Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.2%

+603

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.8%

+745

RBI 1+

35.1%

+185

Hits 1+

52.2%

-109

Hits 2+

11.8%

+745

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

81wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

24wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

28.0%

95% CI · 27.5–28.5%

+257

Fair odds

1st AB

8.1%

Through AB2

15.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
Contact+12%
SP Contact-5%
Statcast+21%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0602 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+21% (×1.21)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-5% (×0.95)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+280

High

+1300

Low

+260

Med

+530

Avg

+585

+280

Low +260High +1300

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.4

Proj PA

243

HR / PA

.067

ISO

.274

wOBA

.348

wRC+

130

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

31.2

FB%

58.4

Pull%

56.5

Soft%

15.6

GB%

26.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

23.3

FB%

44.2

Pull%

62.8

Soft%

11.6

GB%

34.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.3

Hard%

34.2

FB%

64.0

Pull%

54.1

Soft%

17.1

GB%

22.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

25.4

FB%

54.9

Pull%

59.2

Soft%

16.9

GB%

31.0

Away

HR/FB

7.8

Hard%

36.1

FB%

61.4

Pull%

54.2

Soft%

14.5

GB%

21.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (52% of career HRs)
Elite barrel% (12.5)
High barrels/PA (7.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .1898 PA · 15d

OPS

.833

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

0-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs BAL	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-16	vs BAL	3	1	2	1	0	.333
05-13	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	2	—
05-12	@ HOU	4	2	0	1	1	.500
05-11	@ HOU	4	0	0	0	1	—
05-10	@ CHW	3	0	0	1	2	—
05-09	@ CHW	4	0	0	0	2	—
05-08	@ CHW	5	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball70PA	.115	.252	12.5	29.7	53	33.7
🐾CUCurveball20PA	.150	.196	0.0	15.4	91	28.2
🐾FCCutter17PA	.214	.327	9.1	40.0	64	30.9
🐾CHChangeup29PA	.143	.375	8.3	30.4	83	30.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.048	.190	6.7	33.3	53	32.1	24	24
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.174	.280	16.0	36.0	52	30.2	81	52

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.227	0.0	0.0	100	14.3	24	6
vs RHP	—	.089	0.0	14.3	86	28.0	81	9

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.200	.346	10.0	40.0	60	32.1	81	18

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.291	0.0	12.5	88	28.6	24	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.210	.427	12.5	37.5	81	30.2	81	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Raleigh.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed28 of 92 HRs · 30%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 48 of 92 career HRs (52%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.149

Barrel %

12.5

Hard Hit %

31.3

xwOBA

.300

xBA

.189

Brl / PA %

7.40

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Avg EV on HRs

107.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

390

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/7

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

7.40

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.252
Whiff%
33.7
HH%
29.7
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
53
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 70 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.196
Whiff%
28.2
HH%
15.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
91
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 20 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.327
Whiff%
30.9
HH%
40.0
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
64

Career vs Shane Baz

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .546). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

SLSlider1

SISinker1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP137PA	.181	.355	.625	14.9%	6
vs LHP52PA	.065	.217	.429	8.8%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home95PA	.168	.361	.645	11.9%	4
Away94PA	.131	.274	.497	14.5%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day66PA	.153	.356	.629	14.6%	2
Night123PA	.148	.296	.540	12.5%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty74PA	.219	.453	.791	4
Runners On87PA	.103	.244	.451	2
RISP40PA	.029	.200	.425	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs57PA	.138	.275	.503	2
1 Out75PA	.246	.449	.689	5
2 Outs57PA	.021	.170	.468	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.