Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

7.9%

+1172

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 114

2+ RBI

8.3%

+1101

RBI 1+

31.9%

+213

Hits 1+

64.5%

-182

Hits 2+

22.3%

+348

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

109wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

71wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

1.9%

95% CI · 1.8–2.1%

+5154

Fair odds

1st AB

0.4%

Through AB2

0.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
Wind+4%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact-31%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·11 mph wind out to OF
·89F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0069 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind+4% (×1.04)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-31% (×0.69)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 7 games

Now

+2860

High

+1700

Low

+1110

Med

+1190

Avg

+1276

+2860

Low +1110High +1700

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.5

Proj PA

221

HR / PA

.002

ISO

.065

wOBA

.289

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

16.1

FB%

21.9

Pull%

29.5

Soft%

19.6

GB%

60.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

12.1

FB%

25.8

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

18.2

GB%

61.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

17.7

FB%

20.3

Pull%

27.8

Soft%

20.3

GB%

59.5

Home

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

16.4

FB%

24.6

Pull%

29.5

Soft%

23.0

GB%

56.1

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

15.7

FB%

18.8

Pull%

29.4

Soft%

15.7

GB%

64.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Hot streak: .874 OPS over last 15 days
89°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (114)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.395↑ vs season .25541 PA · 15d

OPS

.874

ISO

.079

RBI

K-BB

5-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	vs MIA	4	2	1	0	0	.500
06-13	vs MIA	4	2	0	0	1	.500
06-12	vs MIA	2	0	0	1	0	—
06-11	vs LAD	4	1	1	0	1	.500
06-10	vs LAD	4	3	0	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs LAD	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ ATL	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-06	@ ATL	1	1	0	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR10PA	—	.165	25.0	50	9.1
🐾FCCuttervR10PA	—	.192	—	25	4.2
🐾CHChangeupvR21PA	—	.252	16.7	56	17.9
🐾SLSlidervR15PA	—	.319	46.2	39	9.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.178	0.0	40.0	20	18.8	71	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.165	0.0	25.0	50	9.1	109	10

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.216	0.0	0.0	75	0.0	71	4
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.192	0.0	0.0	25	4.2	109	10

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.382	0.0	14.3	57	23.5	71	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.252	0.0	16.7	56	17.9	109	21

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.215	0.0	25.0	50	22.2	71	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.319	0.0	46.2	39	9.7	109	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

114

🐾vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Mangum.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.060

Barrel %

0.9

Hard Hit %

25.9

xwOBA

.283

xBA

.255

Brl / PA %

0.70

Max EV (mph)

104.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.5

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

0.70

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.165
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.192
Whiff%
4.2
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
25
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 10 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.252
Whiff%
17.9
HH%
16.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
56
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.

Career vs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .400). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP113PA	.071	.384	.757	1.2%	1
vs LHP42PA	.025	.300	.610	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home86PA	.080	.440	.870	1.5%	1
🐾Away69PA	.032	.266	.524	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day81PA	.072	.386	.774	1.7%	1
🐾Night74PA	.043	.333	.652	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty52PA	.104	.417	.782	1
Runners On77PA	.029	.338	.689	0
RISP49PA	.023	.256	.548	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs45PA	.052	.368	.749	0
1 Out61PA	.091	.509	.968	1
2 Outs49PA	.022	.174	.378	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.