Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+657

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

11.3%

+788

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.5%

95% CI · 3.3–3.7%

+2741

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-12%
Contact+15%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Connor Prielipp (LHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0087 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-4% (×0.96)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 10 games · 1 HR

Now

+655

High

+1165

Low

+625

Med

+885

Avg

+902

🐾+655

Low +625🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1165

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.8

Proj PA

108

HR / PA

.008

ISO

.083

wOBA

.302

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

27.3

FB%

32.3

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

9.1

GB%

45.2

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

12.5

Pull%

20.0

Soft%

30.0

GB%

75.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

30.4

FB%

39.1

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

0.0

GB%

34.8

Home

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

18.8

FB%

35.7

Pull%

18.8

Soft%

6.3

GB%

64.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

35.3

FB%

29.4

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

29.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .25024 PA · 15d

OPS

.654

ISO

.150

RBI

K-BB

4-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-11	@ NYM	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs CIN	3	1	1	2	1	0	1.333
💣 368ft · 101.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-06	vs CIN	3	2	0	0	0	0	.667
06-05	vs CIN	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-02	vs TEX	2	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-01	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
05-30	vs CHC	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlider	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball18PA	.428	.508	15.4	38.5	39	18.8
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.545	.515	20.0	50.0	50	26.1	163	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

107

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Torres.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SLSlider
Use%
32
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.508
Whiff%
18.8
HH%
38.5
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
39
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP32PA	.285	.571	.946	8.7%	2
🐾vs LHP13PA	—	.182	.432	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home23PA	.157	.368	.686	12.5%	1
🐾Away22PA	.250	.550	.914	—	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day21PA	.445	.778	1.178	5.9%	2
Night24PA	—	.190	.482	6.2%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty12PA	—	.200	.533	0
Runners On25PA	.364	.682	1.057	2
RISP14PA	.231	.385	.599	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs13PA	—	.364	.781	0
1 Out11PA	.545	.909	1.273	2
2 Outs21PA	.117	.235	.521	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-05PA	.750	1.500	2.100	1
1-02PA	—	—	—	0
0-15PA	—	.200	.400	0
0-25PA	—	—	—	0
1-25PA	—	—	—	0
2-24PA	—	—	—	0
3-28PA	.400	.600	1.100	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.