Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
8.0%
+1155
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Sandy Alcantara (RHP) (1.11 HR/9) · park 92
Batting #5Projected lineup
2+ RBI
8.4%
+1093
RBI 1+
32.0%
+213
Hits 1+
61.9%
-163
Hits 2+
19.8%
+405
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
7.5%
95% CI · 7.2–7.8%
+1226
Fair odds
1st AB
1.9%
Through AB2
3.6%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park-8%
vs SP-12%
Contact+9%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast-13%
SP Statcast-4%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sandy Alcantara (RHP)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0271 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj
Park-8% (×0.92)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-13% (×0.87)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)
SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)
Discipline+1% (×1.01)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games · 1 HR
Now
+1155
High
+925
Low
+550
Med
+665
Avg
+682
🐾+1155
Low +550🐾 HR money zoneHigh +925
BELOW ZONEspot score 59
Longer price than he's homered at (+550 to +550). Model sees less pop tonight.
⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+5502026-06-06vs CHWbook line
HomeBat 4thoff RHPCutter
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-16 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
8.6
Proj PA
314
HR / PA
.027
ISO
.146
wOBA
.328
wRC+
106
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG
Season
HR/FB
10.5
Hard%
27.8
FB%
35.8
Pull%
29.7
Soft%
12.7
GB%
45.8
vs LHP
HR/FB
12.1
Hard%
32.3
FB%
50.8
Pull%
35.4
Soft%
15.4
GB%
35.4
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
9.3
Hard%
25.9
FB%
29.3
Pull%
27.2
Soft%
11.6
GB%
50.3
🐾Home
HR/FB
15.0
Hard%
30.9
FB%
41.2
Pull%
27.8
Soft%
11.3
GB%
42.3
Away
HR/FB
5.6
Hard%
25.2
FB%
31.3
Pull%
31.3
Soft%
13.9
GB%
48.7
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
2.0 🐾
DART THROW
🏟Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
📍Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (53% of career HRs)
·Park drag (92)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.255↑ vs season .24050 PA · 15d
OPS
.706
ISO
.171
HR
2
RBI
11
K-BB
9-2
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-15
vs MIA
0
0
0
1
0
0
—
06-14
@ MIL
4
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-13
@ MIL
5
1
0
0
0
2
.200
06-12
@ MIL
3
0
0
0
0
0
—
06-10
@ TOR
5
2
1
3
0
0
1.000
💣 — · 101.2 EV · Slider
06-09
@ TOR
4
0
0
0
0
2
—
06-08
@ TOR
3
1
0
1
1
0
.333
06-07
vs CHW
3
2
0
2
1
0
1.000
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR56PA
.019
.301
4.3
57.4
60
14.8
🐾CHChangeupvR5PA
.200
.143
0.0
50.0
75
10.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR54PA
.109
.273
2.8
44.4
42
16.3
🐾FCCuttervR24PA
.261
.372
4.5
36.4
55
8.3
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.111
.301
7.1
50.0
43
3.6
88
20
vs RHPTONIGHT
.019
.301
4.3
57.4
60
14.8
64
56
CHChangeup
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.267
.375
7.1
21.4
57
14.3
88
16
vs RHPTONIGHT
.200
.143
0.0
50.0
75
10.0
64
5
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.214
.256
4.5
27.3
41
9.4
88
31
vs RHPTONIGHT
.109
.273
2.8
44.4
42
16.3
64
54
FCCutter
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.167
.160
0.0
50.0
50
9.1
88
6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT
.261
.372
4.5
36.4
55
8.3
64
24
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
131
🐾vs RHB
92
vs SHB
111
Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bohm.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected2 of 19 HRs · 11%
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 10 of 19 career HRs (53%).
Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Sandy Alcantara · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Tough matchup
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.301
Whiff%
14.8
HH%
57.4
BRL%
4.3
Pull%
60
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
23
xwOBA
.143
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.273
Whiff%
16.3
HH%
44.4
BRL%
2.8
Pull%
42
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 54 PA this season.
Career vs Sandy Alcantara (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
.667AVG · small sample (3 PA)
OPS
1.334
HR
0
RBI
1
K-BB
0-0
Sandy Alcantara (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
SISinker
23.9
6.1
41.1
54
.320
16.1
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY
22.5
4.6
34.5
71
.312
22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball
19.7
10.6
47.5
42
.349
19.0
FCCutter
13.0
3.4
25.0
55
.292
14.7
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
SISinker24% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
9.6
46.2
46
.323
15.6
68
vs RHB
2.1
31.9
62
.317
15.0
57
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY23% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
4.5
27.3
64
.331
17.6
81
vs RHB
4.8
57.1
95
.269
31.2
34
FF4-Seam Fastball20% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
13.0
52.2
46
.401
15.6
61
vs RHB
5.0
50.0
35
.234
28.6
29
FCCutter13% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
7.1
28.6
50
.352
10.7
18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
20.0
60
.240
33.3
22
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .388). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft
4 HRs this season
vs RHP 1vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FCCutter1
CHChangeup1
KCKnuckle-Curve1
FF4-Seam Fastball1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
4
games since last HR
13
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 8.0 games · 30 PA (1 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP186PA
.100
.318
.592
3.2%
4
vs LHP85PA
.208
.429
.700
5.7%
4
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Home129PA
.204
.416
.703
4.5%
6
Away142PA
.075
.299
.560
3.4%
2
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Day109PA
.135
.351
.654
3.2%
3
Night162PA
.133
.353
.606
4.5%
5
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty90PA
.103
.264
.453
2
Runners On116PA
.121
.384
.720
2
RISP66PA
.203
.481
.829
2
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs97PA
.175
.419
.718
4
1 Out82PA
.119
.303
.535
2
2 Outs92PA
.105
.329
.612
2
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Wed.
