Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.5%

+589

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Drohan (LHP) (0.48 HR/9) · park 84

2+ RBI

12.0%

+735

RBI 1+

35.3%

+184

Hits 1+

61.4%

-159

Hits 2+

19.3%

+418

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

28.6%

95% CI · 28.1–29.2%

+249

Fair odds

1st AB

7.9%

Through AB2

15.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP-6%
Contact+28%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast+1%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Shane Drohan (LHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0651 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-6% (×0.94) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+28% (×1.28)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 2 HR

Now

+590

High

+845

Low

+225

Med

+300

Avg

+350

🐾🐾+590

Low +225🐾 HR money zoneHigh +845

WARMspot score 83

Just below his HR money zone (+365 to +405). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

26.7

Proj PA

401

HR / PA

.067

ISO

.283

wOBA

.379

wRC+

141

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

32.0

Hard%

40.8

FB%

51.0

Pull%

57.1

Soft%

12.2

GB%

29.3

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

43.3

FB%

40.0

Pull%

53.3

Soft%

6.7

GB%

35.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

31.4

Hard%

39.1

FB%

58.6

Pull%

59.8

Soft%

16.1

GB%

25.3

Home

HR/FB

35.0

Hard%

37.3

FB%

53.3

Pull%

54.7

Soft%

10.7

GB%

24.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

43.8

FB%

47.9

Pull%

58.9

Soft%

13.7

GB%

34.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.48 HR/9
Elite power: .332 ISO
21.8% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
50.3% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (47% of career HRs)
82°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (84)
Elite barrel% (21.8)
High barrels/PA (10.9%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.48 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250↑ vs season .23758 PA · 15d

OPS

.817

ISO

.188

RBI

K-BB

23-10

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIL	3	1	0	0	0	2	.333
06-10	@ TOR	4	2	1	2	1	2	1.250
💣 423ft · 108.3 EV · Cutter
06-09	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250
06-07	vs CHW	3	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-06	vs CHW	4	0	0	0	1	3	—
06-05	vs CHW	5	4	0	0	0	1	.800
06-04	vs SD	4	1	0	0	1	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL30PA	.667	.511	22.2	66.7	61	14.6
🐾SISinkervL32PA	.297	.491	12.0	40.0	72	16.4
🐾SLSlidervL17PA	—	.275	14.3	14.3	86	35.9
🐾FCCuttervL6PA	1.000	.823	40.0	40.0	60	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.667	.511	22.2	66.7	61	14.6	172	30
vs RHP	.234	.294	19.2	53.8	54	24.1	143	56

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.297	.491	12.0	40.0	72	16.4	172	32
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.553	50.0	62.5	75	11.1	143	18

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.275	14.3	14.3	86	35.9	172	17
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.348	28.6	57.1	86	39.1	143	29

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	1.000	.823	40.0	40.0	60	16.7	172	6
vs RHP	.250	.382	10.0	60.0	100	14.7	143	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Schwarber.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 44 of 94 career HRs (47%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.332

Barrel %

21.8

Hard Hit %

50.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.378

xBA

.237

Brl / PA %

10.90

Max EV (mph)

113.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.0

Avg EV on HRs

106.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

6/20

Crushed (105+ mph)

13/20

Avg LA on HRs

28.9°

Brl / PA %

10.90

Sampled across 20 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.511
Whiff%
14.6
HH%
66.7
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
61
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.491
Whiff%
16.4
HH%
40.0
BRL%
12.0
Pull%
72
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.275
Whiff%
35.9
HH%
14.3
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
86
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.

Shane Drohan (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.3	13.6	52.6	46	.226	24.1
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	19.8	14.3	53.6	64	.376	25.0
SLSlider	18.4	3.4	25.9	76	.216	22.0
FCCutter	15.7	10.7	29.2	64	.357	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	45.5	55	.322	18.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	45.5	36	.164	25.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	8.3	41.7	83	.310	16.7	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	62.5	50	.424	—	18

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.3	26.3	68	.193	29.0	28
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.267	10.3	14

FCCutter16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	20.0	20.0	80	.372	—	6
vs RHB	8.7	34.8	61	.353	9.1	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .567). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

20 HRs this season

vs RHP 13vs LHP 7

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

SISinker5

CUCurveball2

FCCutter2

SLSlider2

CHChangeup2

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP187PA	.329	.551	.893	24.7%	16
🐾vs LHP109PA	.337	.609	.994	18.5%	8

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home148PA	.392	.664	1.049	24.1%	14
🐾Away148PA	.272	.480	.811	20.0%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day110PA	.307	.560	.942	21.3%	8
🐾Night186PA	.346	.579	.923	22.6%	16

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty122PA	.403	.663	1.032	13
Runners On99PA	.462	.731	1.155	10
RISP50PA	.334	.556	.996	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs113PA	.271	.500	.845	7
1 Out104PA	.312	.556	.902	9
2 Outs79PA	.453	.703	1.095	8

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-023PA	.714	1.238	1.803	5
1-016PA	.500	.875	1.250	2
0-116PA	.812	1.250	1.688	4
2-04PA	—	—	.250	0
0-227PA	—	.074	.148	0
3-012PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-243PA	.186	.279	.372	2
2-251PA	.098	.157	.216	1
3-262PA	.349	.605	1.089	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.