Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.9%

+674

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #1Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.1%

+800

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

63.3%

-173

Hits 2+

21.1%

+373

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.2%

95% CI · 10.9–11.6%

+791

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Lineup+3%
Contact-3%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Big bats hitting behind

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0272 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+565

High

+1190

Low

+440

Med

+718

Avg

+769

+565

Low +440High +1190

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.1

Proj PA

177

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.153

wOBA

.328

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.8

Hard%

25.5

FB%

44.3

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

18.6

GB%

36.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

26.1

FB%

45.5

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

30.4

GB%

31.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

25.4

FB%

44.2

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

17.1

GB%

37.0

Home

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

21.6

FB%

45.4

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

11.3

GB%

37.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

29.0

FB%

43.4

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

25.2

GB%

35.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (41% of career HRs)
94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.258↑ vs season .24834 PA · 15d

OPS

.711

ISO

.129

RBI

K-BB

7-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	6	4	1	1	0	0	1.167
💣 425ft · 108.8 EV · 4-Seamer
06-14	vs STL	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-13	vs STL	1	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-12	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-11	@ DET	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ DET	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	vs KC	2	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-06	vs KC	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball79PA	.200	.396	9.1	37.1	58	12.6
🐾SLSlider20PA	.063	.214	0.0	—	50	50.0
🐾CHChangeup23PA	.046	.194	5.9	18.8	71	34.7
🐾FCCutter11PA	.375	.353	11.1	25.0	56	5.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.334	.541	12.5	25.0	43	0.0	33	12
vs RHP	.169	.373	8.6	39.7	60	11.8	129	71

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.071	.218	0.0	0.0	43	50.0	129	18

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.044	.164	5.9	17.6	71	34.6	129	24

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.428	.389	14.3	28.6	71	0.0	129	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Larnach.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed3 of 29 HRs · 10%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 12 of 29 career HRs (41%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.132

Barrel %

6.4

Hard Hit %

30.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.327

xBA

.248

Brl / PA %

4.20

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.9

Avg EV on HRs

104.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

384

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

25.0°

Brl / PA %

4.20

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.396
Whiff%
12.6
HH%
37.1
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
58
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.214
Whiff%
50.0
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 20 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.194
Whiff%
34.7
HH%
18.8
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
71
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.

Career vs Jack Leiter

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .431). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CUCurveball1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 27 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP185PA	.133	.418	.807	7.8%	3
vs LHP27PA	.125	.250	.472	4.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home103PA	.121	.386	.794	9.5%	1
🐾Away109PA	.141	.404	.734	5.3%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day108PA	.087	.326	.678	4.9%	1
Night104PA	.178	.467	.852	10.3%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty89PA	.133	.373	.733	1
Runners On79PA	.119	.403	.795	2
RISP45PA	.108	.432	.876	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs73PA	.109	.422	.819	1
1 Out76PA	.095	.333	.701	0
2 Outs63PA	.200	.436	.769	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.