Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.8%

+923

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

9.4%

+966

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.6%

95% CI · 5.3–5.9%

+1684

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-34%
Contact-14%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-16%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0206 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-14% (×0.86)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 9 games

Now

+920

High

+1530

Low

+795

Med

+895

Avg

+1048

+920

Low +795High +1530

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.5

Proj PA

203

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.122

wOBA

.278

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

2.4

Hard%

37.2

FB%

30.4

Pull%

49.6

Soft%

21.9

GB%

53.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

34.4

FB%

31.7

Pull%

39.1

Soft%

21.9

GB%

54.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

4.8

Hard%

39.7

FB%

29.2

Pull%

58.9

Soft%

21.9

GB%

52.8

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

41.1

FB%

26.8

Pull%

54.8

Soft%

21.9

GB%

56.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

32.8

FB%

34.4

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

21.9

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Hot streak: .763 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (127)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.294↑ vs season .25638 PA · 15d

OPS

.763

ISO

.118

RBI

K-BB

3-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-12	@ LAA	4	1	0	1	.250
06-10	vs BOS	4	4	0	0	1.500
06-09	vs BOS	3	2	1	0	1.000
06-08	vs BOS	3	1	0	1	.333
06-06	@ MIA	2	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ MIA	5	0	0	0	—
06-03	vs DET	3	1	0	0	.333
06-01	vs DET	3	1	2	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR25PA	.166	.349	9.1	22.7	73	2.1
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR31PA	.108	.289	4.2	66.7	50	7.7
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.044	.321	4.5	50.0	46	3.0	68	26
vs RHPTONIGHT	.166	.349	9.1	22.7	73	2.1	102	25

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.238	.260	5.9	52.9	53	8.3	68	22
vs RHPTONIGHT	.108	.289	4.2	66.7	50	7.7	102	31

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Fortes.

Season Statcast

ISO

.084

Barrel %

1.5

Hard Hit %

40.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.286

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

1.20

Max EV (mph)

108.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Avg EV on HRs

106.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

397

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/2

Avg LA on HRs

26.5°

Brl / PA %

1.20

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.349
Whiff%
2.1
HH%
22.7
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
73
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.289
Whiff%
7.7
HH%
66.7
BRL%
4.2
Pull%
50

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .330). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP88PA	.095	.393	.723	3.8%	1
vs LHP84PA	.066	.303	.592	2.9%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home85PA	.088	.338	.624	2.6%	0
🐾Away87PA	.075	.363	.696	4.2%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day79PA	.070	.394	.774	5.2%	0
🐾Night93PA	.090	.315	.565	1.4%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty58PA	.037	.296	.606
Runners On71PA	.062	.328	.642
RISP45PA	.073	.293	.543

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs65PA	.113	.371	.663	1
1 Out51PA	.045	.318	.658	0
2 Outs56PA	.074	.352	.656	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-026PA	.167	.500	.885	0
1-020PA	.316	.737	1.187	2
0-117PA	.062	.312	.548	0
2-04PA	—	—	—	0
0-219PA	—	.167	.377	0
3-04PA	—	—	.750	0
1-221PA	—	.300	.633	0
2-215PA	—	.067	.133	0
3-219PA	—	.294	.663	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.