Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.9%

+815

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 79

2+ RBI

10.0%

+899

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

3.5%

95% CI · 3.3–3.7%

+2754

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Contact+16%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast-7%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0100 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+815

High

+940

Low

+460

Med

+775

Avg

+757

+815

Low +460High +940

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.0

Proj PA

HR / PA

.013

ISO

.098

wOBA

.301

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

28.8

FB%

42.0

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

7.7

GB%

40.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

16.7

FB%

20.0

Pull%

25.0

Soft%

25.0

GB%

70.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.1

Hard%

32.5

FB%

47.5

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

2.5

GB%

32.5

Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

25.0

FB%

46.2

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

7.1

GB%

46.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

33.3

FB%

37.5

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

8.3

GB%

33.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Park drag (79)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.214↓ vs season .25017 PA · 15d

OPS

.742

ISO

.215

RBI

K-BB

1-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	@ MIN	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-12	@ MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-11	@ NYM	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs CIN	3	1	1	2	1	0	1.333
💣 368ft · 101.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-06	vs CIN	3	2	0	0	0	0	.667
06-05	vs CIN	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-02	vs TEX	2	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-01	vs TEX	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball20PA	.375	.474	13.3	46.7	40	16.7
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.461	.475	16.7	58.3	50	22.2	139	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Torres.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.474
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
46.7
BRL%
13.3
Pull%
40
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 24 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP35PA	.258	.516	.859	7.7%	2
vs LHP13PA	—	.182	.432	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home23PA	.157	.368	.686	12.5%	1
🐾Away25PA	.217	.478	.798	—	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day24PA	.381	.667	1.015	5.0%	2
🐾Night24PA	—	.190	.482	6.2%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty14PA	—	.167	.453	0
Runners On25PA	.364	.682	1.057	2
RISP14PA	.231	.385	.599	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs14PA	—	.333	.718	0
1 Out13PA	.461	.769	1.077	2
2 Outs21PA	.117	.235	.521	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.