Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.7%

+929

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #4Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.3%

+970

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

63.3%

-173

Hits 2+

21.1%

+373

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.3%

95% CI · 9.9–10.6%

+874

Fair odds

1st AB

2.8%

Through AB2

5.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact+12%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast-12%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0275 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-12% (×0.88)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+510

High

+1135

Low

+585

Med

+725

Avg

+764

+510

Low +585High +1135

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.5

Proj PA

234

HR / PA

.028

ISO

.146

wOBA

.325

wRC+

102

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.0

Hard%

31.7

FB%

34.8

Pull%

29.6

Soft%

11.2

GB%

46.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

33.0

FB%

46.2

Pull%

35.2

Soft%

12.1

GB%

40.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.1

Hard%

31.1

FB%

29.6

Pull%

27.0

Soft%

10.7

GB%

49.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

15.7

Hard%

34.6

FB%

40.2

Pull%

27.6

Soft%

9.4

GB%

41.7

Away

HR/FB

6.1

Hard%

29.4

FB%

30.6

Pull%

31.3

Soft%

12.5

GB%

50.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (53% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .862 OPS over last 15 days
Already has 1 HR / 2 RBI off this SP in 12 PA
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.314↑ vs season .24854 PA · 15d

OPS

.862

ISO

.215

RBI

K-BB

10-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	4	2	0	1	0	1	.500
06-16	vs MIA	4	2	1	3	0	0	1.250
💣 447ft · 105.7 EV · Sinker
06-15	vs MIA	0	0	0	1	0	0	—
06-14	@ MIL	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	@ MIL	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	@ TOR	5	2	1	3	0	0	1.000
💣 — · 101.2 EV · Slider
06-09	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball80PA	.160	.263	3.4	35.7	42	18.2
🐾STSweeper22PA	—	.183	0.0	33.3	31	19.4
🐾SISinker75PA	.073	.333	6.2	56.7	55	13.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.207	.250	4.3	26.1	44	9.3	85	32
vs RHP	.109	.273	2.8	44.4	42	15.8	74	54

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.236	0.0	35.7	36	25.8	74	23

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.111	.301	7.1	50.0	43	3.6	85	20
vs RHP	.074	.340	6.0	56.0	58	14.3	74	59

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bohm.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Projected10 of 19 HRs · 53%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 10 of 19 career HRs (53%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.142

Barrel %

4.6

Hard Hit %

40.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.298

xBA

.248

Brl / PA %

3.60

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.6

Avg EV on HRs

100.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

376

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

3.60

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.263
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
35.7
BRL%
3.4
Pull%
42
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 80 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.183
Whiff%
19.4
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
31
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 22 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.333
Whiff%
13.3
HH%
56.7
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
55

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.273AVG · limited (12 PA)

OPS

.795

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .388). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 15 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP193PA	.113	.345	.630	3.7%	5
vs LHP86PA	.205	.423	.690	5.6%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home137PA	.215	.446	.745	5.1%	7
Away142PA	.075	.299	.560	3.4%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day113PA	.128	.356	.666	3.1%	3
Night166PA	.150	.377	.636	5.1%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty91PA	.103	.273	.471	2
Runners On121PA	.144	.423	.770	3
RISP70PA	.242	.552	.923	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs99PA	.170	.409	.702	4
1 Out85PA	.114	.329	.588	2
2 Outs95PA	.137	.364	.648	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.