Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

13.9%

+620

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

11.6%

+759

RBI 1+

34.9%

+186

Hits 1+

62.1%

-164

Hits 2+

20.0%

+401

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.7%

95% CI · 9.3–10.0%

+934

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

4.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-2%
Contact-22%
SP Contact+15%
Statcast-7%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0273 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-22% (×0.78)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games · 1 HR

Now

+620

High

+875

Low

+490

Med

+735

Avg

+714

🐾+620

Low +490🐾 HR money zoneHigh +875

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.8

Proj PA

244

HR / PA

.024

ISO

.136

wOBA

.322

wRC+

102

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.8

Hard%

19.4

FB%

40.3

Pull%

40.3

Soft%

20.9

GB%

38.8

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

18.8

FB%

43.8

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

25.0

GB%

37.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

4.4

Hard%

19.5

FB%

39.8

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

20.4

GB%

38.9

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

16.4

FB%

42.6

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

14.8

GB%

36.1

Away

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

22.1

FB%

38.2

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

26.5

GB%

41.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (41% of career HRs)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.216↓ vs season .24142 PA · 15d

OPS

.661

ISO

.135

RBI

K-BB

11-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs STL	4	0	0	2	—
06-11	@ DET	4	1	0	0	.250
06-09	@ DET	2	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs KC	2	1	0	0	1.000
06-06	vs KC	3	0	0	0	—
06-04	vs KC	3	1	0	1	.333
06-03	vs CHW	3	0	1	2	—
06-02	vs CHW	2	1	1	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL11PA	.375	.510	14.3	28.6	50	—
🐾SLSlider18PA	.071	.236	0.0	—	40	52.3
🐾CUCurveballvL5PA	—	.089	0.0	—	50	28.6
🐾CHChangeup20PA	.050	.145	6.7	14.3	67	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.375	.510	14.3	28.6	50	0.0	16	11
vs RHP	.129	.348	5.5	38.2	61	12.8	128	68

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.212	0.0	0.0	25	53.8	128	15

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.089	0.0	0.0	50	28.6	16	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.409	11.1	44.4	78	36.4	128	15

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.048	.110	6.7	13.3	67	34.7	128	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

107

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Larnach.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 12 of 29 career HRs (41%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.125

Barrel %

5.4

Hard Hit %

29.5

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.318

xBA

.241

Brl / PA %

3.60

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.9

Avg EV on HRs

104.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

384

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

3.60

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.510
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
28.6
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
22
xwOBA
.236
Whiff%
52.3
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
40
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.089
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50

Career vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.1	10.7	47.9	48	.438	9.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.3	14.9	43.5	62	.293	28.0
CUCurveball	15.8	7.7	33.3	54	.208	19.2
CHChangeup	15.0	4.8	32.5	67	.386	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	9.5	47.6	49	.405	9.1	82

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	26.0	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	9.1	36.4	55	.200	21.4	28

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	31.0	67	.386	15.0	49

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .431). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CUCurveball1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP175PA	.121	.396	.779	6.7%	2
🐾vs LHP26PA	.130	.217	.409	5.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home98PA	.126	.392	.800	8.7%	1
Away103PA	.118	.355	.666	4.3%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day103PA	.091	.330	.680	5.1%	1
Night98PA	.155	.417	.784	8.3%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.137	.370	.726	1
Runners On75PA	.125	.391	.764	2
RISP43PA	.115	.429	.871	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs65PA	.070	.368	.753	0
1 Out73PA	.100	.317	.673	0
2 Outs63PA	.200	.436	.769	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-021PA	.381	.762	1.143	1
1-07PA	—	.286	.571	0
0-122PA	.182	.455	.727	1
2-07PA	—	.571	1.143	0
0-224PA	.083	.333	.583	0
3-06PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-227PA	.040	.160	.345	0
2-224PA	—	.087	.212	0
3-237PA	.143	.333	.874	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.