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Rodolfo DuránRHB
SD
🐾 Tonight2:05 PM MT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Home Run
10.2%
+885
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Trey Gibson (RHP) (1.06 HR/9) · park 88
2+ RBI
9.6%
+944
RBI 1+
33.1%
+202
Hits 1+
63.7%
-175
Hits 2+
21.5%
+365
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
16.9%
95% CI · 16.4–17.3%
+493
Fair odds
1st AB
4.3%
Through AB2
8.8%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-12%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP-3%
  • Contact+24%
  • SP Contact+5%
  • SP Statcast+4%
  • Discipline+2%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trey Gibson (RHP)
  • ·90F game
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0379 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj
Park-12% (×0.88)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)
Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)
SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)
Discipline+2% (×1.02)
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-13 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
0.5
Proj PA
19
HR / PA
.026
ISO
.137
wOBA
.281
wRC+
80
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG
Season
HR/FB
11.1
Hard%
35.0
FB%
45.0
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
25.0
GB%
40.0
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
40.0
FB%
60.0
Pull%
20.0
Soft%
40.0
GB%
40.0
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
16.7
Hard%
33.3
FB%
40.0
Pull%
60.0
Soft%
20.0
GB%
40.0
Home
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
35.7
FB%
28.6
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
7.1
GB%
50.0
🐾Away
HR/FB
20.0
Hard%
33.3
FB%
83.3
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
66.7
GB%
16.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
  • Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
  • 90°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park drag (88)
  • High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.111↓ vs season .25013 PA · 15d
OPS
.607
ISO
.111
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
2-4
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-10vs CIN410000.500
06-05vs NYM100020—
06-03@ PHI100010—
06-02@ PHI000000—
05-31@ WSH000000—
05-30@ WSH300012—
05-27vs PHI000000—
05-26vs PHI000000—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾SI——————
🐾FC——————
🐾SL——————
🐾CU——————
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
136
🐾vs RHB
88
vs SHB
112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Durán.

Season Statcast
Barrel %
7.5
Pull % (HRs)
67
xBA
.250
Brl / PA %
6.18
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
105.5
Avg EV on HRs
100.6
Avg HR Distance (ft)
381
HRs in sample
3
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/3
Crushed (105+ mph)
1/3
Avg LA on HRs
30.0°
Brl / PA %
6.18

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Trey Gibson · top 3 pitches tonight
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Unknown
  • SISinker
    Use%
    28
    xwOBA
    —
    Whiff%
    —
    HH%
    —
    BRL%
    —
    Pull%
    —
  • FCCutter
    Use%
    24
    xwOBA
    —
    Whiff%
    —
    HH%
    —
    BRL%
    —
    Pull%
    —
  • SLSlider
    Use%
    19
    xwOBA
    —
    Whiff%
    —
    HH%
    —
    BRL%
    —
    Pull%
    —
Trey Gibson (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
SI28.410.040.055.3705.9
FC24.214.342.971.4257.1
SL18.90.050.075.3417.7
CU⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT16.125.050.063.58016.7
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
SISinker28% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.057.157.436—7
vs RHB15.430.854.3427.116
FCCutter24% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT22.244.467.5410.09
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY0.040.080.27612.57
SLSlider19% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB0.033.3100.26713.38
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.066.750.4250.07
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY14.342.957.44720.09
vs RHBno sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 16.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

—1.61🐾.00—.38.61—.05.00
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA 1.608). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)
CFLFRF333ft410ft318ftFFSIFF
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft
3 HRs this season
vs RHP 1vs LHP 2
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
SISinker1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP23PA.210.368.67212.5%1
vs LHP14PA——.28625.0%0
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home25PA.053.158.47812.5%0
🐾Away12PA.300.400.65025.0%1
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day21PA.211.316.50614.3%1
Night16PA—.100.53820.0%0
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty19PA.077.154.5220
Runners On7PA.428.571.7141
RISP2PA1.5002.0002.5001
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs12PA—.100.3500
1 Out11PA.125.250.6140
2 Outs14PA.273.364.6501
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-07PA1.2851.7142.1433
1-01PA—1.0002.0000
0-14PA.250.500.7500
2-01PA———0
0-24PA———0
3-01PA——1.0000
1-25PA———0
2-28PA——.1250
3-26PA——.8330

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.