Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

18.4%

+443

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Bradish (RHP) (1.35 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

14.1%

+608

RBI 1+

37.2%

+169

Hits 1+

50.3%

-101

Hits 2+

10.6%

+846

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

80wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

15wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

32.0%

95% CI · 31.5–32.6%

+212

Fair odds

1st AB

8.6%

Through AB2

16.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
vs SP-10%
Contact+16%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+20%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Bradish (RHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0607 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+20% (×1.20)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.5

Proj PA

270

HR / PA

.065

ISO

.267

wOBA

.349

wRC+

127

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.9

Hard%

28.3

FB%

60.4

Pull%

56.6

Soft%

15.1

GB%

28.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

22.6

FB%

51.6

Pull%

64.5

Soft%

12.9

GB%

32.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

30.7

FB%

64.0

Pull%

53.3

Soft%

16.0

GB%

26.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

24.5

FB%

57.1

Pull%

59.2

Soft%

14.3

GB%

34.7

Away

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

31.6

FB%

63.2

Pull%

54.4

Soft%

15.8

GB%

22.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (52% of career HRs)
Elite barrel% (12.3)
High barrels/PA (7.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .1804 PA · 15d

OPS

.833

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs BAL	3	1	2	1	0	.333
05-13	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	2	—
05-12	@ HOU	4	2	0	1	1	.500
05-11	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	1	—
05-10	@ CHW	3	0	0	1	2	—
05-09	@ CHW	4	0	0	0	2	—
05-08	@ CHW	5	0	0	0	1	—
05-06	vs ATL	4	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR9PA	.715	.672	42.9	71.4	86	10.5
🐾SLSlidervR17PA	—	.324	11.1	33.3	67	24.2
🐾CUCurveballvR9PA	—	.089	0.0	14.3	86	28.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR48PA	.190	.259	14.3	33.3	48	31.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.715	.672	42.9	71.4	86	10.5	80	9

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.428	.198	25.0	25.0	100	42.1	15	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.324	11.1	33.3	67	24.2	80	17

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.227	0.0	0.0	100	14.3	15	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.089	0.0	14.3	86	28.0	80	9

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.048	.190	6.7	33.3	53	32.1	15	24
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.190	.259	14.3	33.3	48	31.0	80	48

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Raleigh.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Projected48 of 92 HRs · 52%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 48 of 92 career HRs (52%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.156

Barrel %

12.3

Hard Hit %

31.1

xwOBA

.289

xBA

.180

Brl / PA %

7.20

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Avg EV on HRs

107.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/7

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

7.20

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Bradish · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.672
Whiff%
10.5
HH%
71.4
BRL%
42.9
Pull%
86
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.324
Whiff%
24.2
HH%
33.3
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
67
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.089
Whiff%
28.0
HH%
14.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
86

Career vs Kyle Bradish (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Kyle Bradish (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	32.1	10.4	36.1	55	.302	21.7
SLSlider	26.9	10.3	33.3	76	.339	18.9
CUCurveball	22.0	13.2	45.9	76	.261	21.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	18.9	5.6	36.0	48	.400	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.1	40.9	57	.305	22.9	74
vs RHB	12.1	30.3	52	.298	19.0	45

SLSlider27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	7.1	35.7	89	.299	22.4	52
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.3	30.0	63	.380	16.4	44

CUCurveball22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.7	42.9	82	.245	21.0	42
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	60	.297	19.4	19

FF4-Seam Fastball19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.4	31.1	49	.377	23.8	56
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	77.8	44	.514	0.0	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .546). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

SISinker1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP133PA	.187	.356	.619	14.6%	6
vs LHP52PA	.065	.217	.429	9.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home91PA	.175	.363	.638	11.3%	4
Away94PA	.131	.274	.497	14.5%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day66PA	.153	.356	.629	14.6%	2
🐾Night119PA	.152	.295	.530	12.2%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty72PA	.226	.452	.785	4
Runners On86PA	.103	.244	.442	2
RISP40PA	.029	.200	.425	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs56PA	.140	.280	.512	2
1 Out73PA	.254	.448	.681	5
2 Outs56PA	.021	.170	.456	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Wed.