151	.329	.603	3
2 Outs79PA	.028	.171	.402	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-029PA	.040	.320	.596	0
1-016PA	.071	.214	.402	0
0-121PA	—	.250	.488	0
2-06PA	.500	.667	.833	1
0-213PA	—	.091	.322	0
3-03PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-238PA	.079	.158	.237	1
2-236PA	.195	.389	.583	2
3-241PA	.208	.500	1.085	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.