Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.4%

+594

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (1.79 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.9%

+739

RBI 1+

35.2%

+184

Hits 1+

60.0%

-150

Hits 2+

18.0%

+456

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.0%

95% CI · 10.7–11.4%

+809

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+4%
Lineup+3%
Contact-3%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-7%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0301 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+4% (×1.04) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+600

High

+1340

Low

+460

Med

+675

Avg

+759

+600

Low +460High +1340

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.6

Proj PA

211

HR / PA

.036

ISO

.188

wOBA

.329

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.1

Hard%

35.8

FB%

39.9

Pull%

50.3

Soft%

17.9

GB%

36.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

41.8

FB%

38.0

Pull%

49.4

Soft%

15.2

GB%

36.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

30.9

FB%

41.5

Pull%

51.1

Soft%

20.2

GB%

36.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

36.4

FB%

46.8

Pull%

49.4

Soft%

20.8

GB%

33.8

Away

HR/FB

12.1

Hard%

35.4

FB%

34.4

Pull%

51.0

Soft%

15.6

GB%

38.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (44% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .886 OPS over last 15 days
Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250↑ vs season .22944 PA · 15d

OPS

.886

ISO

.250

RBI

K-BB

10-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ WSH	4	1	1	1	1	1	1.000
💣 411ft · 100.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	@ WSH	3	1	1	1	2	0	1.333
💣 407ft · 101.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-15	@ WSH	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-14	vs HOU	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	vs HOU	3	1	1	1	1	1	1.333
💣 432ft · 105.4 EV · Sinker
06-12	vs HOU	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs TEX	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-10	vs TEX	4	2	0	1	0	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball67PA	.192	.329	10.8	45.9	60	17.1
🐾SLSlider18PA	—	.241	0.0	14.3	63	42.9
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup17PA	—	.440	0.0	30.0	64	26.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.037	.232	0.0	44.4	72	18.9	108	35
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.346	.424	21.1	47.4	47	7.9	100	36

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.358	0.0	33.3	67	30.0	108	8
vs RHP	—	.148	0.0	0.0	60	50.0	100	11

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.467	0.0	27.3	64	19.0	108	18
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Thomas.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected3 of 18 HRs · 17%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 8 of 18 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.130

Barrel %

5.5

Hard Hit %

36.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.324

xBA

.229

Brl / PA %

3.40

Max EV (mph)

107.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

26.5°

Brl / PA %

3.40

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.329
Whiff%
17.1
HH%
45.9
BRL%
10.8
Pull%
60
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
.241
Whiff%
42.9
HH%
14.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Matthew Liberatore

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Matthew Liberatore arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.4	12.5	47.4	48	.449	10.4
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	14.9	43.5	62	.293	27.7
CUCurveball	16.4	13.3	35.7	60	.208	19.8
CHChangeup	15.4	4.4	32.6	67	.383	9.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	11.8	47.1	49	.421	10.2	89

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	25.6	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	15.4	38.5	62	.209	20.8	31

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.4	31.1	67	.383	13.6	53

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .366). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

nan1

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 11 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP93PA	.169	.377	.710	9.8%	4
vs LHP86PA	.087	.333	.717	3.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home76PA	.145	.355	.697	7.3%	2
Away103PA	.119	.357	.726	6.2%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day75PA	.115	.295	.615	5.9%	2
🐾Night104PA	.141	.400	.785	7.2%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty59PA	.167	.396	.769	2
Runners On79PA	.127	.397	.789	2
RISP46PA	.213	.455	.868	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs67PA	.077	.269	.612	1
1 Out55PA	.171	.426	.790	2
2 Outs57PA	.149	.383	.751	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.