Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

11.8%

+749

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs J.T. Ginn (RHP) (1.01 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

10.5%

+854

RBI 1+

33.9%

+195

Hits 1+

63.8%

-177

Hits 2+

21.7%

+362

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

23.6%

95% CI · 23.1–24.1%

+324

Fair odds

1st AB

6.3%

Through AB2

12.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP-2%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

·93F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0448 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games · 1 HR

Now

+380

High

+1190

Low

+350

Med

+445

Avg

+552

🐾+380

Low +350🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1190

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4902026-06-02vs HOUbook line

AwayBat 2ndoff RHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.6

Proj PA

296

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.212

wOBA

.343

wRC+

116

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

21.3

Hard%

39.8

FB%

44.2

Pull%

48.6

Soft%

15.5

GB%

34.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

37.3

FB%

47.1

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

15.7

GB%

35.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

23.2

Hard%

40.8

FB%

43.1

Pull%

51.5

Soft%

15.4

GB%

33.8

Home

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

39.6

FB%

49.5

Pull%

48.5

Soft%

11.9

GB%

29.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

30.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

37.5

Pull%

48.8

Soft%

20.0

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Elite power: .277 ISO
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (65% of career HRs)
93°F — ball flies in warm air
Elite barrel% (12.2)
High barrels/PA (7.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.174↓ vs season .25152 PA · 15d

OPS

.707

ISO

.283

RBI

K-BB

13-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	vs MIA	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-12	vs MIA	4	1	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 391ft · 101.6 EV · Changeup
06-11	vs LAD	4	1	1	2	1	1	1.000
💣 383ft · 103.7 EV · Slider
06-10	vs LAD	4	1	0	2	1	0	.500
06-09	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ ATL	1	1	0	0	0	0	2.000
06-06	@ ATL	4	0	0	1	0	3	—
06-05	@ ATL	3	0	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR14PA	.143	.283	7.7	38.5	54	17.2
🐾FCCuttervR21PA	.294	.350	0.0	53.3	80	24.3
🐾CHChangeupvR31PA	.357	.395	11.5	38.5	65	26.9
🐾SLSlidervR26PA	.261	.316	7.1	57.1	86	36.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.377	0.0	46.7	73	15.8	62	23
vs RHPTONIGHT	.143	.283	7.7	38.5	54	17.2	162	14

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.294	.350	0.0	53.3	80	24.3	162	21

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.357	.395	11.5	38.5	65	26.9	162	31

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.273	.279	11.8	29.4	77	35.4	62	23
vs RHPTONIGHT	.261	.316	7.1	57.1	86	36.5	162	26

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lowe.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 33 of 51 career HRs (65%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.277

Barrel %

12.2

Hard Hit %

44.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.356

xBA

.251

Brl / PA %

7.70

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

111.1

Avg EV on HRs

105.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/12

Avg LA on HRs

32.3°

Brl / PA %

7.70

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

J.T. Ginn · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.283
Whiff%
17.2
HH%
38.5
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
54
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.350
Whiff%
24.3
HH%
53.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
18
xwOBA
.395
Whiff%
26.9
HH%
38.5
BRL%
11.5
Pull%
65
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs J.T. Ginn (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.500

RBI

K-BB

0-0

J.T. Ginn (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	35.0	6.8	41.2	62	.351	29.1
FCCutter	18.6	8.3	38.2	75	.343	15.8
CHChangeup	18.3	5.6	26.5	75	.180	23.1
SLSlider	16.0	5.7	39.4	66	.292	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	9.4	40.6	75	.404	25.6	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	45.2	52	.309	31.4	68

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	13.6	50.0	82	.454	12.5	31
vs RHB	0.0	21.4	64	.143	—	15

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	29.4	77	.190	24.2	51
vs RHB	no sample

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.6	50.0	50	.391	18.5	24
vs RHB	5.9	35.3	82	.202	19.1	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .532). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

CHChangeup2

CUCurveball1

STSweeper1

FCCutter1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 16 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP200PA	.329	.601	.966	15.3%	13
vs LHP84PA	.158	.342	.592	5.8%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home160PA	.236	.457	.776	15.7%	8
🐾Away124PA	.331	.606	.953	8.6%	9

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day125PA	.278	.519	.855	14.9%	8
🐾Night159PA	.277	.525	.852	10.8%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty114PA	.333	.588	.921	9
Runners On126PA	.257	.477	.787	7
RISP77PA	.250	.485	.784	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs85PA	.150	.397	.738	2
1 Out111PA	.333	.573	.906	8
2 Outs88PA	.325	.575	.893	7

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Mon.