Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.0%

+810

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.0%

+896

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

As LHB(vs RHP)

-25wRC+

🐾As RHB(vs LHP)

86wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.4%

95% CI · 5.1–5.7%

+1750

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-5%
Contact-4%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast-10%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0176 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-10% (×0.90)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 4 games

Now

+850

High

+1050

Low

+460

Med

+775

Avg

+765

+850

Low +460High +1050

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.4

Proj PA

HR / PA

.021

ISO

.121

wOBA

.283

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.6

Hard%

30.9

FB%

43.1

Pull%

42.6

Soft%

23.5

GB%

43.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

39.5

FB%

47.6

Pull%

41.9

Soft%

23.3

GB%

35.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

16.0

FB%

34.8

Pull%

44.0

Soft%

24.0

GB%

56.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

39.4

FB%

50.0

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

12.1

GB%

34.4

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.9

FB%

36.4

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

34.3

GB%

51.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field mild HR boost (+8)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.400↑ vs season .25013 PA · 15d

OPS

1.338

ISO

.400

RBI

K-BB

2-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs PHI	4	2	1	3	0	1	1.500
💣 399ft · 101.8 EV · Slider
06-10	@ ATH	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	@ ATH	2	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-07	@ COL	2	1	0	0	1	0	.500
06-06	@ COL	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	vs SF	0	0	0	1	2	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball35PA	.097	.192	4.0	33.3	48	26.6
🐾CHChangeup12PA	—	.168	0.0	50.0	60	29.6
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.166	.270	7.7	30.8	54	23.3	86	21
vs RHP	—	.080	0.0	33.3	42	23.7	-25	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.177	0.0	33.3	50	12.5	86	7
vs RHP	—	.155	0.0	50.0	75	38.5	-25	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

108

🐾vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Perkins.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Confirmed0 of 1 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.192
Whiff%
26.6
HH%
33.3
BRL%
4.0
Pull%
48
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 35 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
.168
Whiff%
29.6
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
60
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .394). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 12 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP41PA	—	.057	.232	—	0
vs LHP45PA	.175	.375	.664	9.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home39PA	.143	.257	.462	3.6%	1
Away47PA	.050	.200	.461	5.9%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day35PA	.226	.452	.766	6.7%	1
Night51PA	—	.068	.248	3.1%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty26PA	.045	.136	.367	0
Runners On45PA	.131	.289	.562	1
RISP29PA	.174	.348	.669	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs27PA	.083	.250	.481	0
1 Out32PA	—	.074	.293	0
2 Outs27PA	.208	.375	.634	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.