Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

9.0%

+1015

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1019

RBI 1+

32.5%

+208

Hits 1+

64.8%

-185

Hits 2+

22.7%

+341

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.3%

95% CI · 11.9–12.7%

+713

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact+5%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

·93F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0319 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 8 games

Now

+575

High

+1095

Low

+575

Med

+625

Avg

+742

+575

Low +575High +1095

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.0

Proj PA

320

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.163

wOBA

.342

wRC+

116

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

18.9

Hard%

38.3

FB%

34.4

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

14.9

GB%

43.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

43.2

FB%

27.3

Pull%

52.3

Soft%

13.6

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

19.5

Hard%

36.4

FB%

37.3

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

15.5

GB%

40.9

Home

HR/FB

26.9

Hard%

36.7

FB%

32.9

Pull%

46.8

Soft%

12.7

GB%

43.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

40.0

FB%

36.0

Pull%

41.3

Soft%

17.3

GB%

44.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (46% of career HRs)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.256→ vs season .25744 PA · 15d

OPS

.738

ISO

.209

RBI

K-BB

16-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs MIA	4	2	0	1	0	1	.500
06-12	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs LAD	3	1	0	0	0	2	.333
06-10	vs LAD	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-09	vs LAD	4	1	1	1	0	3	1.000
💣 355ft · 102.4 EV · Slider
06-07	@ ATL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	@ ATL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-05	@ ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR27PA	.218	.463	10.0	65.0	60	3.3
🐾FCCuttervR13PA	.300	.368	14.3	28.6	43	11.5
🐾CHChangeupvR15PA	—	.303	8.3	16.7	92	30.8
🐾SLSlidervR21PA	.210	.365	7.7	61.5	85	27.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.053	.352	5.9	41.2	53	14.7	76	20
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.218	.463	10.0	65.0	60	3.3	142	27

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.300	.368	14.3	28.6	43	11.5	142	13

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.303	8.3	16.7	92	30.8	142	15

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.187	.118	0.0	25.0	100	23.8	76	16
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.210	.365	7.7	61.5	85	27.7	142	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches O'Hearn.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 11 of 24 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.178

Barrel %

6.5

Hard Hit %

44.2

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.326

xBA

.257

Brl / PA %

4.40

Max EV (mph)

108.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.5

Avg EV on HRs

102.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

392

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/7

Avg LA on HRs

30.9°

Brl / PA %

4.40

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.463
Whiff%
3.3
HH%
65.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
60
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.368
Whiff%
11.5
HH%
28.6
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
43
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.303
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
16.7
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
92

J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .467). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

SISinker1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 29 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP163PA	.197	.493	.873	8.5%	8
vs LHP63PA	.133	.383	.653	6.1%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home121PA	.238	.532	.887	9.3%	7
🐾Away105PA	.107	.376	.719	6.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day99PA	.191	.483	.826	9.0%	5
🐾Night127PA	.168	.442	.796	6.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty61PA	.146	.455	.832	2
Runners On116PA	.203	.485	.830	6
RISP66PA	.102	.356	.659	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs78PA	.176	.441	.787	3
1 Out77PA	.157	.443	.781	3
2 Outs71PA	.203	.500	.866	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.