Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

21.5%

+365

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

15.8%

+532

RBI 1+

38.8%

+158

Hits 1+

61.9%

-163

Hits 2+

19.8%

+405

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

53.4%

95% CI · 52.8–54.0%

-115

Fair odds

1st AB

18.5%

Through AB2

33.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Lineup+3%
Contact+26%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+24%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0655 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+26% (×1.26)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+345

High

+775

Low

+160

Med

+375

Avg

+380

+345

Low +160High +775

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

20.0

Proj PA

287

HR / PA

.070

ISO

.291

wOBA

.380

wRC+

139

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

32.0

Hard%

44.9

FB%

48.3

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

11.6

GB%

27.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

31.4

Hard%

44.8

FB%

40.2

Pull%

50.6

Soft%

9.2

GB%

31.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

32.3

Hard%

45.0

FB%

54.2

Pull%

59.2

Soft%

13.3

GB%

24.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

38.0

Hard%

42.3

FB%

51.5

Pull%

56.7

Soft%

9.3

GB%

25.8

Away

HR/FB

26.0

Hard%

47.3

FB%

45.5

Pull%

54.5

Soft%

13.6

GB%

28.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Elite power: .320 ISO
20.8% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
50.9% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (47% of career HRs)
Already has 1 HR / 2 RBI off this SP in 12 PA
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
Elite barrel% (20.8)
High barrels/PA (10.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.302↑ vs season .24064 PA · 15d

OPS

.894

ISO

.170

RBI

K-BB

23-11

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-16	vs MIA	2	1	1	1	2	1	2.000
💣 352ft · 96.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-15	vs MIA	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-14	@ MIL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-13	@ MIL	5	3	0	0	1	2	.600
06-12	@ MIL	3	1	0	0	0	2	.333
06-10	@ TOR	4	2	1	2	1	2	1.250
💣 423ft · 108.3 EV · Cutter
06-09	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball95PA	.367	.351	19.1	58.7	60	26.9
🐾STSweeper27PA	.182	.290	25.0	50.0	86	56.1
🐾SISinker50PA	.369	.510	20.0	40.6	69	18.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.572	.483	20.0	65.0	65	14.9	170	35
vs RHP	.269	.275	18.5	55.6	56	23.7	141	61

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.310	0.0	50.0	100	45.5	170	9
vs RHP	.200	.282	50.0	50.0	67	55.6	141	18

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.276	.480	11.1	37.0	67	18.5	170	34
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.561	50.0	62.5	75	10.5	141	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Schwarber.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected39 of 94 HRs · 41%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 44 of 94 career HRs (47%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.320

Barrel %

20.8

Hard Hit %

50.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.377

xBA

.240

Brl / PA %

10.30

Max EV (mph)

113.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.0

Avg EV on HRs

106.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

6/20

Crushed (105+ mph)

13/20

Avg LA on HRs

28.9°

Brl / PA %

10.30

Sampled across 20 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.351
Whiff%
26.9
HH%
58.7
BRL%
19.1
Pull%
60
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.290
Whiff%
56.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
86
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.510
Whiff%
18.5
HH%
40.6
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
69
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.182AVG · limited (12 PA)

OPS

.705

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .567). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

20 HRs this season

vs RHP 13vs LHP 7

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

SISinker5

CUCurveball2

FCCutter2

SLSlider2

CHChangeup2

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP200PA	.325	.550	.895	24.2%	17
vs LHP119PA	.310	.590	.985	16.9%	8

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home161PA	.385	.652	1.037	24.1%	15
Away158PA	.254	.478	.820	18.1%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day118PA	.283	.525	.889	19.7%	8
Night201PA	.341	.588	.951	22.0%	17

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty128PA	.416	.694	1.085	14
Runners On108PA	.423	.694	1.120	10
RISP53PA	.325	.541	.994	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs126PA	.241	.463	.796	7
1 Out110PA	.298	.543	.898	9
2 Outs83PA	.477	.761	1.183	9

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.