Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.4%

+774

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

10.3%

+872

RBI 1+

33.7%

+197

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.0%

95% CI · 5.8–6.3%

+1560

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

2.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact-16%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0192 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games

Now

+870

High

+4000

Low

+450

Med

+905

Avg

+1221

+870

Low +450High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.5

Proj PA

179

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.118

wOBA

.310

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.2

Hard%

27.6

FB%

29.5

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

13.5

GB%

48.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

13.6

FB%

19.0

Pull%

22.7

Soft%

13.6

GB%

66.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

29.7

FB%

31.0

Pull%

37.2

Soft%

13.5

GB%

46.2

Home

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

27.0

FB%

28.8

Pull%

27.0

Soft%

14.9

GB%

46.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

28.1

FB%

30.1

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

12.5

GB%

50.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (50% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .777 OPS over last 15 days
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.319↑ vs season .25051 PA · 15d

OPS

.777

ISO

.085

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ BOS	1	1	0	0	0	1.000
06-16	@ BOS	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-14	vs NYY	5	3	1	0	0	.800
06-13	vs NYY	4	0	0	1	3	—
06-12	vs NYY	4	1	0	0	2	.250
06-10	vs PHI	3	1	0	1	2	.333
06-09	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-08	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball42PA	.028	.333	0.0	34.5	36	19.4
🐾FCCutter12PA	—	.289	0.0	25.0	50	30.0
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball14PA	.143	.374	0.0	50.0	67	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.425	0.0	0.0	0	36.4	—	6
vs RHP	.028	.323	0.0	40.0	40	13.1	131	42

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.297	0.0	28.6	43	28.6	131	11

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.181	.352	0.0	44.4	67	15.8	131	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lukes.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Confirmed0 of 8 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 4 of 8 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.333
Whiff%
19.4
HH%
34.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
36
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.289
Whiff%
30.0
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .334). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP114PA	.095	.438	.819	1.0%	1
vs LHP22PA	—	.158	.431	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home69PA	.047	.297	.601	2.0%	0
🐾Away67PA	.117	.500	.924	—	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day58PA	.094	.358	.668	1.9%	0
Night78PA	.071	.423	.826	—	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty47PA	.024	.233	.510
Runners On57PA	.077	.423	.798
RISP27PA	.083	.375	.683

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs43PA	.135	.486	.915	1
1 Out50PA	.022	.326	.666	0
2 Outs43PA	.097	.390	.716	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.