Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.8%

+1174

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Yesavage (0.57 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #8Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.3%

+1102

RBI 1+

31.9%

+213

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.7%

95% CI · 4.5–4.9%

+2031

Fair odds

1st AB

1.1%

Through AB2

2.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-17%
Contact-13%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·19 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0210 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-17% (×0.83) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+725

High

+8030

Low

+600

Med

+775

Avg

+1465

+725

Low +600High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.6

Proj PA

102

HR / PA

.025

ISO

.137

wOBA

.301

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.3

Hard%

27.3

FB%

36.6

Pull%

44.3

Soft%

21.6

GB%

40.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

14.7

FB%

43.3

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

26.5

GB%

36.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.2

FB%

32.7

Pull%

48.1

Soft%

18.5

GB%

42.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

37.0

FB%

30.8

Pull%

55.6

Soft%

18.5

GB%

46.2

Away

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

23.0

FB%

39.3

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

23.0

GB%

37.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Trey Yesavage stingy: only 0.57 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (43% of career HRs)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.57 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.400↑ vs season .25013 PA · 15d

OPS

.938

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

2-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs TOR	2	2	0	1	0	1.000
06-12	vs TEX	2	0	0	1	1	—
06-05	@ NYY	3	1	0	0	1	.333
06-04	vs BAL	3	1	0	0	0	.333
05-31	@ CLE	3	1	0	1	1	.667
05-30	@ CLE	5	2	3	0	0	.600
05-24	vs MIN	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-23	vs MIN	3	0	0	1	3	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball22PA	.167	.326	5.6	37.5	33	9.5
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.246	0.0	37.5	25	0.0	—	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.398	10.0	30.0	40	9.7	145	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Wong.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Confirmed1 of 7 HRs · 14%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 3 of 7 career HRs (43%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Yesavage · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
47
xwOBA
.326
Whiff%
9.5
HH%
37.5
BRL%
5.6
Pull%
33
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
21
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Trey Yesavage arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	47.0	3.2	35.5	40	.280	21.7
FSSplit-Finger	31.6	5.6	22.2	69	.274	15.2
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.4	7.4	44.4	82	.286	24.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball47% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	2.9	42.9	49	.319	30.3	54
vs RHB	3.7	25.9	30	.234	16.9	44

FSSplit-Finger32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.2	21.9	69	.292	16.9	49
vs RHB	0.0	25.0	75	.183	11.8	9

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	45.5	73	.262	15.4	14
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	43.8	88	.299	28.1	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .347). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP65PA	.148	.463	.876	4.1%	0
vs LHP24PA	—	.182	.432	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home36PA	.034	.241	.584	3.7%	0
Away53PA	.149	.468	.853	2.4%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day53PA	.106	.383	.729	2.0%	0
Night36PA	.103	.379	.779	5.3%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty29PA	.087	.304	.683
Runners On37PA	.156	.469	.840
RISP22PA	.105	.316	.602

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs36PA	.059	.265	.515
1 Out25PA	.053	.316	.707
2 Outs28PA	.218	.609	1.109

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.