Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.3%

+598

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 98

2+ RBI

11.9%

+742

RBI 1+

35.2%

+184

Hits 1+

67.0%

-203

Hits 2+

25.0%

+301

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.8%

95% CI · 19.3–20.2%

+406

Fair odds

1st AB

5.0%

Through AB2

10.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-2%
Contact+16%
Statcast+24%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0348 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher

Park-2% (×0.98)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+640

High

+4000

Low

+405

Med

+590

Avg

+1065

🐾+640

Low +405🐾 HR money zoneHigh +4000

WARMspot score 81

Just below his HR money zone (+430 to +430). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4302026-05-29vs ATLbook line

HomeBat 6thoff RHPCutter

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.6

Proj PA

205

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.155

wOBA

.330

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

23.1

Hard%

37.3

FB%

35.5

Pull%

42.7

Soft%

10.9

GB%

41.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

0.0

FB%

27.3

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

18.2

GB%

54.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

41.4

FB%

36.4

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

10.1

GB%

40.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

42.1

Hard%

34.0

FB%

35.8

Pull%

45.3

Soft%

15.1

GB%

39.6

Away

HR/FB

5.0

Hard%

40.4

FB%

35.1

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

7.0

GB%

43.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (31% of career HRs)
Elite barrel% (12.7)
High barrels/PA (8.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.138↓ vs season .27034 PA · 15d

OPS

.403

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

8-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs ARI	3	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs ARI	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	@ SD	3	1	1	0	.333
06-09	@ SD	1	0	2	0	—
06-08	@ SD	3	1	0	2	.333
06-07	@ STL	3	2	0	0	.667
06-06	@ STL	1	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ STL	4	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
FCCutter12PA	.819	.540	50.0	75.0	75	22.2
CUCurveball14PA	.636	.491	—	50.0	—	24.0
SISinker26PA	.158	.432	5.6	53.3	56	18.2
FF4-Seam Fastball68PA	.048	.339	5.6	33.3	48	18.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.900	.590	50.0	75.0	75	11.8	146	11

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.334	0.0	33.3	33	29.4	146	8

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.272	0.0	27.3	55	13.0	—	13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.512	14.3	85.7	57	17.6	146	16

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.045	.339	5.8	30.8	48	14.0	146	74

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

110

vs SHB

104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lowe.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 5 of 16 career HRs (31%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.240

Barrel %

12.7

Hard Hit %

41.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.370

xBA

.270

Brl / PA %

8.20

Max EV (mph)

112.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

112.7

Avg EV on HRs

104.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

399

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

28.1°

Brl / PA %

8.20

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .395). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

CHChangeup1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

SISinker1

FSSplitter1

FCCutter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP153PA	.269	.545	.911	14.3%	9
vs LHP17PA	—	—	.059	5.9%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home79PA	.392	.609	.925	16.1%	8
Away91PA	.111	.383	.735	10.6%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day74PA	.273	.561	.926	15.8%	3
🐾Night96PA	.215	.429	.742	10.8%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty47PA	.415	.659	.999	5
Runners On81PA	.183	.493	.888	2
RISP47PA	.125	.425	.829	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs66PA	.138	.345	.648	2
1 Out50PA	.302	.558	.918	3
2 Outs54PA	.306	.592	.944	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.