Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

17.0%

+487

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gavin Williams (RHP) (1.36 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #4Projected lineup

2+ RBI

13.4%

+648

RBI 1+

36.5%

+174

Hits 1+

68.1%

-213

Hits 2+

26.2%

+282

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.4%

95% CI · 13.0–13.8%

+646

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

6.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-3%
Contact-6%
SP Contact+10%
SP Statcast+6%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Gavin Williams (RHP)

·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0308 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+10% (×1.10)

SP Statcast allowed+6% (×1.06)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+490

High

+1355

Low

+360

Med

+735

Avg

+740

🐾+490

Low +360🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1355

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+7652026-06-06vs COLbook line

AwayBat 4thoff LHPCutter

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.0

Proj PA

346

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.170

wOBA

.348

wRC+

122

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.8

Hard%

36.0

FB%

39.1

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

16.9

GB%

41.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

38.6

FB%

36.8

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

7.0

GB%

36.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

6.0

Hard%

35.1

FB%

39.9

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

20.2

GB%

43.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.0

Hard%

32.0

FB%

46.7

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

18.9

GB%

36.1

Away

HR/FB

6.5

Hard%

40.8

FB%

30.1

Pull%

38.8

Soft%

14.6

GB%

48.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (46% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (5.6%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (12.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.298↑ vs season .27751 PA · 15d

OPS

.801

ISO

.170

RBI

K-BB

7-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	vs PHI	4	2	0	0	0	0	.750
06-13	vs PHI	5	3	0	0	0	0	.600
06-12	vs PHI	3	1	0	1	1	0	.667
06-10	@ ATH	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	@ ATH	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-08	@ ATH	6	3	1	3	1	1	1.000
💣 463ft · 106.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	@ COL	5	2	0	1	0	0	.400
06-06	@ COL	5	2	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 434ft · 104.1 EV · Cutter

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR25PA	.040	.171	11.1	22.2	78	28.9
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR49PA	.334	.353	15.4	51.3	39	13.0
🐾CUCurveball15PA	—	.292	14.3	50.0	71	36.0
🐾SISinkervR71PA	.048	.340	8.1	46.8	58	5.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.040	.171	11.1	22.2	78	28.9	105	25

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.150	.401	0.0	55.6	50	10.5	135	27
vs RHPTONIGHT	.334	.353	15.4	51.3	39	13.0	105	49

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.166	25.0	75.0	50	50.0	135	8
vs RHP	no sample

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.223	.355	10.0	40.0	50	10.5	135	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.048	.340	8.1	46.8	58	5.1	105	71

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Contreras.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Projected5 of 41 HRs · 12%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 19 of 41 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.116

Barrel %

7.1

Hard Hit %

41.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.336

xBA

.277

Brl / PA %

5.60

Max EV (mph)

112.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.9

Avg EV on HRs

105.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

404

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/6

Avg LA on HRs

28.8°

Brl / PA %

5.60

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gavin Williams · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
26
xwOBA
.171
Whiff%
28.9
HH%
22.2
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
78
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.353
Whiff%
13.0
HH%
51.3
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
39
CUCurveball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.292
Whiff%
36.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
71

Gavin Williams (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	25.7	6.8	25.6	77	.247	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.2	11.7	46.7	32	.375	19.8
CUCurveball	23.8	11.5	55.2	80	.290	20.5
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.0	12.2	63.6	59	.383	32.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.9	17.6	88	.203	27.6	37
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.4	37.0	70	.291	22.4	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.2	41.5	34	.372	20.3	63
vs RHB	10.5	63.2	26	.383	15.0	31

CUCurveball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.2	60.9	85	.336	21.7	72
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	67	.114	13.8	19

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	42.9	64	.366	22.2	20
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.4	68.6	57	.391	38.5	48

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .456). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

FCCutter2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP208PA	.101	.392	.733	8.9%	4
vs LHP79PA	.160	.464	.844	7.0%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home157PA	.138	.445	.814	9.3%	4
Away130PA	.091	.372	.703	7.5%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day107PA	.122	.422	.824	4.8%	1
🐾Night180PA	.113	.405	.727	10.5%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty102PA	.103	.381	.695	1
Runners On137PA	.144	.466	.853	4
RISP88PA	.146	.453	.817	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs82PA	.169	.468	.809	4
1 Out107PA	.106	.404	.750	2
2 Outs98PA	.081	.368	.735	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Wed.