Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.9%

+617

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (RHP) (0.91 HR/9) · park 101

2+ RBI

11.7%

+757

RBI 1+

35.0%

+186

Hits 1+

71.5%

-251

Hits 2+

30.3%

+230

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

37.6%

95% CI · 37.1–38.2%

+166

Fair odds

1st AB

11.4%

Through AB2

21.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+1%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact+24%
SP Contact-5%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Burke (RHP)

·85F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0636 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park+1% (×1.01)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 2 HR

Now

+615

High

+565

Low

+205

Med

+360

Avg

+351

🐾🐾+615

Low +205🐾 HR money zoneHigh +565

BELOW ZONEspot score 61

Longer price than he's homered at (+275 to +285). Model sees less pop tonight.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

25.8

Proj PA

390

HR / PA

.066

ISO

.302

wOBA

.416

wRC+

168

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.1

Hard%

49.7

FB%

38.0

Pull%

52.5

Soft%

8.4

GB%

40.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

42.1

FB%

43.9

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

10.5

GB%

43.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

53.3

FB%

35.2

Pull%

58.2

Soft%

7.4

GB%

39.3

Home

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

42.9

FB%

36.4

Pull%

58.4

Soft%

9.1

GB%

46.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

15.0

Hard%

54.9

FB%

39.2

Pull%

48.0

Soft%

7.8

GB%

36.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

16.2% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
53.1% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (81% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.289 OPS over last 15 days
86°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Elite barrel% (16.2)
High barrels/PA (9.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.440↑ vs season .30057 PA · 15d

OPS

1.289

ISO

.340

RBI

K-BB

14-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-11	@ PIT	2	2	1	1	2	0	2.500
💣 391ft · 107.7 EV · Sweeper
06-10	@ PIT	5	1	1	2	0	2	.800
💣 412ft · 103.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	@ PIT	4	1	0	2	1	1	.500
06-07	vs LAA	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400
06-06	vs LAA	4	2	1	2	1	1	1.250
💣 406ft · 110.4 EV · Sinker
06-05	vs LAA	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-03	@ ARI	4	3	0	0	2	1	.750
06-02	@ ARI	4	2	0	2	1	1	1.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR65PA	.231	.479	27.8	61.1	58	23.7
🐾CUCurveballvR20PA	—	.241	0.0	12.5	38	35.1
🐾SLSlidervR21PA	.400	.486	9.1	72.7	73	28.1
🐾SISinkervR26PA	.227	.508	15.8	68.4	63	16.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.176	.214	8.3	33.3	58	10.0	164	18
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.231	.479	27.8	61.1	58	23.7	166	65

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.244	25.0	75.0	75	41.7	164	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.241	0.0	12.5	38	35.1	166	20

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.118	.221	7.7	46.2	46	28.0	164	17
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.400	.486	9.1	72.7	73	28.1	166	21

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.643	.645	20.0	40.0	47	19.4	164	19
vs RHPTONIGHT	.227	.508	15.8	68.4	63	16.2	166	26

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

101

vs RHB

vs SHB

Rate Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Ohtani.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 97 of 120 career HRs (81%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.238

Barrel %

16.2

Hard Hit %

53.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.418

xBA

.300

Brl / PA %

9.70

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.6

Avg EV on HRs

108.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/7

Avg LA on HRs

29.1°

Brl / PA %

9.70

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
38
xwOBA
.479
Whiff%
23.7
HH%
61.1
BRL%
27.8
Pull%
58
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.241
Whiff%
35.1
HH%
12.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
38
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 20 PA this season.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.486
Whiff%
28.1
HH%
72.7
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
73
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Sean Burke (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Sean Burke (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	37.5	11.2	36.6	47	.289	18.6
CUCurveball	21.1	—	38.2	—	.280	18.2
SLSlider	16.8	6.1	29.0	67	.291	16.9
SISinker	16.3	2.4	35.7	52	.337	11.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY38% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.9	40.0	56	.331	17.2	86
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.228	21.2	62

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	37.5	50	.275	19.0	15
vs RHB	8.0	24.0	72	.300	15.4	35

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	53.3	53	.371	21.1	23
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .575). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CHW)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Rate Field (330/400/335 ft) · elev 595ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker3

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP215PA	.229	.529	.964	18.4%	8
vs LHP83PA	.260	.575	.961	13.3%	5

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home133PA	.220	.495	.901	13.6%	7
🐾Away165PA	.254	.582	1.015	19.2%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day85PA	.250	.574	1.009	19.6%	4
Night213PA	.234	.531	.946	15.7%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty71PA	.180	.475	.869	3
Runners On117PA	.194	.484	.894	3
RISP67PA	.254	.529	.932	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs137PA	.276	.580	.999	7
1 Out94PA	.342	.630	1.056	6
2 Outs67PA	.034	.362	.780	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-037PA	.441	.853	1.285	4
1-020PA	.500	1.000	1.450	2
0-119PA	.211	.737	1.263	0
2-04PA	.250	.750	1.250	0
0-226PA	—	.042	.157	0
3-015PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-242PA	.073	.268	.483	0
2-249PA	.122	.408	.694	1
3-247PA	.107	.250	.739	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.