Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
10.8%
+828
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Peter Lambert (RHP) (0.79 HR/9) · park 115
Batting #8Projected lineup
2+ RBI
9.9%
+908
RBI 1+
33.4%
+200
Hits 1+
63.5%
-174
Hits 2+
21.3%
+369
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
9.7%
95% CI · 9.3–10.0%
+934
Fair odds
1st AB
2.7%
Through AB2
5.3%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park+15%
vs SP+10%
Contact-17%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast-3%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Peter Lambert (RHP)
·HR-friendly park (factor 115)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0263 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj
Park+15% (×1.15)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)
SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)
Discipline+1% (×1.01)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games
Now
+830
High
+1205
Low
+600
Med
+738
Avg
+801
+830
Low +600High +1205
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-16 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
4.7
Proj PA
160
HR / PA
.029
ISO
.160
wOBA
.321
wRC+
102
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG
Season
HR/FB
5.8
Hard%
30.2
FB%
46.3
Pull%
38.9
Soft%
21.5
GB%
40.3
vs LHP
HR/FB
4.3
Hard%
34.5
FB%
41.8
Pull%
47.3
Soft%
20.0
GB%
40.0
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
6.5
Hard%
27.7
FB%
48.9
Pull%
34.0
Soft%
22.3
GB%
40.4
Home
HR/FB
11.1
Hard%
34.3
FB%
53.7
Pull%
34.3
Soft%
20.9
GB%
40.3
🐾Away
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
26.8
FB%
40.2
Pull%
42.7
Soft%
22.0
GB%
40.2
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
🏟Daikin Park is a hitter's haven (+15 for RHB)
🛡Peter Lambert stingy: only 0.79 HR/9
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (53% of career HRs)
·Park boost (115)
·High barrels/PA (4.6%)
·Pitcher suppresses HR (0.79 HR/9)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.167↓ vs season .24925 PA · 15d
OPS
.452
ISO
.125
HR
0
RBI
2
K-BB
1-0
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-13
@ CLE
5
1
0
0
0
0
.200
06-11
vs MIN
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-10
vs MIN
2
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-09
vs MIN
3
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-07
vs SEA
2
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-06
vs SEA
3
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-05
vs SEA
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-03
@ TB
4
1
0
0
0
1
.250
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR36PA
—
.225
9.1
40.9
36
26.2
🐾CHChangeupvR5PA
—
.232
0.0
25.0
75
25.0
🐾SLSlidervR31PA
.225
.310
11.1
29.6
48
16.7
🐾FCCuttervR11PA
.375
.434
14.3
14.3
71
15.8
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.133
.425
7.1
42.9
21
0.0
129
20
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.225
9.1
40.9
36
26.2
28
36
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.200
.251
0.0
12.5
81
13.9
129
18
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.232
0.0
25.0
75
25.0
28
5
SLSlider
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
—
.375
0.0
75.0
75
14.3
129
5
vs RHPTONIGHT
.225
.310
11.1
29.6
48
16.7
28
31
FCCutter
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.200
.538
20.0
60.0
40
0.0
129
7
vs RHPTONIGHT
.375
.434
14.3
14.3
71
15.8
28
11
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
89
🐾vs RHB
115
vs SHB
102
Daikin Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vierling.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #8Projected0 of 15 HRs · 0%
🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 8 of 15 career HRs (53%).
Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Peter Lambert · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.225
Whiff%
26.2
HH%
40.9
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
36
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 36 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.232
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.310
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
29.6
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
48
Career vs Peter Lambert (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
1.000AVG · small sample (1 PA)
OPS
4.000
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
Peter Lambert (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball
29.5
19.3
47.2
40
.378
18.2
CHChangeup
21.9
0.0
26.7
77
.263
20.8
SLSlider
18.6
6.5
40.0
52
.226
11.3
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
10.4
0.0
45.5
55
.288
31.6
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball30% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
10.3
37.9
48
.296
20.0
47
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT
28.6
57.1
32
.478
15.6
36
CHChangeup22% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
0.0
19.0
76
.303
18.4
39
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
44.4
78
.168
25.0
16
SLSlider19% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
7.1
50.0
50
.223
16.7
22
vs RHB
5.9
35.3
53
.231
3.3
18
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
0.0
57.1
57
.319
34.5
22
vs RHB
0.0
25.0
50
.197
22.2
7
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .462). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (HOU)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Daikin Park (315/409/326 ft) · elev 50ft
5 HRs this season
vs RHP 4vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SL🐾Slider2
SISinker1
FCCutter1
CHChangeup1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
8
games since last HR
20
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP123PA
.113
.278
.481
6.9%
3
vs LHP73PA
.180
.459
.829
4.9%
1
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Home90PA
.175
.363
.619
5.6%
4
🐾Away106PA
.104
.323
.597
6.5%
0
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Day76PA
.132
.397
.713
4.3%
2
Night120PA
.139
.306
.539
7.5%
2
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty56PA
.148
.352
.584
1
Runners On91PA
.114
.304
.557
1
RISP50PA
.146
.366
.646
0
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs67PA
.164
.377
.661
2
1 Out74PA
.031
.169
.358
0
2 Outs55PA
.240
.520
.865
2
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Wed.
