Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.9%

+1023

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

8.9%

+1024

RBI 1+

32.5%

+208

Hits 1+

56.8%

-131

Hits 2+

15.3%

+555

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.6%

95% CI · 13.2–14.0%

+635

Fair odds

1st AB

2.7%

Through AB2

5.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Contact-2%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+12%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0417 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+12% (×1.12)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+670

High

+1205

Low

+400

Med

+702

Avg

+719

+670

Low +400High +1205

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.2

Proj PA

266

HR / PA

.050

ISO

.221

wOBA

.343

wRC+

116

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

34.9

FB%

45.7

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

13.4

GB%

37.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

39.2

FB%

28.4

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

14.9

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

9.4

Hard%

32.9

FB%

53.8

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

12.7

GB%

31.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

34.7

FB%

40.7

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

14.4

GB%

36.4

Away

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

35.1

FB%

50.9

Pull%

35.1

Soft%

12.3

GB%

37.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (50% of career HRs)
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (6.4%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.238↑ vs season .21249 PA · 15d

OPS

.680

ISO

.095

RBI

K-BB

12-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SF	5	3	1	0	1	.600
06-16	vs SF	4	1	0	0	2	.500
06-14	@ NYM	3	0	0	1	0	—
06-13	@ NYM	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-12	@ NYM	2	1	0	2	1	1.000
06-10	@ CHW	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ CHW	4	1	0	1	2	.250
06-07	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR49PA	.219	.352	9.1	42.4	64	9.5
🐾CUCurveballvR5PA	—	.210	0.0	40.0	80	25.0
🐾CHChangeup33PA	.100	.239	5.0	47.4	70	45.2
🐾FCCuttervR14PA	.428	.462	33.3	55.6	56	41.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.225	0.0	28.6	86	13.0	91	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.219	.352	9.1	42.4	64	9.5	76	49

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.135	0.0	0.0	67	33.3	91	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.210	0.0	40.0	80	25.0	76	5

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.077	.223	5.9	41.2	77	50.0	91	29
vs RHP	no sample

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.428	.462	33.3	55.6	56	41.9	76	14

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

100

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Riley.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected0 of 32 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 16 of 32 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.144

Barrel %

10.4

Hard Hit %

45.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.302

xBA

.212

Brl / PA %

6.40

Max EV (mph)

111.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

106.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

403

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/9

Avg LA on HRs

28.4°

Brl / PA %

6.40

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.352
Whiff%
9.5
HH%
42.4
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
64
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.210
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
40.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80
CHChangeup
Use%
19
xwOBA
.239
Whiff%
45.2
HH%
47.4
BRL%
5.0
Pull%
70
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 33 PA this season.

Career vs Landen Roupp (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .430). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

FCCutter2

SISinker2

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP193PA	.163	.355	.630	11.6%	7
vs LHP105PA	.108	.355	.679	10.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home139PA	.124	.372	.674	9.7%	3
Away159PA	.162	.338	.621	13.2%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day84PA	.091	.234	.436	10.7%	1
🐾Night214PA	.165	.404	.731	11.6%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty95PA	.070	.291	.586	1
Runners On135PA	.170	.390	.694	4
RISP83PA	.240	.493	.794	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs98PA	.150	.345	.631	3
1 Out93PA	.165	.418	.762	3
2 Outs107PA	.121	.313	.565	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.