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Gavin SheetsLHB
SD
🐾 Tonight2:05 PM MT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Home Run
13.5%
+643
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Trey Gibson (RHP) (1.06 HR/9) · park 136
2+ RBI
11.4%
+777
RBI 1+
34.7%
+188
Hits 1+
62.1%
-164
Hits 2+
20.0%
+401
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
26.8%
95% CI · 26.3–27.3%
+274
Fair odds
1st AB
7.6%
Through AB2
14.4%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park+36%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP-3%
  • Contact+22%
  • SP Contact+5%
  • Statcast+8%
  • SP Statcast+4%
  • Discipline+2%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trey Gibson (RHP)
  • ·HR-friendly park (factor 136)
  • ·90F game
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
  • ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0355 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj
Park+36% (×1.36)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+22% (×1.22)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)
SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)
Discipline+2% (×1.02)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games · 1 HR
Now
+645
High
+1305
Low
+385
Med
+662
Avg
+730
🐾+645
Low +385🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1305
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-13 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
10.4
Proj PA
311
HR / PA
.034
ISO
.167
wOBA
.316
wRC+
103
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG
Season
HR/FB
15.6
Hard%
38.3
FB%
45.4
Pull%
42.6
Soft%
17.0
GB%
40.4
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
29.2
FB%
12.5
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
8.3
GB%
70.8
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
16.4
Hard%
40.2
FB%
52.1
Pull%
41.0
Soft%
18.8
GB%
34.2
Home
HR/FB
8.6
Hard%
33.8
FB%
49.3
Pull%
38.0
Soft%
16.9
GB%
36.6
🐾Away
HR/FB
23.3
Hard%
40.5
FB%
40.5
Pull%
47.3
Soft%
16.2
GB%
44.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
4.0 🐾
STRONG PLAY
  • Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a hitter's haven (+36 for LHB)
  • Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (33% of career HRs)
  • 90°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park boost (136)
  • High barrels/PA (6.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.163↓ vs season .24150 PA · 15d
OPS
.582
ISO
.139
HR
1
RBI
6
K-BB
14-6
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12@ BAL420200.750
06-10vs CIN410100.500
06-09vs CIN500003—
06-08vs CIN410102.500
06-06vs NYM300001—
06-05vs NYM400000—
06-04@ PHI200021—
06-03@ PHI300012—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾SIvR26PA.208.37710.557.9587.3
🐾FCvR17PA.667.52930.869.28512.5
🐾SLvR19PA.400.3250.036.47320.6
🐾CUvR12PA—.1770.050.07013.6
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.084.1970.066.75618.23212
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.208.37710.557.9587.313326
FCCutter
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT.667.52930.869.28512.513317
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT.400.3250.036.47320.613319
CUCurveball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHPTONIGHT—.1770.050.07013.613312
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
136
vs RHB
88
vs SHB
112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Sheets.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 4 of 12 career HRs (33%).
1
·
1
2
·
4
3
🐾
4
4
🐾
2
5
🐾
6
·
1
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.219
Barrel %
9.2
Hard Hit %
45.4
Pull % (HRs)
100
xwOBA
.328
xBA
.241
Brl / PA %
6.00
Max EV (mph)
110.1
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
111.3
Avg EV on HRs
104.4
Avg HR Distance (ft)
405
HRs in sample
12
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/12
Crushed (105+ mph)
6/12
Avg LA on HRs
29.3°
Brl / PA %
6.00

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Trey Gibson · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT
  • SISinkervs RHP
    Use%
    28
    xwOBA
    .377
    Whiff%
    7.3
    HH%
    57.9
    BRL%
    10.5
    Pull%
    58
  • FCCuttervs RHP
    Use%
    24
    xwOBA
    .529
    Whiff%
    12.5
    HH%
    69.2
    BRL%
    30.8
    Pull%
    85

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

  • SLSlidervs RHP
    Use%
    19
    xwOBA
    .325
    Whiff%
    20.6
    HH%
    36.4
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    73
Trey Gibson (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
SI28.410.040.055.3705.9
FC24.214.342.971.4257.1
SL18.90.050.075.3417.7
CU⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT16.125.050.063.58016.7
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
SISinker28% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.057.157.436—7
vs RHB15.430.854.3427.116
FCCutter24% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT22.244.467.5410.09
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY0.040.080.27612.57
SLSlider19% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB0.033.3100.26713.38
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.066.750.4250.07
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY14.342.957.44720.09
vs RHBno sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 16.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.32.36.36.33.48.30.29.52🐾.37
🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .517). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)
CFLFRF333ft410ft318ftCHFFFFFFFCFFFCCHFFFCSLSI
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft
12 HRs this season
vs RHP 12vs LHP 0
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5
FCCutter3
CHChangeup2
SLSlider1
SISinker1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP181PA.258.503.84012.0%10
vs LHP40PA.054.216.441—0
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home113PA.165.340.5889.8%3
🐾Away108PA.280.570.95910.5%7
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day80PA.309.574.94911.5%5
Night141PA.172.383.6679.3%5
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty86PA.160.360.6623
Runners On90PA.272.545.9235
RISP45PA.425.8001.2444
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs66PA.238.508.8113
1 Out83PA.169.390.6673
2 Outs72PA.268.464.8394
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-021PA.450.7501.0833
1-06PA.500.667.8331
0-123PA.5221.0871.6522
2-03PA——.3330
0-230PA.100.200.3001
3-05PA——1.0000
1-233PA.151.303.4551
2-239PA.102.256.4101
3-234PA.084.292.7330

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.