Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
14.5%
+588
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110
2+ RBI
12.0%
+733
RBI 1+
35.3%
+184
Hits 1+
58.7%
-142
Hits 2+
16.9%
+493
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter14.1%
95% CI · 13.7–14.5%
+609
Fair odds
1st AB
3.5%
Through AB2
7.2%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+10%
- Contact-15%
- Statcast+15%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
- ·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
- ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0337 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park+10% (×1.10)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+15% (×1.15)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 13 games · 2 HR
Now
+590
High
+1075
Low
+425
Med
+630
Avg
+685
🐾🐾+590
Low +425🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1075
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100
Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+6302026-06-07vs STLfair odds
AwayBat 8thoff RHPSinker
🐾+7302026-05-25vs NYMfair odds
Awayoff RHPSinker
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
9.7
Proj PA
237
HR / PA
.041
ISO
.188
wOBA
.332
wRC+
106
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
9.3
Hard%
38.3
FB%
45.0
Pull%
31.7
Soft%
12.5
GB%
30.8
vs LHP
HR/FB
0.0
Hard%
17.4
FB%
47.8
Pull%
47.8
Soft%
8.7
GB%
17.4
vs RHP
HR/FB
11.6
Hard%
43.3
FB%
44.3
Pull%
27.8
Soft%
13.4
GB%
34.0
🐾Home
HR/FB
3.8
Hard%
29.1
FB%
47.3
Pull%
38.2
Soft%
12.7
GB%
30.9
Away
HR/FB
14.3
Hard%
46.2
FB%
43.1
Pull%
26.2
Soft%
12.3
GB%
30.8
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (50% of career HRs)
- Park boost (110)
- High barrels/PA (6.6%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.233↑ vs season .22233 PA · 15d
OPS
.670
ISO
.134
HR
1
RBI
2
K-BB
10-3
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 | vs ARI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 06-12 | vs ARI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 06-10 | @ SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-09 | @ SD | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .500 |
| 06-08 | @ SD | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .333 |
| 06-07 | @ STL | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.750 |
| 💣 373ft · 103.3 EV · Sinker | ||||||||
| 06-05 | @ STL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 |
| 06-03 | vs KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI37PA | .452 | .569 | 25.0 | 59.3 | 46 | 17.3 |
| FF58PA | .060 | .353 | 13.5 | 45.7 | 41 | 27.1 |
| FC15PA | — | .300 | 0.0 | 36.4 | 50 | 24.1 |
| CH19PA | — | .285 | 15.4 | 30.0 | 62 | 21.6 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .451 | .558 | 22.2 | 55.6 | 44 | 17.0 | 79 | 35 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .300 | .292 | 16.7 | 33.3 | 50 | 21.4 | 62 | 10 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .066 | .361 | 12.9 | 51.6 | 39 | 27.6 | 79 | 54 |
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .154 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75 | 18.2 | 62 | 8 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | — | .429 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 38 | 28.6 | 79 | 9 |
CHChangeup
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | .111 | .320 | 11.1 | 33.3 | 67 | 0.0 | 62 | 10 |
| vs RHP | — | .264 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 50 | 40.9 | 79 | 12 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
98
🐾vs RHB
110
vs SHB
104
Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Stephenson.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 5 of 10 career HRs (50%).
1
·
2
·
5
3
🐾
3
4
🐾
1
5
·
6
·
1
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3#4
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.128
Barrel %
10.8
Hard Hit %
43.3
Pull % (HRs)
75
xwOBA
.321
xBA
.222
Brl / PA %
6.60
Max EV (mph)
108.5
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
111.8
Avg EV on HRs
104.4
Avg HR Distance (ft)
403
HRs in sample
4
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/4
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/4
Avg LA on HRs
29.5°
Brl / PA %
6.60
Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .434). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft
4 HRs this season
vs RHP 3vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SI🐾Sinker2
FF4-Seam Fastball1
SLSlider1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
5
games since last HR
15
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 8.0 games · 26 PA (1 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP154PA | .146 | .365 | .657 | 11.8% | 5 |
| vs LHP43PA | .059 | .206 | .532 | 11.1% | 0 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home89PA | .076 | .215 | .451 | 10.5% | 1 |
| Away108PA | .174 | .435 | .787 | 12.5% | 4 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day67PA | .197 | .410 | .679 | 14.9% | 3 |
| 🐾Night130PA | .091 | .291 | .606 | 9.8% | 2 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty62PA | .089 | .232 | .458 | 1 |
| Runners On92PA | .154 | .385 | .711 | 3 |
| RISP50PA | .175 | .425 | .785 | 2 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs80PA | .235 | .544 | .944 | 4 |
| 1 Out64PA | .034 | .153 | .325 | 0 |
| 2 Outs53PA | .091 | .250 | .552 | 1 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.