Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

4.4%

+2159

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

6.4%

+1454

RBI 1+

30.2%

+231

Hits 1+

70.9%

-244

Hits 2+

29.6%

+238

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

2.6%

95% CI · 2.4–2.8%

+3771

Fair odds

1st AB

0.5%

Through AB2

1.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-18%
Contact-20%
SP Contact-17%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0138 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-20% (×0.80)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+2155

High

+1900

Low

+795

Med

+1055

Avg

+1109

+2155

Low +795High +1900

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.8

Proj PA

394

HR / PA

.010

ISO

.096

wOBA

.318

wRC+

103

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.4

Hard%

24.8

FB%

35.4

Pull%

34.6

Soft%

17.3

GB%

41.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

8.7

Hard%

25.0

FB%

31.9

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

15.3

GB%

38.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

3.0

Hard%

24.7

FB%

36.8

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

18.1

GB%

42.3

Home

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

25.4

FB%

42.1

Pull%

36.5

Soft%

17.5

GB%

38.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

5.4

Hard%

24.2

FB%

28.9

Pull%

32.8

Soft%

17.2

GB%

44.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

1.0 🐾

DART THROW

Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (44% of career HRs)
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .29655 PA · 15d

OPS

.495

ISO

.040

RBI

K-BB

0-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	SLG
06-12	@ SF	3	0	1	0	—
06-11	@ COL	4	1	0	0	.250
06-10	@ COL	4	1	0	0	.500
06-09	@ COL	4	1	0	0	.250
06-07	vs SF	3	1	0	1	.333
06-06	vs SF	4	0	0	0	—
06-05	vs SF	3	0	0	0	—
06-04	vs ATH	4	1	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR58PA	.078	.336	0.0	26.5	53	2.7
🐾SLSlidervR35PA	.117	.298	3.2	29.0	68	21.3
🐾CHChangeupvR10PA	—	.201	0.0	—	63	7.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.230	.364	0.0	41.7	58	4.3	122	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	.078	.336	0.0	26.5	53	2.7	84	58

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.334	.393	0.0	16.7	100	8.3	122	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	.117	.298	3.2	29.0	68	21.3	84	35

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.178	0.0	16.7	75	26.9	122	18
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.201	0.0	0.0	63	7.7	84	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hoerner.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 4 of 9 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.100

Barrel %

1.2

Hard Hit %

28.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.336

xBA

.296

Brl / PA %

1.00

Max EV (mph)

105.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

100.7

Avg EV on HRs

98.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

383

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/5

Avg LA on HRs

27.8°

Brl / PA %

1.00

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.336
Whiff%
2.7
HH%
26.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
53
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.298
Whiff%
21.3
HH%
29.0
BRL%
3.2
Pull%
68
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.201
Whiff%
7.7
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .400). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP225PA	.077	.304	.620	2.1%	2
vs LHP87PA	.150	.438	.783	1.4%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home153PA	.121	.371	.704	2.9%	2
🐾Away159PA	.078	.317	.631	0.8%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day130PA	.108	.360	.714	3.5%	1
🐾Night182PA	.092	.331	.633	0.6%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty79PA	.087	.348	.702	1
Runners On120PA	.124	.381	.698	2
RISP85PA	.082	.315	.609	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs139PA	.072	.280	.568	1
1 Out101PA	.186	.523	.919	3
2 Outs72PA	.032	.222	.514	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-032PA	.100	.300	.487	1
1-034PA	.152	.455	.778	1
0-135PA	.118	.265	.408	1
2-06PA	.167	.500	.833	0
0-228PA	.115	.346	.632	0
3-08PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-239PA	.105	.263	.443	1
2-234PA	.058	.382	.706	0
3-231PA	—	.250	.766	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.