Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.1%

+612

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

11.7%

+753

RBI 1+

35.0%

+186

Hits 1+

56.4%

-129

Hits 2+

15.0%

+568

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

22.7%

95% CI · 22.2–23.2%

+341

Fair odds

1st AB

5.9%

Through AB2

11.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
Contact+12%
Statcast+11%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0421 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+610

High

+755

Low

+375

Med

+478

Avg

+520

+610

Low +375High +755

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.1

Proj PA

367

HR / PA

.044

ISO

.206

wOBA

.342

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

36.5

FB%

44.7

Pull%

45.3

Soft%

12.9

GB%

38.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

38.2

FB%

23.6

Pull%

52.7

Soft%

18.2

GB%

58.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

35.7

FB%

54.8

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

10.4

GB%

28.7

Home

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

35.6

FB%

41.1

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

14.4

GB%

36.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

37.5

FB%

48.8

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

11.3

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (50% of career HRs)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (6.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .21045 PA · 15d

OPS

.561

ISO

.083

RBI

K-BB

9-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ NYM	2	1	0	2	1	1.000
06-10	@ CHW	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ CHW	4	1	0	1	2	.250
06-07	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	vs PIT	4	2	1	0	0	.750
06-05	vs PIT	3	1	1	1	0	.667
06-04	vs TOR	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	vs TOR	3	1	0	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FCCutter16PA	.375	.374	27.3	55.6	55	41.3
SLSlider26PA	.087	.367	13.6	33.3	59	32.1
SISinker51PA	.205	.338	7.9	44.4	66	10.2
FF4-Seam Fastball98PA	.141	.319	11.5	52.7	53	33.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.461	.504	33.3	55.6	56	40.0	81	13

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.166	.519	16.7	66.7	50	36.4	76	7
vs RHP	.056	.311	12.5	25.0	63	29.8	81	20

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.257	0.0	28.6	86	9.1	76	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.231	.354	9.7	45.2	61	10.1	81	46

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.315	.364	13.0	56.5	61	22.7	76	41
vs RHP	.121	.291	10.5	50.0	47	27.9	81	66

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Riley.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 16 of 32 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.146

Barrel %

10.0

Hard Hit %

44.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.301

xBA

.210

Brl / PA %

6.10

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

106.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

403

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/9

Avg LA on HRs

28.4°

Brl / PA %

6.10

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .430). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

FCCutter2

SISinker2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP184PA	.172	.368	.651	12.1%	7
vs LHP97PA	.104	.337	.646	10.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home130PA	.125	.358	.650	10.1%	3
🐾Away151PA	.171	.357	.648	12.9%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day76PA	.100	.257	.468	11.8%	1
Night205PA	.168	.397	.719	11.3%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty91PA	.073	.305	.613	1
Runners On127PA	.180	.396	.695	4
RISP77PA	.257	.514	.813	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs91PA	.150	.325	.600	3
1 Out89PA	.174	.427	.775	3
2 Outs101PA	.128	.330	.587	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-025PA	.417	.792	1.192	3
1-017PA	.533	1.000	1.529	2
0-121PA	.150	.350	.588	0
2-07PA	—	.429	.857	0
0-225PA	—	.083	.163	0
3-04PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
1-252PA	.138	.216	.312	2
2-247PA	.131	.261	.389	1
3-241PA	.077	.231	.694	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.