Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.4%

+864

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Estes (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

9.7%

+930

RBI 1+

33.2%

+201

Hits 1+

65.2%

-187

Hits 2+

23.0%

+334

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.6%

95% CI · 6.3–6.9%

+1414

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP+40%
Contact-17%
Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Estes (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0170 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+40% (×1.40) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-7% (×0.93)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games

Now

+865

High

+1565

Low

+505

Med

+812

Avg

+809

+865

Low +505High +1565

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.5

Proj PA

269

HR / PA

.017

ISO

.125

wOBA

.321

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.2

Hard%

23.9

FB%

36.8

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

16.9

GB%

42.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.0

FB%

31.0

Pull%

30.0

Soft%

23.3

GB%

44.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

38.5

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

15.2

GB%

41.3

Home

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

23.2

FB%

31.8

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

15.9

GB%

40.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

3.6

Hard%

24.7

FB%

41.8

Pull%

43.8

Soft%

17.8

GB%

43.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (50% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .912 OPS over last 15 days
87°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.318↑ vs season .25949 PA · 15d

OPS

.912

ISO

.227

RBI

K-BB

12-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-09	vs CHC	4	1	0	1	1	1	.250
06-07	vs MIL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-06	vs MIL	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-05	vs MIL	6	2	0	0	0	2	.500
06-03	@ LAA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-02	@ LAA	5	2	0	1	0	1	.600
06-01	@ LAA	4	2	1	1	2	1	1.500
💣 397ft · 104.6 EV · 4-Seamer
05-31	vs SF	3	0	0	1	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
SISinkervR24PA	.238	.460	11.8	47.1	59	14.7
FF4-Seam FastballvR79PA	.149	.351	3.3	24.6	53	13.1
CHChangeupvR17PA	.124	.270	10.0	30.0	70	25.6
CUCurveballvR18PA	.126	.314	0.0	26.7	73	15.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.273	.315	11.1	33.3	44	17.6	95	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.238	.460	11.8	47.1	59	14.7	101	24

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.153	.411	7.7	23.1	54	0.0	95	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	.149	.351	3.3	24.6	53	13.1	101	79

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.124	.270	10.0	30.0	70	25.6	101	17

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.126	.314	0.0	26.7	73	15.4	101	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches McCarthy.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 3 of 6 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.166

Barrel %

5.6

Hard Hit %

24.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.311

xBA

.259

Brl / PA %

4.10

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

100.2

Avg EV on HRs

100.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

401

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

4.10

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .433). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP156PA	.183	.453	.780	4.7%	4
vs LHP37PA	.108	.432	.756	5.9%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home93PA	.223	.529	.877	6.3%	3
🐾Away100PA	.113	.371	.677	3.6%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day60PA	.204	.537	.904	5.1%	1
🐾Night133PA	.150	.408	.716	4.9%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty52PA	.100	.320	.570	0
Runners On85PA	.215	.586	1.013	3
RISP54PA	.250	.636	1.048	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs76PA	.203	.464	.765	2
1 Out60PA	.114	.472	.855	1
2 Outs57PA	.173	.404	.702	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-032PA	.259	.778	1.278	1
1-021PA	.200	.550	.883	1
0-124PA	.087	.391	.683	0
2-07PA	.167	.500	.786	0
0-225PA	—	.120	.240	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-229PA	.138	.414	.690	1
2-223PA	.261	.565	.870	0
3-223PA	—	.167	.514	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.