Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.6%

+691

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Mike Burrows (RHP) (2.09 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

10.9%

+813

RBI 1+

34.3%

+191

Hits 1+

59.0%

-144

Hits 2+

17.2%

+482

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.7%

95% CI · 10.3–11.0%

+838

Fair odds

1st AB

3.0%

Through AB2

6.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact-10%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-15%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Mike Burrows (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0276 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 8 games

Now

+690

High

+925

Low

+495

Med

+608

Avg

+657

+690

Low +495High +925

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.8

Proj PA

264

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.166

wOBA

.320

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.4

Hard%

21.1

FB%

47.4

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

22.1

GB%

28.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

22.0

FB%

46.0

Pull%

52.0

Soft%

22.0

GB%

28.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

20.0

FB%

48.9

Pull%

35.6

Soft%

22.2

GB%

28.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

27.9

FB%

55.8

Pull%

48.8

Soft%

25.6

GB%

25.6

Away

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

15.4

FB%

40.4

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

19.2

GB%

30.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Mike Burrows is leaky — 2.09 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (44% of career HRs)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Pitcher HR-prone (2.09 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.257↑ vs season .22440 PA · 15d

OPS

.721

ISO

.114

RBI

K-BB

10-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs HOU	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs TEX	3	0	0	1	2	—
06-10	vs TEX	4	2	1	0	1	.500
06-07	@ MIN	5	1	0	0	2	.200
06-06	@ MIN	2	1	0	1	0	.500
06-05	@ MIN	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-04	@ MIN	1	1	0	0	0	1.000
06-03	@ CIN	1	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR32PA	.136	.409	12.5	43.8	38	10.0
🐾CHChangeup17PA	—	.440	0.0	30.0	64	26.9
🐾SLSlidervR9PA	—	.097	0.0	—	75	58.8
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.042	.223	0.0	47.1	77	19.2	112	30
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.136	.409	12.5	43.8	38	10.0	76	32

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.467	0.0	27.3	64	19.0	112	18
vs RHP	no sample

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.358	0.0	33.3	67	30.0	112	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.097	0.0	0.0	75	58.8	76	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Thomas.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 8 of 18 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.079

Barrel %

3.2

Hard Hit %

35.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.310

xBA

.224

Brl / PA %

1.90

Max EV (mph)

107.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

407

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

26.5°

Brl / PA %

1.90

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Mike Burrows · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.409
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
43.8
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
38
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
28
xwOBA
.440
Whiff%
26.9
HH%
30.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
64
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.097
Whiff%
58.8
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75

Mike Burrows (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.8	16.7	50.8	52	.434	14.3
CHChangeup	27.5	3.2	27.1	76	.281	18.6
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.3	6.1	31.1	59	.301	21.8
CUCurveball	14.6	24.0	45.5	68	.319	17.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	18.0	56.0	50	.441	13.0	66
vs RHB	12.5	50.0	56	.416	14.7	23

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	3.6	23.6	75	.300	10.8	71
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.216	34.3	22

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	38.1	67	.411	24.2	32
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	54	.191	13.3	32

CUCurveball15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	26.7	46.7	73	.391	15.4	20
vs RHB	20.0	30.0	60	.237	18.4	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .366). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

nan1

SISinker1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP78PA	.063	.266	.599	6.0%	1
vs LHP79PA	.094	.344	.724	3.6%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home69PA	.107	.321	.669	6.0%	1
Away88PA	.056	.292	.656	3.6%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day67PA	.074	.259	.587	4.4%	1
🐾Night90PA	.081	.338	.716	5.0%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty51PA	.049	.244	.597	0
Runners On72PA	.138	.431	.834	2
RISP44PA	.219	.469	.878	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs58PA	.022	.222	.567	0
1 Out46PA	.051	.282	.630	0
2 Outs53PA	.159	.409	.786	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-023PA	.227	.500	.761	1
1-010PA	.375	.625	.825	1
0-110PA	—	.333	.733	0
2-02PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-213PA	—	.154	.308	0
3-08PA	.500	1.000	1.875	0
1-222PA	—	.273	.545	0
2-227PA	—	.074	.148	0
3-234PA	—	.167	.725	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.