Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.4%

+774

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane McClanahan (LHP) (0.42 HR/9) · park 120

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.3%

+871

RBI 1+

33.7%

+197

Hits 1+

63.2%

-171

Hits 2+

21.0%

+377

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.1%

95% CI · 12.8–13.5%

+661

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

5.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+20%
vs SP-22%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-6%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Shane McClanahan (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 120)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0413 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-22% (×0.78) · blended_proj

Park+20% (×1.20)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-6% (×0.94)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+775

High

+1425

Low

+390

Med

+578

Avg

+661

+775

Low +390High +1425

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.6

Proj PA

370

HR / PA

.039

ISO

.199

wOBA

.357

wRC+

128

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.5

Hard%

37.1

FB%

40.8

Pull%

44.7

Soft%

16.8

GB%

37.8

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

46.2

FB%

39.2

Pull%

51.9

Soft%

17.3

GB%

33.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

33.8

FB%

41.4

Pull%

42.1

Soft%

16.6

GB%

39.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.1

Hard%

39.8

FB%

44.3

Pull%

46.6

Soft%

17.0

GB%

37.5

Away

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

34.9

FB%

38.0

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

16.5

GB%

38.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is a hitter's haven (+20 for LHB)
Shane McClanahan stingy: only 0.42 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (68% of career HRs)
Park boost (120)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.42 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250→ vs season .24756 PA · 15d

OPS

.735

ISO

.146

RBI

K-BB

16-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs TB	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-15	vs TB	4	2	1	3	0	1	1.250
💣 384ft · 102.1 EV · Changeup
06-14	@ CHW	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-13	@ CHW	3	1	0	2	1	1	.333
06-12	@ CHW	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-11	@ PIT	5	1	0	2	0	3	.200
06-10	@ PIT	4	2	0	1	0	2	.750
06-09	@ PIT	3	0	0	1	2	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL28PA	.091	.359	6.7	33.3	53	26.8
🐾CHChangeupvL6PA	—	.009	0.0	—	50	41.7
🐾SLSlidervL16PA	.154	.361	7.7	30.8	62	28.1
🐾CUCurveball18PA	.067	.408	0.0	27.3	100	22.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.091	.359	6.7	33.3	53	26.8	112	28
vs RHP	.246	.382	13.7	43.1	55	15.2	103	70

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.009	0.0	0.0	50	41.7	112	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.113	.234	2.9	32.4	71	31.8	103	48

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.154	.361	7.7	30.8	62	28.1	112	16
vs RHP	.150	.247	10.0	40.0	70	28.3	103	24

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.372	0.0	16.7	100	26.3	103	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

120

vs RHB

119

vs SHB

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Tucker.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected0 of 44 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 30 of 44 career HRs (68%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.149

Barrel %

5.6

Hard Hit %

38.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.324

xBA

.247

Brl / PA %

3.70

Max EV (mph)

107.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.8

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/5

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

3.70

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane McClanahan · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
36
xwOBA
.359
Whiff%
26.8
HH%
33.3
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
53
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.009
Whiff%
41.7
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.361
Whiff%
28.1
HH%
30.8
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
62

Career vs Shane McClanahan (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.286AVG · small sample (7 PA)

OPS

.715

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Shane McClanahan (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.4	14.1	50.0	52	.413	18.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.3	1.8	35.3	66	.201	26.2
SLSlider	20.7	10.9	40.0	67	.307	23.6
CUCurveball	13.6	4.8	31.6	52	.263	20.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball36% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	28.6	43	.317	28.6	26
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	15.8	54.4	54	.434	16.4	80

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	75.0	50	.270	20.0	6
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	1.9	32.7	67	.197	28.2	92

SLSlider21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.3	33.3	58	.192	39.1	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.8	44.1	71	.355	21.1	45

CUCurveball14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	80.0	60	.526	—	6
vs RHB	0.0	18.8	50	.217	25.0	25

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .414). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAD)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Dodger Stadium (330/395/330 ft) · elev 512ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 35 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP220PA	.130	.375	.711	6.5%	5
🐾vs LHP80PA	.197	.424	.762	5.5%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home138PA	.124	.322	.619	7.4%	2
Away162PA	.168	.445	.815	5.3%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day86PA	.192	.534	.976	8.2%	1
Night214PA	.130	.330	.624	5.4%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.122	.354	.630	2
Runners On152PA	.150	.408	.803	3
RISP92PA	.080	.320	.668	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs104PA	.247	.472	.799	4
1 Out102PA	.069	.299	.623	0
2 Outs94PA	.122	.390	.752	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Wed.