Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.4%

+645

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.4%

+779

RBI 1+

34.7%

+188

Hits 1+

69.3%

-226

Hits 2+

27.6%

+262

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.1%

95% CI · 14.7–15.5%

+563

Fair odds

1st AB

3.8%

Through AB2

7.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact-17%
Statcast+18%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0357 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+18% (×1.18)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+530

High

+1500

Low

+390

Med

+625

Avg

+710

+530

Low +390High +1500

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.3

Proj PA

153

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.192

wOBA

.334

wRC+

114

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.1

Hard%

38.9

FB%

34.7

Pull%

35.9

Soft%

15.6

GB%

44.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.7

FB%

36.4

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

27.3

GB%

50.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

41.4

FB%

34.5

Pull%

36.6

Soft%

13.8

GB%

43.4

Home

HR/FB

20.6

Hard%

41.9

FB%

39.5

Pull%

37.2

Soft%

10.5

GB%

39.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.8

FB%

29.6

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

21.0

GB%

49.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (30% of career HRs)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (8.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.300↑ vs season .28532 PA · 15d

OPS

.844

ISO

.200

RBI

K-BB

6-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ BOS	3	1	0	0	0	0	.667
06-14	vs NYY	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-13	vs NYY	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-09	vs PHI	4	3	1	1	0	0	1.750
💣 396ft · 101.8 EV · Cutter
06-08	vs PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs BAL	4	2	0	0	0	1	.750
06-06	vs BAL	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-05	vs BAL	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball66PA	.167	.333	8.0	43.5	42	24.5
🐾FCCutter16PA	.466	.506	23.5	42.9	71	23.7
🐾STSweeper15PA	—	.357	10.0	40.0	40	28.6
🐾CUCurveball27PA	.320	.406	35.7	52.9	50	29.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.162	.333	8.3	45.8	42	22.0	132	69

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.611	.506	23.5	52.9	71	21.4	132	19

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.260	0.0	42.9	43	22.2	2	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.474	33.3	33.3	33	33.3	132	7

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.412	.502	38.5	61.5	54	27.6	132	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Sánchez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed6 of 20 HRs · 30%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 6 of 20 career HRs (30%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#4#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.177

Barrel %

11.5

Hard Hit %

46.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.344

xBA

.285

Brl / PA %

8.40

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.8

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

29.5°

Brl / PA %

8.40

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.333
Whiff%
24.5
HH%
43.5
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
42
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.506
Whiff%
23.7
HH%
42.9
BRL%
23.5
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
40.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
40

Career vs Sonny Gray

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.333

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .443). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

CU🐾Curveball2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 28 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP188PA	.198	.506	.852	13.1%	7
vs LHP27PA	.038	.192	.377	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home120PA	.294	.615	.982	17.0%	7
🐾Away95PA	.034	.281	.555	5.0%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day105PA	.181	.436	.741	8.9%	4
Night110PA	.173	.490	.835	13.5%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty68PA	.134	.388	.653	2
Runners On105PA	.226	.570	.951	4
RISP50PA	.233	.512	.812	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs77PA	.221	.500	.851	3
1 Out72PA	.107	.455	.816	1
2 Outs66PA	.204	.438	.696	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.