Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.5%

+853

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trevor McDonald (RHP) (0.69 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

9.8%

+924

RBI 1+

33.2%

+201

Hits 1+

56.8%

-131

Hits 2+

15.3%

+555

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

166wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

50wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.6%

95% CI · 20.1–21.0%

+386

Fair odds

1st AB

4.9%

Through AB2

9.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-18%
Contact+23%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0386 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+23% (×1.23)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 2 HR

Now

+855

High

+925

Low

+375

Med

+630

Avg

+620

🐾🐾+855

Low +375🐾 HR money zoneHigh +925

WARMspot score 95

Just below his HR money zone (+660 to +695). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.8

Proj PA

382

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.204

wOBA

.349

wRC+

124

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.5

Hard%

39.5

FB%

48.0

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

17.8

GB%

37.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.6

Hard%

30.4

FB%

47.8

Pull%

34.8

Soft%

17.4

GB%

45.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

23.5

Hard%

43.4

FB%

48.1

Pull%

48.1

Soft%

17.9

GB%

34.0

Home

HR/FB

23.7

Hard%

37.7

FB%

49.4

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

18.2

GB%

36.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

17.1

Hard%

41.3

FB%

46.7

Pull%

49.3

Soft%

17.3

GB%

38.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Trevor McDonald stingy: only 0.69 HR/9
Elite power: .257 ISO
15.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (70% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .895 OPS over last 15 days
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Elite barrel% (15.1)
High barrels/PA (8.0%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.69 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.239↑ vs season .21252 PA · 15d

OPS

.895

ISO

.348

RBI

K-BB

16-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ SF	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	@ COL	3	1	0	1	1	1	.333
06-10	@ COL	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 424ft · 98.2 EV · Cutter
06-09	@ COL	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-07	vs SF	4	1	0	0	0	2	.750
06-06	vs SF	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-05	vs SF	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-04	vs ATH	4	2	1	3	0	2	1.500
💣 446ft · 108.1 EV · Sweeper

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR16PA	.400	.539	33.3	100.0	50	15.8
🐾SLSlidervR24PA	.333	.427	30.8	46.2	62	40.0
🐾CHChangeupvR45PA	.131	.287	3.7	33.3	78	28.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.190	0.0	27.3	36	0.0	50	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.400	.539	33.3	100.0	50	15.8	166	16

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.300	.323	25.0	50.0	75	28.6	50	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.333	.427	30.8	46.2	62	40.0	166	24

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.160	16.7	16.7	67	46.9	50	13
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.131	.287	3.7	33.3	78	28.3	166	45

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

100

🐾vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Happ.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 21 of 30 career HRs (70%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.257

Barrel %

15.1

Hard Hit %

47.4

xwOBA

.341

xBA

.212

Brl / PA %

8.00

Max EV (mph)

111.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Avg EV on HRs

106.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

400

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

3/11

Crushed (105+ mph)

8/11

Avg LA on HRs

29.5°

Brl / PA %

8.00

Sampled across 11 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trevor McDonald · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
58
xwOBA
.539
Whiff%
15.8
HH%
100.0
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.427
Whiff%
40.0
HH%
46.2
BRL%
30.8
Pull%
62
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
13
xwOBA
.287
Whiff%
28.3
HH%
33.3
BRL%
3.7
Pull%
78

Career vs Trevor McDonald (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Trevor McDonald (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	57.5	3.5	41.8	57	.303	23.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY	28.9	4.3	40.9	57	.267	24.2
CHChangeup	13.2	20.0	30.0	60	.375	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker58% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.2	43.8	63	.329	21.1	60
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.6	42.1	50	.274	26.5	54

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	13	.335	22.2	19
vs RHB	6.7	46.7	80	.216	23.1	24

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	22.2	33.3	56	.421	24.1	17
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .454). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

11 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter3

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SL🐾Slider3

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats S · Switch hitter

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP208PA	.294	.559	.953	17.0%	12
vs LHP83PA	.158	.303	.520	12.2%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home145PA	.308	.550	.922	17.4%	9
🐾Away146PA	.199	.413	.728	13.3%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day129PA	.264	.472	.813	16.9%	7
🐾Night162PA	.243	.486	.832	14.4%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty71PA	.250	.453	.735	3
Runners On146PA	.217	.425	.767	7
RISP91PA	.243	.446	.787	5

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs110PA	.322	.591	.973	8
1 Out92PA	.189	.392	.696	3
2 Outs89PA	.229	.432	.769	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-029PA	.679	1.036	1.415	5
1-016PA	.666	.933	1.183	3
0-119PA	.473	.789	1.105	3
2-03PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
0-226PA	.125	.250	.442	1
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-246PA	.065	.152	.239	1
2-254PA	.056	.204	.352	0
3-248PA	.231	.423	.986	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.